ProbSevere LightningCast v2 adds a new predictor---MRMS Reflectivity -10C. This predictor has been well documented to correspond to electrification in storms, as it observes water particles in the mixed-phase region, where charge separation begins. We use it in LightningCast v2 at approximately 1-km resolution, along with the GOES-R ABI 0.64 µm reflectance (C02, 0.5 km), 1.6 µm reflectance (C05, 1 km), 10.3 µm brightness temperature (C13, 2 km), and 12.3 µm brightness temperature (C15, 2 km).
In the example below, LCv2 is on the bottom left, LCv1 is on the bottom right, and the MRMS Ref. -10C is on top. You can see that there is lightning (as detected from GLM) in a mid-level cloud deck, but obscured by some high-level ice. LCv1 drops probabilities < 10% at numerous times in the animation, due to the uncertain signal from the relatively smooth but not overly cold cloud tops. On the other hand, LCv2 picks up on the re-developing convective cores, as shown in the Ref. -10C pockets of ≥ 35 dBZ (yellow-orange), and correctly maintains a higher probability of lightning throughout the animation.
This is one way in which LCv2 is an improvement over LCv1---in convection that is obscured by moderate-to-thick ice. We've also seen improvement for lightning cessation situations and more "marginal" situations such as for lightning in low-topped convection.