Lightning Jump and ProbSevere doing well in "messy" environment

Note: The CG Lightning Probability product is not a GOES-R or JPSS funded project.

A mess of thunderstorms with plenty of lightning is currently making its way across southern Floriday this afternoon. ProbSevere is doing a good job picking up on the convective cells...even in a "messy" environment. In fact...both the Sigma Lightning Jump and CG Lightning Probability also did well in pinpointing individual objects...even over the open ocean.

MRMS Composite Reflectivity (Top Left), MRMS VII iwth Lightning Jump overlaid (Top Right), SRSOR Parallax-Corrected Visible Imagery with ProbSevere overlaid (Bottom Left), CG Experimental Lightning Probability Scale with ENI Total Lightning Cloud to Ground and Cloud Flashes overlaid (Bottom Right)

For example...the cell near Princeton has a 45% ProbSevere Probability corresponding with a 3.0 Sigma Lightning jump and a 93% CG Lightning Probability (20 fl/min) at 1838Z. That cell in particular increased from 35% ProbSevere and 78% CG Prob (with 11 fl/min) at 1834Z to to those higher values in 4 minutes. However, in this situation...the CG Lightning Probability isn't providing much lead time...if at all.

~Lilly Miller~