During today's debrief of the EWP participants, I was able to ask them some specific questions and get feedback on their experience during the week with the GOES-R Proving Ground products. They provided some new ideas as well as some constructive comments and criticism. Here is a breakdown of the information I captured during the discussion...
REGARDING UWCI AND CTC
- In marginal cases when we're not sure whether storms will go it may be more useful
- Nighttime when no visible is around it is definitely more useful
- In winter nighttime snow events, low top convection close to radar not detected... cooling tops earlier might give clue of snow showers occurring... also upslope snow showers, where mountains inhibit radar reflectivities would be a good thing to see
- Didn't have enough time with the products to determine if CI or CTC more useful
- Was slower than radar constantly
- They realize that the products are meant for better temporal and spatial resolutions, but hard to see it's use when not available
- Just because cloud top is cooling, it may not be the dominant storm... may not be n the favorable location or on right side of boundary... using any algorithm without paying any attention to the environment is not proper use of the data in forecasting operations... need to combine and/or base the products on environmental information
- The cases this week were slam dunk, so CI was pretty sure to happen... not so useful then
- During May 19 case over OUN... initially watched for CI on southern storms... once one went, they monitored radar... may be useful in detecting first storm of the day
- "Not a lot of meteorologists are gonna have confidence on just one case... need to see more than that"
REGARDING OTTC
- When not looking at discrete supercells, it may be more useful in detecting embedded supercells
- Need to establish (and communicate) better the relationship between OT and severe weather potential
- Erosion of OT would be much more useful than a detection... updraft collapse or weakening... OT magnitude trends would be much more useful
- Difference the cloud-top temp of the overshoot with model temp of level to give an idea of height above EL for instance would be interesting
- Detection not important alone, especially when seeing core aloft on radar... However, where radar coverage sparse, might be more useful (eg. out west)
REGARDING PSEUDO-GLM
- "We definitely did see an increase in lightning rates associated with increases in storm intensity and cores aloft."
- Want to see less smoothing and more texture... just seeing blobs... knocking down max values (we are working on this)
- In the one very marginal case it was saying that the strongest storms were where the radar said they were.
- Concern raised over closeness to network effects... seemed like higher detections over weaker storms... Eric Bruning mentioned that the flash detection should even that out regardless
- "I appreciated having all the lightning rather than just having CG"
- Would like to see how GLM relates to storm intensity... eg. isolated supercells, multi-cells
- "The data makes sense, but what would that mean to me? What does it really tell me?"
- Marginal cases not a good start to understand the data... need training case.
- Eric Bruning mentioned to the forecasters that satellite flash extents may expand due to cloud scattering
REGARDING INTEGRATING SENSOR DATA
- "I think that's the future, stand alone sensors are less important than integrated together."
- "I envision a virtual world of sort... some fast update model that physically builds the storm based on combined data... model updates every time the sensor data updates."
- "What I want is a Star Trek holodeck."
OVERALL COMMENTS
- 2 weeks would be better... essentially we had 3 days of IOP... would be better to have a few full days of training/archive rather than 3 hours and say "go"
- "Having a tool we are used to using is good" (ie - AWIPS)
- Displaying satellite products (CI especially) might be better used as icons that can be overlaid rather than images... size of icon might indicate intensity... images require toggling between two images rather than overlaying
- Might be useful to provide us with WES data prior to arrival so we can go through it before arriving... or maybe a 'gotomeeting' for training the week before arrival
Friday, May 21, 2010
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Examining 8-km total lightning over Huntsville
.jpg)
Tonight's IOP focuses on severe weather warning over the Huntsville, AL WFO CWA. Huntsville was chosen because of the availability of total lightning data from the Northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA). This provides us the unique opportunity to examine the 8-km pseudo-GLM total lightning flash extent density product in real-time warning operations. Forecasters have noticed a few interesting features of the data, including it's ability to pick up on trailing stratiform lightning over more intense convective storms. The raised the fact that this would be very useful for aviation type forecasts and warnings, as well as lightning warnings for the general public who may think that they are out of danger from lightning after the main convective region passed. They also noticed that the product located areas of more intense updrafts within line segments that are otherwise indistinguishable on radar reflectivity. These more active regions were found to highlight regions where small intense circulations were seen within the lines, which may lead to short tornadic threats. Forecasters were also able to compare the pseudo-GLM data to NLDN via the situational awareness screens on the back wall of the HWT. It was noticed that, particularly in the trailing stratiform regions, that the 8-km total flashes extent densities showed much more information on the total lightning occurring along the line of convection. Total flash rates were available in Google Earth. As expected, lightning jumps were seen with rapidly increasing radar reflectivity. However, the unavailability of these data within the local AWIPS system hindered the forecasters ability to use it effectively, but they expressed lots of interest in seeing this in the future.
The data are being provided with AWIPS as a smoothed grid so that forecasters are able to overlay the data on radar or satellite imagery. The smoothing has somewhat masked the fact that the data are on an 8x8 km grid, but it does seem to show details that are being used to detect more active regions nonetheless. The data are also provided as a running 2-min average, which may be different that what the GLM will provide. However, this may turn out to be a useful way to process the data once the GLM is launched in order to reduce the amount of data being transferred into every AWIPS system.
.jpg)
Thoughts From Today's Look at UAHuntsville's SATCAST_v2 CI Nowcasting Product
From a look at the real-time runs of SATCASTv2 over the past few days, it appears that there are a few issues in terms of performance with respect to, both, false alarms and missed events.
False Alarms:
It seems that early in the day in
stable environments, the algorithm tends to flag developing boundary layer cumulus clouds, forecasting them to convectively initiate, when all they end up doing is growing up to the level of a lower tropospheric temperature inversion and stop development (see Figures below).
Sounding from Springfield, MO
valid at 1200 UTC, 05/20/2010.
Note the low-level temperature inversion.
GOES-13 visible satellite imagery valid at 1432 and 1445 UTC, respectively. Note the rapid early growth of boundary layer fair weather Cu clouds (Above).
SATCAST_v2 CI Nowcast from 1445 UTC imagery (Above).
In some ways, this is discouraging (because they obviously aren't going to produce rainfall anytime soon), but in other ways it is encouraging to see that the system is sensitive enough to detect growing clouds, even in the earliest stages of growth. In order to reduce the number of false alarms in these instances, we've tried to tune some of the CI interest fields (remember, there are 6 of them used for current GOES, and 5 out of 6 of them must "pass" in order for a cloud object to be flagged for a CI forecast) so that they would become less sensitive to very early, lower level cloud growth.
Misses:
On the other hand, SATCASTv2 tends to have issues in highly unstable, uncapped environments, such as the "soupy" airmass that usually is encountered across the southeast U.S. in the warmer months. Often, in these environments, as was the case today (see Figures below), the algorithm becomes much more of a diagnostic tool than a prognostic tool, flagging cloud objects for future CI, right around the same time the corresponding radar scans detect echoes of 35 dBZ or greater... What we consider a "miss". Or.. It simply misses CI altogether. There are, perhaps, two issues that plague the algorithm in these environments:
1) As soon as surface-based air parcels begin to ascend in the unstable airmass, clouds grow very rapidly and become very efficient at producing rainfall, even with relatively narrow initial updrafts. Therefore, tuning the CI interest fields to become less sensitive to early cloud growth in order to decrease our false alarm rates (as mentioned above) actually severely limits us here.
2) Cumulus clouds in these environment sometimes possess very narrow updrafts that remain smaller than the current 4km resolution IR channel pixels can resolve (sub-scale pixels). So, the small-scale objects that we ARE able to track possess pixels that contain sub-scale growing Cu clouds that appear warmer in the respective IR pixels than the cloud tops actually are. There isn't really much we can do about this problem... It is a known limitation of our current GOES satellite instrument... but higher spatial resolution IR data in the coming years aboard GOES-R should dramatically assist with this issue.
SATCASTv2 Forecast at 1415 UTC
05/20/2010
Radar Base Reflectivity at 1416 UTC
05/20/2010
As a team, (myself... John Walker, Wayne Mackenzie, and John Mecikalski) are all working to embrace these challenges and to come up with solutions to these current limitations in the product. One potentially viable solution we may have is to create two sets of CI Interest fields... one set that is more sensitive to early cumulus cloud growth that can be used in highly unstable, uncapped environments (this would at least help with problem #1 under the "Misses"section)... and another set of fields that is less sensitive, to be applied in more stable environments where mainly boundary layer cloud development only is expected (this might help to decrease our number of false alarms).
Of course, we'd need some sort of intermediary input into the algorithm that would divide our domain into regions of "highly unstable and uncapped" locations and regions that are stable with some sort of low-level inversion to prevent much more than very early stage cumulus growth. Perhaps this can be accomplished with high resolution model data (the HRRR maybe)... but the better route would probably be to make use of vertical atmospheric columnar information generated from geostationary sounder data... the higher the vertical resolution the better (only then could subtle low-level inversions be consistently and accurately detected on the fly). Anyway, as reads the title, these are just a few thoughts and observations from the current experiment.
False Alarms:
It seems that early in the day in
stable environments, the algorithm tends to flag developing boundary layer cumulus clouds, forecasting them to convectively initiate, when all they end up doing is growing up to the level of a lower tropospheric temperature inversion and stop development (see Figures below).
Sounding from Springfield, MO
valid at 1200 UTC, 05/20/2010.
Note the low-level temperature inversion.
GOES-13 visible satellite imagery valid at 1432 and 1445 UTC, respectively. Note the rapid early growth of boundary layer fair weather Cu clouds (Above).
SATCAST_v2 CI Nowcast from 1445 UTC imagery (Above).
In some ways, this is discouraging (because they obviously aren't going to produce rainfall anytime soon), but in other ways it is encouraging to see that the system is sensitive enough to detect growing clouds, even in the earliest stages of growth. In order to reduce the number of false alarms in these instances, we've tried to tune some of the CI interest fields (remember, there are 6 of them used for current GOES, and 5 out of 6 of them must "pass" in order for a cloud object to be flagged for a CI forecast) so that they would become less sensitive to very early, lower level cloud growth.
Misses:
On the other hand, SATCASTv2 tends to have issues in highly unstable, uncapped environments, such as the "soupy" airmass that usually is encountered across the southeast U.S. in the warmer months. Often, in these environments, as was the case today (see Figures below), the algorithm becomes much more of a diagnostic tool than a prognostic tool, flagging cloud objects for future CI, right around the same time the corresponding radar scans detect echoes of 35 dBZ or greater... What we consider a "miss". Or.. It simply misses CI altogether. There are, perhaps, two issues that plague the algorithm in these environments:
1) As soon as surface-based air parcels begin to ascend in the unstable airmass, clouds grow very rapidly and become very efficient at producing rainfall, even with relatively narrow initial updrafts. Therefore, tuning the CI interest fields to become less sensitive to early cloud growth in order to decrease our false alarm rates (as mentioned above) actually severely limits us here.
2) Cumulus clouds in these environment sometimes possess very narrow updrafts that remain smaller than the current 4km resolution IR channel pixels can resolve (sub-scale pixels). So, the small-scale objects that we ARE able to track possess pixels that contain sub-scale growing Cu clouds that appear warmer in the respective IR pixels than the cloud tops actually are. There isn't really much we can do about this problem... It is a known limitation of our current GOES satellite instrument... but higher spatial resolution IR data in the coming years aboard GOES-R should dramatically assist with this issue.
SATCASTv2 Forecast at 1415 UTC
05/20/2010
Radar Base Reflectivity at 1416 UTC
05/20/2010
As a team, (myself... John Walker, Wayne Mackenzie, and John Mecikalski) are all working to embrace these challenges and to come up with solutions to these current limitations in the product. One potentially viable solution we may have is to create two sets of CI Interest fields... one set that is more sensitive to early cumulus cloud growth that can be used in highly unstable, uncapped environments (this would at least help with problem #1 under the "Misses"section)... and another set of fields that is less sensitive, to be applied in more stable environments where mainly boundary layer cloud development only is expected (this might help to decrease our number of false alarms).
Of course, we'd need some sort of intermediary input into the algorithm that would divide our domain into regions of "highly unstable and uncapped" locations and regions that are stable with some sort of low-level inversion to prevent much more than very early stage cumulus growth. Perhaps this can be accomplished with high resolution model data (the HRRR maybe)... but the better route would probably be to make use of vertical atmospheric columnar information generated from geostationary sounder data... the higher the vertical resolution the better (only then could subtle low-level inversions be consistently and accurately detected on the fly). Anyway, as reads the title, these are just a few thoughts and observations from the current experiment.
Total lightning IOP plans
At 1:30 PM, the the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) showed lightning activity along the northern Mississippi-Alabama border. The 00Z 20 May NSSL-WRF run in support of the NSSL/SPC EFP shows continued evolution of this convection toward central Alabama by 00-02Z this evening.
The lightning threat field in the NSSL-WRF using the McCaul blended vertically integrated ice / graupel flux method shows lightning activity extending north-south through Alabama at 1Z. The predicted flash rates are somewhat less over the far northern part of the domain.
An intensive operations period is planned in the EWP over the northern Alabama domain beginning 23Z, where Pseudo-GLM total lightning data derived from the NALMA will be examined along traditional radar-based warning methodology for insight about the location and trends of the most intense updrafts and enhanced threat for severe weather. If the model forecasts verify, we expect the most intense convection over central Alabama with weaker convection over the northern part of the state.
EWP daily briefing... 5/20/2010
.jpg)
Here is some very interesting dialogue from today's EWP 1pm daily briefing. Kris Bedka and Justin Sieglaff posed questions to the forecasters regarding the UWCI and OTTC products and these were they're responses...
In the case of multiple towers with equal weak reflectivities on radar, would CI detection over one and not the other add value to your forecast?
"It's plausible. If that's the way it play out. It would be hard to objective analyze that all the time."
"It does have utility in determining which storm will be the dominant storm."
"Depends on the environment."
When visible satellite is not available, is it (CI detections) even more useful? (this was simulated in yesterday's IOP for one forecaster)
"Yes, absolutely" (also agreed by the other forecasters in theory)
Does a continued signal in CI over one storm provide increased confidence?
"The opposite may be more useful in determining if the storm way dying. It's the end of an event that gives people the most trouble." (forecasters reiterated the need for object tracking)
General discussion on overshooting-tops...
"Overshooting-tops are much more common than I was led to believe in school."
"We did observe that the reflectivity core aloft did intensify when an overshoot was detected."
"Would be interesting to see how they correlate with the occurrence of BWERs. If we had temporal continuity (a continuous) detection, we would expect to see a BWER."
"Overshooting dissipation would be interesting in determining the occurrence of tornado or large hail at the surface."
"If we had rapidly updating satellite, it would be much more useful."
"Might also be useful to have a OT track product... would help in determining storm (updraft) motion."
In addition, we discussed the inclusion of satellite data into an end-to-end tracking system to better compare to radar signatures objectively. It was also noted that next year, it is expected that the EWP will have a more robust AWIPS system that will be able to ingest a total feed (similar to a WFO), that will be on all year that can have new experimental products running on it constantly. This will provide year-round testing of products, rather than a month long experiment. They also plan on having this ready earlier in the year before next year's experiment so dataflow issues are reduced.
We showed the NSSL-WRF simulated reflectivity and lightning threat output for the weather briefing to help decide location for which we would localize the AWIPS stations. Simulated reflectivity showed a large line of storms moving through the area sometime around 00Z. The lightning threat fields showed that the most most lightning activity was expected along the southern edge of the line of storms as the evening progressed. We are hoping that we can see if the addition of lightning data on this southern edge will help determine which areas are the bigger threat during the decision making process for warning along the entire line. Since the storms aren't expected to form in the Huntsville area until the later-half of the EWP IOP, it was decided that we would focus on S. TX for the first half of the day, and then following the dinner break we would switch to Huntsville, AL domain to get some pseudo-GLM demonstration. Will provide updates as they arrive.
Severe hail probability forecasts hail over OK
Yesterday's severe storms dropped baseball sized hail just south of Norman, OK. The 0-3 hour severe hail probability forecast picked up on the storms that dropped hail over Oklahoma after 0 UTC. On the attached image, severe hail is plotted as blue letter a's from 21-03 UTC... most of which occurred after 0 UTC. The probability forecast made at 2200 UTC was valid until 0100 UTC. The higher probabilities up north represent already tornadic storms occurring over Stillwater, OK that have had a history of producing hail in the past. The intensifying probabilities extending south picked up well the storms that would produce hail in the near future.
Overshooting Top Detections Identify Period of Frequent Severe Weather 5/19/2010
The overshooting top (OT) detection product detected a period of frequent severe weather reports for the 19 May 2010 event. Initially the cloud top brightness temperatures were too warm (> 217.5 K) for the algorithm to detect OT signatures between the time of the first reported tornado at 2028 UTC and 2210 UTC. Our first OT detection occurred at 2210 UTC and these continued throughout the duration of the severe weather event across Oklahoma. Though it may have seemed to the forecasters here at the HWT that the OT product did not have much value over radar based severe storm signals, 31 of the 37 severe storm reports in Oklahoma occurred on or after 2210 UTC. See the graphic below for an accumulated plot of OT detections from 12UTC on the 19th to 12 UTC on the 20th.
NSSL-WRF simulated satellite WV imagery from 5/19/2010
This morning we compared some of the output from the simulated satellite imagery from yesterday's severe weather over Oklahoma. The images attached represent the 2300 UTC band 9 (~6.9 micron) imagery forecasts from both CIRA and UW-CIMSS from yesterday's 0Z run of the NSSL-WRF, as well as the 2302 UTC observed WV image from GOES-13. It should be noted that the forecast imagery and the actual observed imagery do not represent the exact same wavelength (6.9 vs 6.7 micron), so the colors on the enhancement and the extent of cold cloud tops will not be exactly the same. Nonetheless, we were able to make some general comparisons and observations from examining the imagery.
May 19, 2010 2302 UTC observed GOES-E WV imagery
May 19, 2010 2300 UTC NSSL-WRF CIRA simulated GOES-R band 9 imagery
May 19, 2010 2300 UTC NSSL-WRF UW-CIMSS simulated GOES-R band 9 imagery
Overall, the NSSL-WRF did a good job simulating the location and timing of convection over most of the CONUS. Terrain induced convection along the Rockies was also well captured by the model. There were a few places where the NSSL-WRF may have been a little fast (such as southern OK) or a little slow (such as over LA) in developing convection. The simulated satellite imagery correctly estimated the timing, location and extent of the development of storms over northern OK that ended up having many severe storm reports, including multiple tornadoes.
Comparing the two simulated satellite outputs, we can see a difference between the two runs, with the CIRA trending towards 'warmer' images (increase in red hues). The two outputs provided by UW-CIMSS and CIRA have different methods of performing the radiative transfer within the model. It is expected that this is the cause of the differences, and these will be examined in more detail next week when participants directly related to the simulated satellite imagery arrive.
Overall, the NSSL-WRF did a good job simulating the location and timing of convection over most of the CONUS. Terrain induced convection along the Rockies was also well captured by the model. There were a few places where the NSSL-WRF may have been a little fast (such as southern OK) or a little slow (such as over LA) in developing convection. The simulated satellite imagery correctly estimated the timing, location and extent of the development of storms over northern OK that ended up having many severe storm reports, including multiple tornadoes.
Comparing the two simulated satellite outputs, we can see a difference between the two runs, with the CIRA trending towards 'warmer' images (increase in red hues). The two outputs provided by UW-CIMSS and CIRA have different methods of performing the radiative transfer within the model. It is expected that this is the cause of the differences, and these will be examined in more detail next week when participants directly related to the simulated satellite imagery arrive.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
EWP engaged in IOP on tornadic supercells in W. OK
The EWP is now issuing experimental warnings and severe weather statements for the multiple tornadic supercells in western and central OK using GOES-R Proving Ground and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) products. Convective initiation has been continuously detected by the UWCI and CTC products in advance of significant reflectivities on radar. Overshooting tops are beginning to be detected (2210 UTC) on the northern-most supercells, however, they may not provide additional information (eg. storm reports) forecasters already have available at this time.
EWP ready to go... 5/19/2010
Just got done with EWP's daily afternoon briefing and we have selected to localize over Norman for the day on both teams due to the obvious severe weather threat over the area this evening.
Some notes from the briefing...
1) Localization selection yesterday automatically selected GOES-West for the satellite imagery, which caused us to lose the RSO imagery for the entire IOP... this was noted to the coordinators and should not happen again.
2) Kris Bedka showed a 24-hour verification in the briefing (and earlier in this blog) that OTs did occur in concurrence with severe weather last night and matched the tracks of the severe reports very well.
3) Justin Sieglaff showed us the verification for the NSSL-WRF simulated satellite imagery from the beginning of today and the forecasts match with the current actual imagery from the same time... so we were able to determine that the NSSL-WRF was accurately developing cloud features within its forecasts.
4) The NSSL-WRF lightning threat forecast was shown to the forecasters for this evening and it helped us identify which storms may have stronger updrafts because of their increased lightning output, which we couldn't necessarily determine from the synthetic satellite or radar output.
Will be providing updates as the day progresses...
Some notes from the briefing...
1) Localization selection yesterday automatically selected GOES-West for the satellite imagery, which caused us to lose the RSO imagery for the entire IOP... this was noted to the coordinators and should not happen again.
2) Kris Bedka showed a 24-hour verification in the briefing (and earlier in this blog) that OTs did occur in concurrence with severe weather last night and matched the tracks of the severe reports very well.
3) Justin Sieglaff showed us the verification for the NSSL-WRF simulated satellite imagery from the beginning of today and the forecasts match with the current actual imagery from the same time... so we were able to determine that the NSSL-WRF was accurately developing cloud features within its forecasts.
4) The NSSL-WRF lightning threat forecast was shown to the forecasters for this evening and it helped us identify which storms may have stronger updrafts because of their increased lightning output, which we couldn't necessarily determine from the synthetic satellite or radar output.
Will be providing updates as the day progresses...
UWCI Nowcasts CI in western OK
The University of Wisconsin Convective Initiation (UWCI) detected vertically growing and hence cooling clouds along a dryline along the Texas/Oklahoma border at 1903 UTC 19 May 2010. This first indication of convective initiation is shown in the figure. The CI nowcast category '1' is indicative of cooling warm water cloud. An inspection of the Norman, OK NWS 0.5 degree base reflectivity shows the UWCI algorithm provided 13 minute lead-time over the first 35+ dBZ radar echo. Given the distance of the storm from the Norman radar, the first 35+ dBZ radar echo was indicated at 1916 UTC occurred at approximately 17,000 feet above ground level. The UWCI algorithm continued to show significant cooling rates and more mature CI nowcast categories in subsequent satellite scans. Further updates will be provided as time warrants.
UAH SATCAST_v2 shows promising results...
SATCAST_v2 CI Nowcast at 1815 UTC, 05/19/2010.... Still a long way to go in terms of success and development, but we'll take the small gains when they come. Here, we have an example of SATCAST_v2 forecast (produced from the 1815 UTC GOES-13 imagery) getting a few hits on some cells going up along the dryline near the OK/TX-panhandle border on a very important "High Risk" day. The lead time before CI (>= 35 dBZ radar echo) is about an hour or a little less for this case. Of course, there were a few growing boundary layer clouds that were flagged in some other locations and at some other times that didn't actually CI, but it was at least picking up on lower level cloud growth. As I said.. still a long way to go.. but off to a great start!
Radar at 1813 UTC (above)
Radar at 1859 UTC (above)
Radar at 1916 UTC (above)
Radar at 2001 UTC (above)Overshooting Top Detection Isolates Severe Storms
The GOES-R overshooting top detection algorithm identified regions with severe storm reports quite well between 12 Z on 18 May and 12 Z on 19 May 2010. The images below show overshooting top detections and SPC severe storm reports over this time period. For the most significant severe storm over the TX Panhandle, the first overshooting top detection occurred about 30 mins after the first severe storm report, but the the product later followed the track of severe reports quite well and stopped detecting overshoots when the storm was no longer severe. Other severe storms across this domain were also identified by this product.
Bullseye over Norman
Today's SPC convective outlook has a high risk for severe weather located directly over Norman, OK and the OKC metro. SPC forecasters are expecting a 30% hatched chance of tornado, 45% hatched chance of severe hail and 30% chance of severe wind due to the high amounts of CAPE and weak capping over a wide area from central TX up into southern KS and eastward into western AR. Sounding hodographs are already strongly curved in the area covered by the moderate and models expect them the strengthen into the afternoon, leading to an increase in tornadic potential.
The EFP has been making forecasts for severe weather over the area throughout the morning (see image below). Currently we are monitoring the convective initiation products in expectation of initial convection to develop relatively rapidly in the afternoon (see image below). We have discovered that the SATCAST product is not currently providing output during 7-min Rapid-Scan Operation (RSO) scans. The product still works during the normal 15-min CONUS scans during the RSO. It has been pointed out to the developers and hopefully this will be added soon, which is expected to greatly increase their capability to detect and follow cloud objects. EWP operations will begin in the next few hours and will also monitor the convective initiation products.
.jpg)
Stay tuned...
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Up and running...
At the beginning of the day we monitored the SATCAST product to make sure the data delivery was consistent. No problems were observed until the 1915 UTC update when no data arrived. The 1932 UTC data arrived on time, but the 1915 UTC never came in. The rest of the day performed well so we assumed this was a one time issue. More detailed subjective analysis of the product's performance will be noted in the days to come as we have more chances to look at it.
Following the EWP daily briefing at 2pm, we were given the opportunity to show the EWP forecasters the simulated satellite imagery, lightning threat and severe hail probability that are being provided to the EFP participants. We took about a half hour to explain how the products are developed and what they show and the forecasters seemed very interested and would like to seem them prior to the EWP IOP starting at 4pm. Following that, we all participated in the EFP daily briefing, where we again explained the simulated satellite and lightning threat output to the ~35 people in the room. EFP participants, particularly in the aviation forecast team, expressed interest in using at the lightning threat for their forecasts. The severe and QPF forecast teams have already been looking at the simulated satellite imagery.
2000 UTC SPC day-1 outlook
The EWP IOP began immediately following the EFP daily briefing focusing on the area covered by SPC's moderate risk of severe over the TX panhandle and SE CO (see image above). One team acted as the Pueblo WFO, while one acted as the Amarillo WFO. Unfortunately, an abundance of cirrus was over the area, so demonstration of the UWCI and CTC products was extremely limited. The OTTC product was monitored during warning operations and a few detections were seen. Feedback captured from the Pueblo WFO group indicated the OTTC detection provided them with additional confidence in determining the threat of severe within ongoing convection. The Amarillo WFO group did not have any OTTC detections over their area and, once again, back-to-back 30-minute scans around 0 UTC severely affected the ability to evaluate the product. Towards the end of the IOP, GOES-R visiting scientists discussed with the EWP coordinator about delivering satellite data into their WDSSII end-to-end storm tracker to be combined with radar and lightning data to depict the entire life cycle of a convective storm. This would be a valuable tool to work on in the near future.
Following the EWP daily briefing at 2pm, we were given the opportunity to show the EWP forecasters the simulated satellite imagery, lightning threat and severe hail probability that are being provided to the EFP participants. We took about a half hour to explain how the products are developed and what they show and the forecasters seemed very interested and would like to seem them prior to the EWP IOP starting at 4pm. Following that, we all participated in the EFP daily briefing, where we again explained the simulated satellite and lightning threat output to the ~35 people in the room. EFP participants, particularly in the aviation forecast team, expressed interest in using at the lightning threat for their forecasts. The severe and QPF forecast teams have already been looking at the simulated satellite imagery.
The EWP IOP began immediately following the EFP daily briefing focusing on the area covered by SPC's moderate risk of severe over the TX panhandle and SE CO (see image above). One team acted as the Pueblo WFO, while one acted as the Amarillo WFO. Unfortunately, an abundance of cirrus was over the area, so demonstration of the UWCI and CTC products was extremely limited. The OTTC product was monitored during warning operations and a few detections were seen. Feedback captured from the Pueblo WFO group indicated the OTTC detection provided them with additional confidence in determining the threat of severe within ongoing convection. The Amarillo WFO group did not have any OTTC detections over their area and, once again, back-to-back 30-minute scans around 0 UTC severely affected the ability to evaluate the product. Towards the end of the IOP, GOES-R visiting scientists discussed with the EWP coordinator about delivering satellite data into their WDSSII end-to-end storm tracker to be combined with radar and lightning data to depict the entire life cycle of a convective storm. This would be a valuable tool to work on in the near future.
Monday, May 17, 2010
Day One
Today marks the beginning of the 2010 Spring Experiment. Of course, any new experiment will have it's share of problems. Today was spent making sure all of the products we are providing to the EFP and EWP come in correctly and display properly. The SATCAST convective initiation nowcast product was not coming in to the HWT's N-AWIPS systems until the end of the day. We have finally convinced ourselves that we have solved all the problems with the dataflow and will watch it tomorrow for any irregularities. The NSSL-WRF simulated satellite imagery and lightning threat were being delivered successfully to the EFP within the HWT's N-AWIPS systems and some participants have started looking at them during forecast exercises (see image below). The 0-3 hour severe hail probability and Nearcast products were also available.
EFP participant Chris Melick looking at NSSL-WRF simulated water vapor imagery on HWT N-AWIPS system.
The UWCI, CTC and OTTC products were successfully being provided within the EWP's AWIPS and WDSSII systems. However, the thermal couplet output of the OTTC was not being received and this issue has been raised to the product developers. This is being solved and should be available by next week's activities. The 8-km pseudo-GLM product is available for the OK area only at this point, but efforts are being done to obtain this data from all four networks and should be completed by the end of this week. Today also marked the first occurrence of the GOES-R product training within the EWP. Training was completed on time and forecasters seemed very receptive of the information. More detailed feedback will be captured within the surveys collected by the EWP following every IOP.
Today's IOP within the EWP was very light and basically consisted of familiarizing all the forecasters with the systems while bugs were worked out. The GOES-R Proving Ground participants did notice that the 30-minute full-disk and calibration scans around 0 UTC adversely affected the ability of forecasters to evaluate the UWCI, CTC and OTTC products. However, there were moments where the OTTC product was making detections with some severe convection over S. TX (see images below). Detailed feedback was not captured since the IOP today was informal and no surveys were done. The 0 UTC scan limitations was mentioned to the EWP coordinators, as well as the forecasters as something to be aware of. Forecasters also discovered other necessary steps to display the data properly within AWIPS that were unknown by the EWP coordinators. This information has also been captured and will be passed on to future participants.
Overshooting-top detections (top) and concurrent visible imagery (bottom) for 0015 UTC on 18 May, 2010
The UWCI, CTC and OTTC products were successfully being provided within the EWP's AWIPS and WDSSII systems. However, the thermal couplet output of the OTTC was not being received and this issue has been raised to the product developers. This is being solved and should be available by next week's activities. The 8-km pseudo-GLM product is available for the OK area only at this point, but efforts are being done to obtain this data from all four networks and should be completed by the end of this week. Today also marked the first occurrence of the GOES-R product training within the EWP. Training was completed on time and forecasters seemed very receptive of the information. More detailed feedback will be captured within the surveys collected by the EWP following every IOP.
Today's IOP within the EWP was very light and basically consisted of familiarizing all the forecasters with the systems while bugs were worked out. The GOES-R Proving Ground participants did notice that the 30-minute full-disk and calibration scans around 0 UTC adversely affected the ability of forecasters to evaluate the UWCI, CTC and OTTC products. However, there were moments where the OTTC product was making detections with some severe convection over S. TX (see images below). Detailed feedback was not captured since the IOP today was informal and no surveys were done. The 0 UTC scan limitations was mentioned to the EWP coordinators, as well as the forecasters as something to be aware of. Forecasters also discovered other necessary steps to display the data properly within AWIPS that were unknown by the EWP coordinators. This information has also been captured and will be passed on to future participants.
Welcome!
This year the GOES-R Proving Ground is directly participating within the two existing Spring Experiment activities from previous years within NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT). Starting at 7:30am, Experimental Forecast Program (EFP) is focused on issuing severe, aviation and QPF forecasts for a few hours to over a day in advance. The EFP primarily relies on high resolution numerical model guidance to drive their initial morning forecasts, while updating those same forecasts in the afternoon with updated numerical model guidance and observations from radar and satellite. The three forecast teams (severe, aviation and QPF) swap participants daily and all meet together at 3pm to discuss the day's forecast issues and lessons learned and then conclude their day at 4pm. This year, the GOES-R Proving Ground is providing four products for demonstration within the EFP, with feedback being captured via survey forms and personal communication with researchers and forecasters...
First, UW-CIMSS and CIRA are producing simulated satellite imagery from the 00Z run of the NSSL-WRF for all IR channels to be available on GOES-R once it launches. CIRA produces their imagery from 12-00Z and UW-CIMSS produces forecast imagery from 17-03Z daily. Most of the imagery arrives locally to the HWT by 9am CDT. The overlap period of the two methods allows for comparison between techniques used to create simulated satellite imagery. The overall goal of this effort is to determine the possible utility of the additional IR channels to be available on GOES-R.
The EFP is also being provided with a lightning threat forecast produced from output from the NSSL-WRF by Bill McCaul (USRA) at the University of Alabama - Huntsville. This product is produced with every NSSL-WRF run and provides a forecast of total lightning over the CONUS domain. UAH is providing the EFP with the initial stages of the AWG convective initiation nowcast product, called SATCAST, that provides a 0-2 hour nowcast of convective initiation based on satellite data alone. A 0-3 hour severe hail probability forecast based on satellite IR features and RUC analysis data is being provided by CIRA to the EFP as well. Finally, a 0-6 hour Nearcast using current GOES sounder data provided by UW-CIMSS can be used by the EFP to assist in the forecast of thunderstorm initiation.
Starting at 1pm, the Experimental Warning Program (EWP) focuses on severe weather warning operations (or IOPs) over a CWA sized area that can be moved around the US. Similarly to a working WFO, the EWP uses real-time data provided within an AWIPS system capable of issuing severe weather statements and warnings that can later be compared to actual statements and warnings issued by any WFO nationwide. The GOES-R Proving Ground is demonstrating three products within the EWP this year, with feedback being captured mostly via survey forms filled out by WFO forecasters. First, the UW-CIMSS Convective Initiation (UWCI) nowcast and it's associated Cloud-top Cooling (CTC) rate products are being demonstrated to detect the onset of possibly severe convection for warning operations. UW-CIMSS is also providing an Overshooting-Top and Thermal Couplet (OTTC) detection product to help detect areas of possibly severe weather. Finally, an 8-km total lightning flash extent density product is being produced over four LMA networks across the country (Oklahoma, Alabama, Washington DC and Florida) by NASA SPoRT and NSSL to simulate the spatial resolution of total lightning detection to be available by the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). The EWP with operate as long as severe weather is occurring, usually ending around 9pm. On days when real-time IOPs are not available due to a lack of weather, archived Warning Event Simulator (WES) cases will be provided to the WFO forecasters.
First, UW-CIMSS and CIRA are producing simulated satellite imagery from the 00Z run of the NSSL-WRF for all IR channels to be available on GOES-R once it launches. CIRA produces their imagery from 12-00Z and UW-CIMSS produces forecast imagery from 17-03Z daily. Most of the imagery arrives locally to the HWT by 9am CDT. The overlap period of the two methods allows for comparison between techniques used to create simulated satellite imagery. The overall goal of this effort is to determine the possible utility of the additional IR channels to be available on GOES-R.
The EFP is also being provided with a lightning threat forecast produced from output from the NSSL-WRF by Bill McCaul (USRA) at the University of Alabama - Huntsville. This product is produced with every NSSL-WRF run and provides a forecast of total lightning over the CONUS domain. UAH is providing the EFP with the initial stages of the AWG convective initiation nowcast product, called SATCAST, that provides a 0-2 hour nowcast of convective initiation based on satellite data alone. A 0-3 hour severe hail probability forecast based on satellite IR features and RUC analysis data is being provided by CIRA to the EFP as well. Finally, a 0-6 hour Nearcast using current GOES sounder data provided by UW-CIMSS can be used by the EFP to assist in the forecast of thunderstorm initiation.
Starting at 1pm, the Experimental Warning Program (EWP) focuses on severe weather warning operations (or IOPs) over a CWA sized area that can be moved around the US. Similarly to a working WFO, the EWP uses real-time data provided within an AWIPS system capable of issuing severe weather statements and warnings that can later be compared to actual statements and warnings issued by any WFO nationwide. The GOES-R Proving Ground is demonstrating three products within the EWP this year, with feedback being captured mostly via survey forms filled out by WFO forecasters. First, the UW-CIMSS Convective Initiation (UWCI) nowcast and it's associated Cloud-top Cooling (CTC) rate products are being demonstrated to detect the onset of possibly severe convection for warning operations. UW-CIMSS is also providing an Overshooting-Top and Thermal Couplet (OTTC) detection product to help detect areas of possibly severe weather. Finally, an 8-km total lightning flash extent density product is being produced over four LMA networks across the country (Oklahoma, Alabama, Washington DC and Florida) by NASA SPoRT and NSSL to simulate the spatial resolution of total lightning detection to be available by the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). The EWP with operate as long as severe weather is occurring, usually ending around 9pm. On days when real-time IOPs are not available due to a lack of weather, archived Warning Event Simulator (WES) cases will be provided to the WFO forecasters.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)