Day 3 Wrap Up...Not much to write home about...

Note: The CG Lightning Probability product is not a GOES-R or JPSS funded project.

Well...what can I say... not much convection to speak of today anywhere in the CONUS. There were some thunderstorms that moved through Central and Southern Florida earlier this afternoon but nothing was severe. That being said...I found that the ProbSevere, Lightning Jump and CG Lightning Probability algorithms were still able to pick up on convective cells even in a messy environment. This is very promising!

~Lilly Miller~

Lightning Jump and ProbSevere doing well in "messy" environment

Note: The CG Lightning Probability product is not a GOES-R or JPSS funded project.

A mess of thunderstorms with plenty of lightning is currently making its way across southern Floriday this afternoon. ProbSevere is doing a good job picking up on the convective cells...even in a "messy" environment. In fact...both the Sigma Lightning Jump and CG Lightning Probability also did well in pinpointing individual objects...even over the open ocean.

MRMS Composite Reflectivity (Top Left), MRMS VII iwth Lightning Jump overlaid (Top Right), SRSOR Parallax-Corrected Visible Imagery with ProbSevere overlaid (Bottom Left), CG Experimental Lightning Probability Scale with ENI Total Lightning Cloud to Ground and Cloud Flashes overlaid (Bottom Right)

For example...the cell near Princeton has a 45% ProbSevere Probability corresponding with a 3.0 Sigma Lightning jump and a 93% CG Lightning Probability (20 fl/min) at 1838Z. That cell in particular increased from 35% ProbSevere and 78% CG Prob (with 11 fl/min) at 1834Z to to those higher values in 4 minutes. However, in this situation...the CG Lightning Probability isn't providing much lead time...if at all.

~Lilly Miller~

Probability of CG Lightning Verification (Small Lead Time).

Note: The CG Lightning Probability product is not a GOES-R or JPSS funded project.

The image below shows MRMS Isothermal Reflectivity at the 0C and -20C levels, as well as the probability of CG lightning (colored blobs) at 1810 UTC. The mustard colored blob with the cursor readout showed a 60% probability of CG lightning at 1810 UTC.

The image below shows the same as above, with the addition of CG lightning observations at 1812 UTC. There was a positive lightning strike detected with this storm at 1812 UTC, near the cursor readout. This provided a small lead time for the detection of CG lightning with this cell. JJW

Lightning Probabiltiy Difference Scale1 vs Scale 0

Note: The CG Lightning Probability product is not a GOES-R or JPSS funded project.

Not many lightning strikes going on so far today. Lightning probablility is showing strikes that are occuring. The difference between scale0 and scale1 seems to support the idea that scale 0 might give more specific information over scale one on which storms have the best lightning probabilty. Scale one might be useful for overall early coverage and scale 0 might be a better indicator as more storms develop. 
 -thunder

Lightning Probability scale 1

                                           Lightning Probability scale 0

Experimental CG Lightning Probability

Note: The CG Lightning Probability product is not a GOES-R or JPSS funded project.

Below is an animation of MRMS radar 0.5 km reflectivity with the experimantal CG lightning probability and NLDN CG overlaid. Notice that the experimental CG lightning probability rises to 58% 14 minutes before the first CG strike detected by NLDN. Probablities increased to 67% 5 minutes before the strike, and 72% approximately 2 minutes before the strike. This has potential significant value for providing lead time to outdoor events. In addition, the National Weather Service in Amarillo recently began experimenting with Aviation Weather Warning for lightning for Rick Husband Airport, and this experimental product could potentially allow the office to provide a better service to aviation customers. Other offices provide lightning warnings to airports and likely could potentially benefit from this. I will be watching this product closely throughout the rest of this experiment to see how much lead time it normally provides and how frequent false alarms are. My first impression is very possitive.

-dryadiabat