CI and Severe CI in northern Nebraska

CI and Severe CI worked better today across northern NE highlighting areas of initiation and potential for severe.

- Jack Swigert

Severe CI Product hinting at initiation in northern Nebraska throughout the early afternoon

northern Nebraska convective initiation after severe CI hinted in that region with high percentages (although jumpy) all throughout the early afternoon.

Severe CI Probs but is it true

Looking at 1 min GOES Ch2, Ch13 Satellite data while overlaid with Severe CI showed several areas that have quite high severe CI probabilities initially but then trend downward with probabilities. This is apparent over the NW portion of the LBF forecast area (north Platte) close to the warm front. So, not sure of the effectiveness of the severe CI data. Included a screen shot here.  Also, noticing convection protruding from a perhaps a dry line across eastern Wyoming. Seeing that developing with the 1 minute imagery was quite valuable. Will try to upload an animation to show but proving to be problematic to create an animation of this particular data within AWIPS.

 

 Here's the animation...

More to come...

Supercell

Severe CI problem with initiation near cirrus

Noticed that a storm moving from ARK to MKX was close to the cirrus canopy and there was no signal on the CI product.  It eventually developed into a sub-severe storm. Could go severe later, but just something I noticed in terms of the product not resolving close to the cirrus canopy.

Just to make clear which cell (there were several I was looking at) that didn't have any CI on it. Here's an annotated image. Just follow storm across Wisconsin as it strengthens.

One other suggestion: Having the values in blue from 10-30% is not very useful. Maybe 30% blue and then the colors above that??

More to come...

Supercell