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| Figure 1: SPC 1630Z outlook with 06Z verification. |
A deep shortwave trough and strong 850mb jet brought ample low-level moisture and instability to a well-sheared environment in the Southeast U.S. yesterday. The NOAA SPC issued "Enhanced" outlook noting the potential for strong tornadoes.
ProbTor captured the tornadic threats in Mississippi during the afternoon and then during a second round of storms in the overnight hours. The animations in Figures 2 and 3 show outer contours colored by the ProbTor value (inner contours are colored by probability of any severe), which were configured to only appear when ProbTor ≥ 15%. NWS forecasters can configure this threshold using
these instructions.
In the first bout of storms, tornadoes were observed for storms in Simpson and Smith counties (see
storm time series of predictors), as well as Yazoo and Holmes counties (see
storm time series), and Leake county.
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| Figure 2: ProbSevere/ProbTor contours with MRMS MergedReflectivity and NWS severe weather warnings for 19Z -- 23Z. |
During the second round of storms, a potent thunderstorm dropped tornadoes in Jasper, Clarke, and Lauderdale counties (
storm time series).
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| Figure 3: ProbSevere/ProbTor contours with MRMS MergedReflectivity and NWS severe weather warnings for 02Z -- 05:30Z. |
