LightningCast for a PGA event

Lightning was a major concern for a PGA event southwest of Lexington, KY. It was a tricky situation, with lots of high cloud cover, but LightningCast gave a fairly consistent signal of high lightning probability near the site (the black "H" in the animation below). One HWT forecaster noted how the probabilities ramped up before the GLM indicated that lightning was advecting toward the event. LightningCast, used with other forms of lightning guidance and interrogation, can help increase situational awareness and confidence for DSS situations.

Figure 1: LightningCast contours (10%, 25%, 50%, 75%), GOES-16 GLM flash-extent density (shaded blue to yellow regions), and GOES-16 ABI Meso2 Day cloud convection RGB (background)

Storm on the Potomac

Moderate instability and good deep-layer shear produced a line of storms near a surface trough in northern Virginia. ProbWind v3 was handling the severe threat better than v2, with a probability of 41% vs. 3%, seven minutes before reports of trees down. PWv3 increased by over 20% at 17:00 UTC, due to increases in the MRMS VIL and 0-3 km lapse rate, with the MRMS azimuthal shears and composite reflectivity also contributing. Forecasters at the HWT have noted this week that PWv3 seems to be better calibrated to the wind threat than its predecessor.