Showing posts with label HWT2026 Visitor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label HWT2026 Visitor. Show all posts

Thursday, June 4, 2026

Gravity waves or other localized circulation in GXI synthetic imagery?

 Today’s GeoXO Imager (GXI) synthetic water vapor transmittance (WVT) imagery off the east coast of Florida/Georgia revealed a series of clear-sky ripple-like features approximately 100 miles off the eastern seaboard (Figure 1).  These features were moving toward the Florida coast in the dominant low-to-mid level northeasterly flow.

Although these ripples are reminiscent of gravity waves, their origin is not clear in this case; they are likely larger scale roll structures associated with shear in the marine environment.

Gravity waves were, however, clearly visible in real Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) WVT imagery over Africa earlier in the day (Figure 2).  Gravity waves are frequently observed in this region north of the ITCZ as waves propagate out of convective complexes.  These waves can be associated with airline turbulence as they propagate outward and upward away from their sources, so the ability to clearly see these waves in clear-sky regions is a benefit of the 0.91 µm channel coming to GXI.  Figure 3 shows the same scene in the 7.35 µm water vapor channel, where the waves are still visible, but considerably less well defined.



Figure 1: “WVT sandwich” product which features synthetic WVT in grayscale (brighter colors = more moist) with the synthetic 5.15 µm imagery overlaid in colors to highlight the location of colder-topped clouds.


Figure 2: Gravity waves from today in FCI WVT imagery over Africa. The waves appear as a series of dark ripples moving north near the center of the image, and likely originated with the ITCZ convection in the bottom-right corner of the image.


Figure 3: The gravity waves are still somewhat visible (though significantly less defined) in the FCI 7.35 µm low-level water vapor channel.  The clarity of the feature in the 0.91 µm-derived WVT product (Figure 2) presents an opportunity for novel uses of the new GXI channel to identify these waves.

VortexTilting




 The Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) from Meteosat-12 provides actual WVT imagery to complement the synthetic WVT imagery created over the CONUS.  The FCI captured a sea breeze over Tunisia and northwestern Libya on June 4.  The moisture moving onshore is marked by the southward moving dark areas denoted by the blue arrows.

Figure 1: FCI WVT image showing a sea breeze over Tunisia and northwestern Libya.

The difference in moisture is also clear when looking at vertical profiles on either side of the sea breeze front (Figs 2 and 3).  The profiles come from the 6hr forecast of the 12z run of the GFS from June 4, 2026.


Figure 2.  Blue and orange dots show approximate location of GFS profiles used to demonstrate the moisture difference across the sea breeze boundary.


Figure 3a. GFS profile in dry air south of the sea breeze front (near orange dot on Figure 2).

Figure 3b. GFS profile in moist air north of the sea breeze front (near blue dot on Figure 2).

One noteworthy aspect of the WVT is that it is not affected by surface or air temperature, something that is an issue when looking at moisture in infrared wavelengths.

Geogxi

Squall Line Development and Downburst Potential over eastern Montana

 1. Satellite Morphology and Convective Mode (2000 UTC)

On the afternoon of June 4, 2026, the focus for severe weather shifts to the border region of Montana and South Dakota as depicted in Figure 1 below.

Synoptic Forcing: An eastward-moving upper-level disturbance and an associated surface cold front are acting as the primary triggers for convection.

Convective Evolution: The 2000 UTC composite satellite image captures the development of a broken-line squall line and bow echo complex. This area of concern for downburst winds currently extends across Carter County, MT, and into northwestern South Dakota.

Precipitation Structure: There is a notable correspondence between the bright yellow shading in the satellite imagery and high radar reflectivity. This indicates intensifying thunderstorms with a large ice-phase precipitation content, a signature highly favorable for robust downburst generation as the ice melts and evaporates during its descent.

2. Thermodynamic Environment: Rapid City Regional Analysis

Sounding data from earlier in the day, shown in Figure 2 below, confirms that the environment was primed for the wind event currently unfolding.

Data Integration: A comparison between the 1700 UTC METOP-C NUCAPS sounding—retrieved approximately 135 km northwest of Rapid City—and the 1800 UTC UNR radiosonde (RAOB) shows excellent agreement in vertical profile structure.

Thermodynamic Signatures: Both profiles exhibit a classic hourglass + inverted-V signature. This setup, characterized by a dry and deeply mixed boundary layer beneath a relatively moist mid-level, is a textbook environment for evaporatively cooled convective outflows.

Downburst Ingredients: The analysis highlights favorable wet-bulb zero heights located near the 700-mb level. Combined with a Wind Gust Potential (WGP) of 49 to 50 knots, the thermodynamic evidence strongly supports the potential for severe downbursts as the squall line impinges on this air mass.


Figure 1: Composite SZA cloud phase distinction, MRMS reflectivity, and LightningCast probability product image at 2000 UTC 4 June 2026.


Figure 2. Comparison between the 1700 UTC METOP-C NUCAPS sounding retrieval 135 km NW of Rapid City, SD (left) and the Rapid City (UNR) RAOB sounding at 1800 UTC 4 June 2026 (right).

StormRangerWX





Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Soundings Capture Unstable Atmosphere over Northeastern South Dakota

1. Satellite Evolution and Pre-Frontal Forcing (2030 UTC)

The afternoon of June 3, 2026, presents a classic setup for convective development across northeastern South Dakota.

Surface Features: A cold front moving eastward, combined with an outflow boundary from a preceding Mesoscale Convective System (MCS), is serving as the primary surface focus for thunderstorm initiation.

Pre-frontal Monitoring: The 2030 UTC composite satellite image captures an area of concern for downburst winds, particularly near Aberdeen, SD.

Cloud Phase Distinction: At this time, the GOES-19 SZA Day Cloud Phase Distinction product in Figure 1 below highlights pre-frontal cumulus development as distinct, blue-shaded "Cu streets," indicating the initial vertical growth of liquid-water clouds before they transition to ice-phase convection. 


Figure 1: Composite SZA cloud phase distinction, MRMS reflectivity, and LightningCast probability product image at 2030 UTC 3 June 2026.

2. Thermodynamic Analysis: The Miller Type 1 Profile (1800 UTC)

Sounding data from 1800 UTC in Figure 2 reveals a volatile environment characterized by a classic severe weather profile.

Sounding Structure: A comparison between the GOES-19 sounding retrieval and the Aberdeen, SD (KABR) radiosonde observation shows a prominent "narrow hourglass" structure.

The "Loaded Gun": This signature closely resembles a Miller Type 1 profile—often referred to as a "loaded gun" sounding—where a moist boundary layer is capped by a warm, dry layer (capping inversion) and steep lapse rates aloft.

Potential Energy: The environment features large CAPE (1694 J/kg on G19 and 2138 J/kg on RAOB) and a calculated Wind Gust Potential (WGP) of 43 to 45 knots.

Figure 2. Comparison between the GOES-19 (G19) sounding retrieval (left) and the Aberdeen, SD (ABR) RAOB sounding at 1800 UTC 3 June 2026 (right).

Figure 3. Comparison between the 1900 UTC NOAA-21 NUCAPS sounding retrieval 40 km NW of Aberdeen, SD (left) and the Aberdeen (ABR) RAOB sounding at 1800 UTC 3 June 2026 (right).

3. Regional Validation: NUCAPS vs. KABR RAOB (1900 UTC)

The regional thermodynamic environment is further validated by satellite-derived sounding retrievals.

Profile Consistency: The 1900 UTC NOAA-21 NUCAPS sounding, retrieved approximately 40 km northwest of Aberdeen, shows excellent structural agreement with the KABR radiosonde.

Downburst Ingredients: Both profiles exhibit favorable wet-bulb zero heights positioned near the 700-mb level, a key factor for maximizing evaporative cooling and subsequent downburst strength.

Forecast Outlook: Thunderstorm downburst occurrence will be most favorable during the late afternoon hours as the eastward-advancing cold front impinges on this highly unstable air mass over the Aberdeen area.

StormRangerWX

Actual WVT Data from FCI

 One of the products demonstrated at this year’s HWT is synthetic water vapor transmittance (WVT) imagery.  The product, a ratio of 0.91 μm to 0.86 μm reflectances, is based on the existence of water vapor absorption at 0.91 μm.  Dividing by 0.86 μm helps to highlight the water vapor signature.  As NOAA does not yet operate a satellite channel at 0.91 μm, synthetic imagery is created for HWT from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model run through the Community Radiative Transfer Model.  However, EUMETSAT’s latest geostationary satellite, Meteosat-12, does contain 0.91 μm and 0.86 μm channels on its Flexible Combined Imager (FCI), and is used to augment the synthetic imagery during HWT.

Figure 1 shows an FCI WVT loop over northeastern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula from 3 June 2026.  The darker regions are indicative of higher amounts of total precipitable water (TPW).  Noteworthy regions of higher TPW can be seen along the west and south coasts of Saudi Arabia and Yemen as moisture moves onshore from the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.  The greater moisture along and equatorward of the Sahel is also very apparent.  Protruding from this reservoir of high TPW is a stream of moisture moving north to southern Algeria and then northeast towards Israel.  The existence of these high moisture areas can be confirmed by the corresponding TPW loop (Figure 2) created from blending retrievals from multiple polar-orbiting satellites.  Additional confirmation of the moisture protrusion over Algeria can be seen in the surface dewpoints at the reporting stations (Figure 3).  The stations in southeast Algeria have dewpoints above 40°F, whereas further north the dewpoints are 30°F or lower.

Figure 1.  WVT product loop over Africa on 3 June 2026.

Figure 2. Corresponding TPW product created from multiple polar-orbiting satellites.


Figure 3.  Surface observations over Algeria around 1300UTC 3 June 2026.  Dewpoint temperature (°F) is shown in blue.  Zooming in may be necessary to read the numbers.

Geogxi

Tuesday, June 2, 2026

Persistent Severe MCS and Downbursts in Southwestern South Dakota

 1. Convective Initiation & MCS Evolution (1900 UTC)

The early afternoon of 2 June 2026 was marked by the development of a persistent mesoscale convective system (MCS) over Fall River County, SD as shown in Figure 1 below.

Satellite Observations: The 1900 UTC composite satellite image shows the system advecting east-northeastward, exhibiting rapidly increasing ice-phase cloud tops and a significant rise in lightning flash rates.

Structural Signatures: At this stage, the MCS already exhibits a well-defined bow echo complex and a prominent rear-flank dry-air notch. These features indicate
that the system is efficiently processing dry mid-level air to generate strong surface outflows.

Figure 1: Composite SZA cloud phase distinction, MRMS reflectivity, and LightningCast probability product image at 1900 UTC 2 June 2026.

2. System Intensification and Dual Bow Echoes (2030 UTC)

By 2030 UTC, Figure 2 shows the convective complex underwent further intensification and expansion as it tracked across southwestern South Dakota.

Complex Organization: The system evolved into a more formidable MCS consisting of two distinct bow echo complexes.

Severe Potential: Each bow echo was accompanied by its own rear-flank dry-air notch. This dual-notch presentation signaled a marked increase in downburst potential, as the system became increasingly organized and capable of producing widespread damaging winds.

Figure 2: Composite SZA cloud phase distinction, MRMS reflectivity, and LightningCast probability product image at 2030 UTC 2 June 2026.

Figure 3. Comparison between the GOES-19 (G19) sounding retrieval 90 km SSE of Rapid City, SD (left) and the Rapid City (UNR) RAOB sounding at 1800 UTC 2 June 2026 (right).


3. Thermodynamic Environment: Rapid City (1800 UTC)

An analysis of the 1800 UTC environment in Figure 3 explains the high-end wind potential observed.

Sounding Profile: A comparison between the GOES-19 sounding retrieval and the Radiosonde observation (KUNR) at Rapid City, SD, reveals a textbook "hourglass-inverted-V" profile.

Instability & Wind Potential: The environment was characterized by large CAPE (1014 to 1584 J/kg). Correspondingly, the Wind Gust Potential (WGP) was calculated between 41 and 47 knots, providing strong evidence for the severe gusts that followed.

4. Regional Validation & Surface Verification

Regional sounding data further confirmed the widespread nature of this volatile environment.

NUCAPS Comparison: A NOAA-21 NUCAPS sounding retrieved at 1919 UTC approximately 150 km southeast of Rapid City showed excellent structural agreement with the UNR radiosonde (RAOB).

Key Ingredients: Both profiles highlighted favorable wet-bulb zero heights for evaporative cooling and robust downburst generation.

Ground Truth: This thermodynamic setup culminated in a significant surface event: a severe 55-knot downburst wind gust was recorded at Cactus Flats, SD, at 2043 UTC— aligning well with the high WGP and structural signatures identified earlier in the afternoon.

Figure 4. Comparison between the 1919 UTC NOAA-21 NUCAPS sounding retrieval 150 km SE of Rapid City, SD (left) and the Rapid City (UNR) RAOB sounding at 1800 UTC 2 June 2026 (right).

StormRangerWX



Moisture advancing east in pre-convective Wyoming environment

 Simulated GeoXO Imager (GXI) imagery revealed the westward extent of higher moisture in the pre-convective environment of eastern Wyoming this afternoon.

Figure 1 shows the water vapor transmittance (WVT, derived from the 0.91 µm channel) in the left panel and the 5.15 µm brightness temperature in the right panel over a five hour period from 16-20 UTC..  A dashed green line indicates the approximate westward extent of the deeper moisture as estimated from the WVT imagery. In this “inverted” color scheme, drier areas appear darker in WVT (as does higher terrain), and moister areas appear whiter; high-topped clouds generally appear dark.  In the last frame of the loop, convection initiates near Douglas along this moisture boundary on the southern end of this green line.

While WVT is sensitive to the total column water vapor, the 5.15 µm channel is only sensitive to water vapor in lower levels, where lower brightness temperatures generally coincide with higher low-level moisture.  It is interesting to note that the WVT and 5.15 µm gradients do not always align with each other, possibly suggesting an evolving vertical distribution of water vapor.  Our future plans include developing methods to utilize these differences to derive information about depth of moisture in the column.

Figure 1: WVT (left panel; inverted color scale so whiter colors=more moist). The green dashed line indicates the approximate westward extent of deeper moisture as estimated from WVT. 

VortexTilting

Thursday, May 14, 2026

Monitoring Downburst-Producing Thunderstorm Development in Southwestern Kansas

 Convective Initiation and Multi-Sensor Signatures

Our analysis begins with a compelling multi-sensor perspective of a vigorous, multicellular, high-based thunderstorm cluster rapidly organizing over southwestern Kansas as depicted in Figure 1. By analyzing a composite of the GOES-19 Cloud Phase Distinction product, LightningCast probabilities, and MRMS base reflectivity, several severe storm signatures become immediately evident. The imagery highlights expansive, cold ice-bearing cloud tops and high localized reflectivity cores, which are strongly correlated with high lightning probabilities. Together, these features highlight an environment highly favorable for robust precipitation loading and subsequent severe downburst generation, specifically targeting the communities of Liberal and Meade, Kansas.

Figure 1: Composite image of GOES-19 SZA Day Cloud Phase Distinction, LightningCast lightning probability, and MRMS radar reflectivity at 1951 UTC 14 May 2026.

Cloud Convection and Downburst Validation

Building upon the initial analysis, the Figure 2 shifts focus to a composite view utilizing the GOES-19 Cloud Convection product alongside LightningCast and MRMS reflectivity. This specific combination provides a clear view of the intense convective cores and robust updrafts associated with the cluster. The impressive convective depth and structural characteristics identified in this imagery directly foreshadowed the surface wind impacts. Validating these satellite and radar signatures, sub-severe downburst wind gusts were recorded shortly near 2000 UTC, with a 44-knot gust observed at Liberal, KS, and a 47-knot gust recorded at Meade, KS.

Figure 2: Composite image of GOES-19 SZA Day Cloud Convection, LightningCast lightning probability, and MRMS radar reflectivity at 2001 UTC 14 May 2026.

Thermodynamic Analysis (GOES-19 & RAP Model)

To understand the thermodynamic drivers behind these severe downbursts, we evaluate the 1900 UTC sounding profiles near Liberal, Kansas. A comparison between GOES-19 derived soundings and the RAP model output in Figure 3 reveals excellent agreement, with both platforms depicting a classic 'inverted-V' thermodynamic profile. This signature, characterized by a deep, dry sub-cloud layer beneath a moist convective layer, is a textbook indicator for evaporatively generated downbursts. Additionally, both profiles show wet-bulb zero heights near the 650-mb level. The integration of these parameters via the Microburst Windspeed Potential Index (MWPI) yielded a calculated Wind Gust Potential (WGP) of 60 to 64 knots, accurately emphasizing the high downburst wind threat.

Figure 3. GOES-19 and RAP model sounding profiles retrieved near Liberal, KS at 1900 UTC 14 May 2026.

Observational Ground-Truth (Dodge City RAOB)

Further solidifying the thermodynamic assessment, the 1800 UTC radiosonde observation (RAOB) launched from nearby Dodge City, Kansas, and shown in Figure 4, serves as critical observational ground-truth. The RAOB data supports the signatures identified in the GOES-19 and RAP model soundings from Figure 3. Featuring the same pronounced inverted-V profile and substantial sub-cloud dry air, the Dodge City sounding confirmed that the regional atmospheric environment across southwestern Kansas was broadly primed for high-based convection and efficient, momentum transfer and severe downburst wind generation.


Figure 4. RAOB sounding profile retrieved at Dodge City, KS at 1800 UTC 14 May 2026.

-StormRangerWX


Dry Signal East of Developing Dry Line?

 An interesting signal developed in the GeoXO synthetic Water Vapor Transmittance (WVT) imagery today across Texas. Higher reflectance values (brighter colors in the WVT) were sandwiched between lower values, both to the west and east, in Central TX.

Figure 1: 4-panel with GeoXO synthetic imagery (5.15 band - top left, WVT - top right) and GOES-19 imagery (IR - bottom left, VIS - bottom right) at ~1800 UTC 14 May 2026.

At first, this signal seemed a bit counterintuitive, as the dry line was expected to develop in western TX, based on today’s briefing and the SPC Convective Outlook. However, when taking a look at the Advected Layered Precipitable Water (ALPW) product at nearly the same time (1800 UTC 14 May 2026), there’s noticeably higher moisture in the 850-700 and 700-500 hPa layers across West TX and New Mexico, and to the east near the TX/LA border.

Figure 2: 4-panel CIRA ALPW at 1800 UTC 14 May 2026.


A 1700 UTC HRRR forecast run, valid for 1800 UTC, just southeast of the TX Panhandle, showed this sharp reduction in moisture in its sounding near 850 hPa. Farther west, this sharp reduction is not evident. Perhaps the dry air around 850 hPa resulted in this counterintuitive WVT signal in TX.

Figure 3: HRRR sounding over North-Central TX at 1800 UTC 14 May 2026.

Figure 4: HRRR sounding over the Texas Panhandle at 1800 UTC 14 May 2026.

-csmith70


Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Squall Line Development over western Pennsylvania


 The issuance of Mesoscale Discussion #708 by NWS/Storm Prediction Center at 1641 UTC established the main area of focus for thunderstorm downburst wind generation as the plateau and Allegheny Mountain region of western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. The latest multi-sensor analysis in Figure 1 captures the rapid development of a squall line along an eastward-advancing cold front in western Pennsylvania. This convective system consists of vigorous multicellular storm clusters that appear prominently in both MRMS reflectivity and GOES-19 cloud convection imagery. A significant diagnostic feature is the high lightning probability within the storm cores. This enhanced electrical activity underscores the robust updraft strength and high liquid- and ice-phase water content, creating a highly favorable environment for severe downburst generation as these convective cells mature.


Figure 1. GOES-19 day cloud convection, LightningCast lightning probability, and MRMS radar reflectivity at 2000 UTC 13 May 2026.

Atmospheric profiling from Pittsburgh (PIT) area ACARS and RAP model soundings (1700–1800 UTC) in Figure 2 show strong consensus for severe wind potential. Both platforms exhibit classic "hourglass" profiles, characterized by dry air in the low-to-mid levels flanking a moist convective layer. Wet-Bulb Zero (WBZ): Positioned near the 750-mb level, enhanced melting-induced cooling and downdraft acceleration. WGP: MWPI-derived Wind Gust Potential ranging from 38 to 44 knots. This thermodynamic environment directly supports the concurrent GOES-19 Microburst Risk (MBR) imagery, which indicates moderate downburst potential over southwestern PA. Shortly after 2000 UTC, thunderstorm downburst wind damage was observed in the Morgantown-Fairmont, WV area near the southern terminus of the squall line.

Figure 2. ACARS and RAP model sounding profiles near Pittsburgh, PA compared to an eastern U.S. sector IR BTD product image during the afternoon of 13 May 2026.

-StormRangerWX

Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Sea Breeze Convergence Convection over South Florida


 In accordance with Mesoscale Discussion #708 issued by NWS/Storm Prediction Center at 1638 UTC, the main area of focus for thunderstorm downburst wind generation was set as the south Florida region surrounding the sea breeze convergence zone. Figure 1 shows the primary area of concern for severe downburst winds positioned along the south Florida Atlantic coast. As shown in Figures 2 and 3 below, this region is characterized by strong ambient instability, creating a highly favorable thermodynamic environment for robust convective updrafts. Furthermore, the convergence of lingering thunderstorm outflow boundaries with the eastward-advancing sea-breeze convergence zone front serves as a potent mesoscale lifting mechanism. Figures 2 and 3 show good agreement in sounding profile structure and downburst potential between the GOES-19, RAP model, and RAOB soundings in the Miami, FL area.


Figure 1: Composite of SZA day cloud convection, LightningCast lightning probability, and MRMS radar reflectivity at 2018 UTC 12 May 2026.


Figure 2. GOES-19 sounding profile near Miami, FL at 1800 UTC compared to an eastern U.S. sector IR BTD product image during the afternoon of 12 May 2026.


Figure 3. Comparison of the Miami, FL RAOB profile to the RAP model analysis sounding profile in the Miami, FL area at 1800 UTC 12 May 2026.

StormRangerWX

FCI WVT Imagery

 One of the products demonstrated at this year’s HWT is synthetic water vapor transmittance (WVT) imagery.  The product, a ratio of 0.91 μm to 0.86 μm reflectances, is based on the existence of water vapor absorption at 0.91 μm.  Dividing by 0.86 μm helps to highlight the water vapor signature.  As NOAA does not yet operate a satellite channel at 0.91 μm, synthetic imagery is created for HWT from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model run through the Community Radiative Transfer Model.  However, EUMETSAT’s latest geostationary satellite, Meteosat-12, does contain 0.91 μm and 0.86 μm channels on its Flexible Combined Imager (FCI), and is used to augment the synthetic imagery during HWT.

Figure 1 shows an FCI WVT loop over northeastern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula from 12 May 2026.  The darker regions are indicative of higher amounts of total precipitable water (TPW).  Noteworthy regions of higher TPW can be seen along the west and south coasts of Saudi Arabia and Yemen as moisture moves onshore from the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.  The greater moisture along and equatorward of the Sahel is also very apparent.  The high spatial and temporal resolution afforded by the satellite imagery allows for very accurate monitoring of water vapor during the day in clear regions.



Figure 1: Half hour Meteosat-12 FCI WVT imagery from 0920 UTC to 1150 UTC 12 May 2026 over northeastern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.

Monday, May 11, 2026

Monitoring LC V1 and V2 in Florida

At the beginning of week #2, forecasters were over Florida getting used to the products that they would be looking at for the week. For the Lightningcast product, one of the questions that was being asked by developers was differences between Version 1 (V1) and Version 2 (V2). V1 included 4 ABI inputs (channel 2 [the red band], channel 5 [the snow/ice band], channel 13 [the IR-window], and channel 15 [the dirty IR-window]), with V2 also including Muli-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) reflectivity at -10C. Contours for both versions are shown in figure 1. Both versions looked fairly similar in the spatial extent and timing of the contours.


Figure 1: Lightningcast contours for V1 (left panel) and V2 (right panel) over Florida on 11 May 2026 from 2026Z to 2121Z. Satellite imagery in the background is the Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB from GOES-19.

While not examined by forecasters today (but will be for fictional DSS events later in the week), the lightning dashboard for the Gainesville Regional Airport (KGNV) showed that V2 had a better handle on lightning cessation than V1 for that particular location (figure 2). V2 showed a ~5% probability of lightning within the next hour at 2050 UTC, while V1 reached that same probability at 2118 UTC, roughly 30 minutes later.


Figure 2: Lightning dashboard for KGNV. V1 probabilities at that location are shown by the red line and V2 probabilities at that location are shown by the green line. The GLM flash counts within 5-miles/5-min (8-miles/5-min) are shown by the dark (light) blue circles.

-Aurora

GXI 0.91 µm-based WVT Imagery of a Florida Sea Breeze



Figure 1: GeoXO/GXI water vapor transmittance (WVT).  At 20 UTC (last frame), the subtle darker shading near the coast shows the extent to which the sea breeze has moved inland.


Figure 2: Associated 20 UTC dewpoint from HRRR. Image from pivotalweather.com.

Today’s operations focused on convection moving across Florida with an associated sea breeze on the eastern coast. This provided an opportunity to see how this feature might appear in future GeoXO GXI imagery.  We looked at synthetic GXI imagery based on the 00 UTC HRRR output from the same day.

Figure 1 shows a short loop of synthetic water vapor transmittance (WVT) imagery.  WVT is the reflectance ratio of the 0.91 to 0.86 µm channels, and oftentimes better highlights areas of moisture than the 0.91 µm channel alone.  Darker areas (i.e. lower values) of WVT generally represent areas with higher total column water vapor.

At the end of the loop, as the sea breeze establishes itself inland (as demonstrated by the forecast dewpoints in Figure 2), a subtle area of darker shading in WVT is visible near the coast, delineating the extent to which the sea breeze has moved inland.

The dewpoint gradient across the sea breeze is only a few °F, which explains the subtleness of this feature.  Stronger sea breezes with larger moisture gradients will be much easier to identify than what is seen in this example (as regularly demonstrated in WVT from EUMETSAT’s Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) over Europe).  It is also noteworthy that the synthetic 5.15 µm did not identify the sea breeze, mostly due to the limited vertical extent of the sea breeze circulation.  WVT, by contrast, is sensitive to water vapor anywhere in the column.

-VortexTilting


 

Monitoring Downburst Potential with Sea-breeze Convective Storms in Florida


In accordance with Mesoscale Discussion #705 issued by NWS/Storm Prediction Center at 1724 UTC, the main area of focus for thunderstorm downburst wind generation was set as the Atlantic coastal region of Florida from south of Jacksonville to Palm Beach County.


The initial analysis highlights a primary area of concern for severe downburst winds situated along the east-central Florida coast. This region is characterized by strong ambient instability, creating a highly favorable thermodynamic environment for robust convective updrafts. Furthermore, the convergence of lingering thunderstorm outflow boundaries with the advancing Atlantic sea-breeze front serves as a potent mesoscale lifting mechanism. This boundary interaction is anticipated to force explosive convective initiation, setting the stage for intense downward momentum transport as heavy precipitation cores develop and rapidly descend.


Figure 1: Composite of SZA day cloud convection, LightningCast lightning probability, and MRMS radar reflectivity at 1906 UTC 11 May 2026

To assess the vertical thermodynamic structure within this concern area, we examine NOAA-21 NUCAPS (NOAA Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System) sounding profiles. These satellite-derived soundings exhibit a classic "hourglass" profile, featuring dry sub-cloud and mid-tropospheric layers flanking a moist low-level convective layer. This signature is strongly indicative of sufficient potential instability and rapid evaporative cooling. Driven by this thermodynamic structure, the NUCAPS profiles suggest a large downburst wind gust potential in the vicinity of 50 knots, placing the environment right at the threshold for severe convective wind generation.


Figure 2. Comparison of NOAA-21 NUCAPS sounding profiles in the Cape Canaveral area during the afternoon of 11 May 2026.

Corroborating the polar-orbiting data, a GOES-19 derived sounding at 1740 UTC shows excellent agreement with the NUCAPS profiles. The high-temporal-resolution geostationary sounding captures the same inverted-V, dry-adiabatic lower troposphere. Complementing the sounding data, the corresponding GOES-19 Brightness Temperature Difference (BTD) microburst risk product highlights the Cape Canaveral area as a localized maximum for severe downdrafts. The BTD product calculates a Wind Gust Potential (WGP) of 40 to 50 knots, tightly aligning with the NUCAPS assessment and emphasizing the imminent threat to the Space Coast.

Figure 3. GOES-19 sounding profile near Titusville, FL at 1740 UTC compared to an eastern U.S. sector IR BTD product image during the afternoon of 11 May 2026.

To validate the satellite-derived observations against high-resolution numerical weather prediction, we evaluate the 1800 UTC Rapid Refresh (RAP) model sounding at Cape Canaveral. The RAP model profile definitively confirms the thermodynamic signatures identified in both the NUCAPS and GOES soundings. It displays significant Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) coupled with substantial mid-level dry air, yielding a high computed Wind Gust Potential (WGP). This strong consensus across multiple platforms—polar satellite, geostationary satellite, and mesoscale modeling—renders a clear and consistent picture of an environment primed for significant downburst activity.

 

Figure 4.RAP model analysis sounding profile retrieved over Cape Canaveral, FL at 1800 UTC 11 May 2026.

-StormRangerWX

Thursday, April 30, 2026

Boundary-Initiated Thunderstorms over southern Louisiana


To begin the assessment of severe wind potential, we look at an AWIPS composite analysis at 1830 UTC in Figure 1 below. This display seamlessly integrates LightningCast lightning probabilities and OCTANE cloud phase distinction imagery overlaid with Lake Charles, LA (KLCH) NEXRAD base reflectivity. This composite clearly highlights a primary area of concern for downburst activity over southwestern Louisiana. We can observe the active development of a cluster of intense thunderstorms firing along a cold front boundary situated just north of Lake Charles. The combination of rapidly increasing radar reflectivity, distinct cloud top phase changes, and high lightning probabilities indicates robust updraft pulses capable of generating dense precipitation cores—the necessary precursor for severe downdraft initiation. Advancing two hours to 2030 UTC, the AWIPS composite reveals a significant shift in the convective focal point. While the initial cluster along the cold front has progressed, a new, rapidly developing convective complex is visible in the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas area. Crucially, this new activity is tracking eastward toward Lake Charles, propagating along the outflow boundary laid down by the earlier storms. Outflow boundaries act as mesoscale lifting mechanisms; as the dense, rain-cooled air surges forward, it forces the ambient unstable, moist Gulf air upward, continuously regenerating intense convective cells capable of producing new downbursts.



Figure 1: Composite of OCTANE MESOANYWHERE day cloud phase, LightningCast lightning probability, and Lake Charles, LA (KLCH) NEXRAD reflectivity at 1830 UTC (top) and 2030 UTC 30 April 2026.

To quantify the threat posed by this advancing convection, we analyze the thermodynamic environment near Lake Charles using both GOES satellite-derived soundings and Rapid Refresh (RAP) model profiles in Figure 2. There is strong agreement between the observational and modeled data. Both soundings reveal a convectively unstable environment characterized by a classic, lower-tropospheric "hourglass" profile. This includes a distinct surface-based "inverted-V" signature—a thermodynamic structure highly favorable for the generation of wet microbursts due to the rapid evaporation and cooling of precipitation as it falls through the dry sub-cloud layer. Based on these thermodynamic profiles, the Wind Gust Potential (WGP) is calculated to be between 42 and 47 knots.


Figure 2. Comparison of RAP model and GOES soundings over southwestern Louisiana at 1900 UTC 30 April 2026.

The "Low-End" Downburst Threat in Southern Louisiana

While a Wind Gust Potential of 42 to 47 knots falls just shy of the National Weather Service threshold for a Severe Thunderstorm Warning (50 knots / 58 mph over land), it is imperative to classify this as a significant "low-end" downburst threat. As established in earlier research, a horizontal surface gust of 34 knots implies that a negatively buoyant downdraft accelerated toward the surface at a comparable velocity of roughly 34 knots. A localized vertical air current impacting the surface with speeds in the 40-knot range represents an anomalous and highly hazardous transfer of kinetic energy. Therefore, as these new storms move from the Beaumont-Port Arthur area toward Lake Charles, they carry a highly elevated threat for aviation and marine interests. A 40+ knot downburst produces intense low-level wind shear that can severely destabilize general aviation aircraft during approach and departure. Furthermore, it easily exceeds the 34-knot criteria required for the issuance of Special Marine Warnings, posing an immediate capsize threat to recreational boaters and passenger vessels navigating the waterways of southern Louisiana and the nearby Gulf Coast.

 -StormRangerWX

A Tour of Today’s 0.91 µm Imagery over Europe from FCI


 

Figure 1: FCI satellite loop from 11:30 to 12:10 UTC 2026/04/30 showing GeoColor (top) and WVT (bottom).


Figure 2: GFS 12 UTC 2-meter dewpoint analysis. Source: pivotalweather.com

On a fairly inactive weather day over the continental United States, forecasters took a virtual tour of the European meteorological scene, viewing actual 0.91 µm-based water vapor transmittance (WVT) imagery from the MeteoSat Third Generation (MTG) Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) over Europe. This is analogous to information that will be available to U.S. forecasters after the launch of GeoXO. GeoXO Imager (GXI) synthetic imagery is currently being evaluated in the current Hazardous Weather Testbed.

Comparing the GeoColor imagery (Figure 1, top) to the WVT imagery (Figure 1, bottom), it is apparent that there is information about column water vapor in WVT that is not present in other visible/near-infrared channels.  For comparison, a GFS dewpoint analysis is shown in Figure 2.  A cyclone is present over the North Atlantic with an associated front trailing across Central Europe, west of Italy.

Some notable features in the WVT imagery:

  • The dark “shadow” advancing northeastward across central France is indicative of moisture advecting in advance of the front.
  • Moisture from the Mediterranean Sea is working its way inland in eastern Spain and northern Morocco.
  • Low-level northeasterly flow can be seen as motion in the WVT clear-sky imagery over Germany.
  • Clouds complicate interpretation of WVT imagery.  Higher clouds tend to be bright (for example along the front) while low clouds are often dark (for example over the western Mediterranean Sea off the Spanish coast).  For this reason, comparison of WVT imagery to GeoColor or visible imagery is a logical step in interpretation of the imagery.

The imagery from this blog can be viewed on CIRA SLIDER (with the left/right slider tool enabled) at https://col.st/ecye9.


-VortexTilting