In accordance with Mesoscale Discussion #708 issued by NWS/Storm Prediction Center at 1638 UTC, the main area of focus for thunderstorm downburst wind generation was set as the south Florida region surrounding the sea breeze convergence zone. Figure 1 shows the primary area of concern for severe downburst winds positioned along the south Florida Atlantic coast. As shown in Figures 2 and 3 below, this region is characterized by strong ambient instability, creating a highly favorable thermodynamic environment for robust convective updrafts. Furthermore, the convergence of lingering thunderstorm outflow boundaries with the eastward-advancing sea-breeze convergence zone front serves as a potent mesoscale lifting mechanism. Figures 2 and 3 show good agreement in sounding profile structure and downburst potential between the GOES-19, RAP model, and RAOB soundings in the Miami, FL area.
Figure 1: Composite of SZA day cloud convection, LightningCast lightning probability, and MRMS radar reflectivity at 2018 UTC 12 May 2026.
Figure 2. GOES-19 sounding profile near Miami, FL at 1800 UTC compared to an eastern U.S. sector IR BTD product image during the afternoon of 12 May 2026.
Figure 3. Comparison of the Miami, FL RAOB profile to the RAP model analysis sounding profile in the Miami, FL area at 1800 UTC 12 May 2026.
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