Welcome!

This year the GOES-R Proving Ground is directly participating within the two existing Spring Experiment activities from previous years within NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT). Starting at 7:30am, Experimental Forecast Program (EFP) is focused on issuing severe, aviation and QPF forecasts for a few hours to over a day in advance. The EFP primarily relies on high resolution numerical model guidance to drive their initial morning forecasts, while updating those same forecasts in the afternoon with updated numerical model guidance and observations from radar and satellite. The three forecast teams (severe, aviation and QPF) swap participants daily and all meet together at 3pm to discuss the day's forecast issues and lessons learned and then conclude their day at 4pm. This year, the GOES-R Proving Ground is providing four products for demonstration within the EFP, with feedback being captured via survey forms and personal communication with researchers and forecasters...

First, UW-CIMSS and CIRA are producing simulated satellite imagery from the 00Z run of the NSSL-WRF for all IR channels to be available on GOES-R once it launches. CIRA produces their imagery from 12-00Z and UW-CIMSS produces forecast imagery from 17-03Z daily. Most of the imagery arrives locally to the HWT by 9am CDT. The overlap period of the two methods allows for comparison between techniques used to create simulated satellite imagery. The overall goal of this effort is to determine the possible utility of the additional IR channels to be available on GOES-R.

The EFP is also being provided with a lightning threat forecast produced from output from the NSSL-WRF by Bill McCaul (USRA) at the University of Alabama - Huntsville. This product is produced with every NSSL-WRF run and provides a forecast of total lightning over the CONUS domain. UAH is providing the EFP with the initial stages of the AWG convective initiation nowcast product, called SATCAST, that provides a 0-2 hour nowcast of convective initiation based on satellite data alone. A 0-3 hour severe hail probability forecast based on satellite IR features and RUC analysis data is being provided by CIRA to the EFP as well. Finally, a 0-6 hour Nearcast using current GOES sounder data provided by UW-CIMSS can be used by the EFP to assist in the forecast of thunderstorm initiation.

Starting at 1pm, the Experimental Warning Program (EWP) focuses on severe weather warning operations (or IOPs) over a CWA sized area that can be moved around the US. Similarly to a working WFO, the EWP uses real-time data provided within an AWIPS system capable of issuing severe weather statements and warnings that can later be compared to actual statements and warnings issued by any WFO nationwide. The GOES-R Proving Ground is demonstrating three products within the EWP this year, with feedback being captured mostly via survey forms filled out by WFO forecasters. First, the UW-CIMSS Convective Initiation (UWCI) nowcast and it's associated Cloud-top Cooling (CTC) rate products are being demonstrated to detect the onset of possibly severe convection for warning operations. UW-CIMSS is also providing an Overshooting-Top and Thermal Couplet (OTTC) detection product to help detect areas of possibly severe weather. Finally, an 8-km total lightning flash extent density product is being produced over four LMA networks across the country (Oklahoma, Alabama, Washington DC and Florida) by NASA SPoRT and NSSL to simulate the spatial resolution of total lightning detection to be available by the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). The EWP with operate as long as severe weather is occurring, usually ending around 9pm. On days when real-time IOPs are not available due to a lack of weather, archived Warning Event Simulator (WES) cases will be provided to the WFO forecasters.