Monitoring lightning in Texas

Our teams in Texas are monitoring for severe storms and lightning at two DSS events: the "Come and Take It!" Celebration, in Gonzales, TX (point A in Figure 1), and the Burton Car and Truck Show, in Burton, TX (point B in Figure 1).

Figure 1: ProbSevere LightningCast probability of lightning contours (blue=10%, cyan=25%, green=50%, magenta=75%), GOES-16 ABI daytime cloud phase distinction RGB (background), GOES-16 GLM flash-extent density (orange foreground).

The LightningCast time series at the "Come and Take It!" Celebration is showing an upward trend in lightning potential (Figure 2, top panel). There have been a few anvil flashes within 10 miles already, as observed by ENI (bottom panel).

Figure 2: Meteograms of LightningCast probabilities (top panel) and observed lightning (bottom panel) for a DSS event in Gonzales, TX.

Just a couple of central Texas hailers

Forecasters in moisture-poor Midland, TX yesterday were peeking into central Texas with envy, as surface dewpoint temperatures and resultant CAPE were much higher. One testbed forecaster noted that ProbSevere LightningCast was his first indication of strengthening convection to their east (Figure 1).

Figure 1: ProbSevere LightningCast contours, GOES-16 day-cloud phase distinction RGB, and GOES-16 GLM flash extent density for two storms in central Texas.

ProbSevere v3 later had a handle on these storms, which developed in an environment of strong CAPE (> 3000 J/kg) and modest effective shear (35-40 kt). Strengthening radar signatures, moderate satellite growth rates, and increasing total lightning flash rates helped to boost the PSv3 probabilities. PSv3 again ramped up probabilities before PSv2, whereas PSv2 probabilities were higher at peak maturity. Each storm produced severe hail (1.5" and 2" diameters, respectively). 

Figure 2: ProbSevere v3 contours, MRMS MergedReflectivity, and NWS severe weather warnings for two storms in central Texas.