The final week of the 2016 GOES-R/JPSS Spring Experiment concluded with our two pairs operating in the Nashville and Huntsville CWAs. Both were able to evaluate the PGLM product via the Huntsville LMA.
LAP
- Convection developed along the moisture and instability gradients in LAP.
- I liked seeing the model data where retrievals were unavailable. In addition to having a continuous field, it often allowed for quick comparisons of retrievals with nearby GFS.
- Our office does look at K-Index for flash flood situations.
- 30-min is a good temporal update frequency. Too frequent of updates would not be that useful, as such fields do not change so rapidly.
- Layer PW was my favorite LAP product as it was most unique, and added value to my analysis. It was particularly useful on days when we had strong low-level moisture advection, tracking the movement of moisture, and dry air aloft.
GOES-R CI
- When I had 1-min imagery, I did not need CI because I could identify areas of imminent CI in the imagery.
- In situations where you are expecting severe thunderstorm activity, you's look more at severe CI. Regular CI was not as useful for severe situations because you could see cb development in the 1-min data.
- When looking for general thunderstorms, I see CI being more helpful, including in the cool season. This would be valuable for DSS purposes.
- I found utility in having both CI products up. If severe CI was pinging on something in addition to regular CI, it helped to focus attention to particular areas of interest.
- It would be helpful to see probability trends for a particular cloud/area.
- We were fine with the display concept
- I like the current instantaneous visualization over a smoothed probability field approach.
ProbSevere
- It would be nice to see a meteogram with a history of ProbSevere probs.
- Everyone is fine with the display and color-scale.
- Similar to VIL of the day, might be helpful to determine "ProbSevere Prob" of the day.
- I think it really well with discrete cells, but later would merge nearby cells.
- I would say this was my favorite product outside of the 10min imagery.
- I thought it performed great this week.
- We would all use this in operations.
- I've worked 5 or 6 severe events in the last month, and I've ProbSevere up for all of them. Usually I have storm relative velocity all tilts, regular velocity in the middle, and the third screen has different fields, including composite reflectivity with ProbSevere. I've also even started putting it on all-tilts. The display does not distract me. In my office, the threshold to warn depends on the day, but I've found with most of our events, especially with severe wind, we can get severe with a threshold of ~60%. Definitely not using it as a yes/no.
SRSOR
- All forecasters loved using it this week!
- 5-min is certainly bettern than 15. But when you are tracking low-end severe situations, subtle boundaries can make all the difference between something going up or not. We get better than 5-min radar data, but 1-min satellite data can fill gaps that we still have. 5-min will be useufl, but 1-min is optimal.
- I think it is certainly time to make the jump to 1-min satellite imagery. There is so much that can be seen, even outside of convection. Forecasters need to use satellite data more in day to day operations. Generally, I think forecasters don't think satellite imagery is as useful as it is, and they have a hard time understanding exactly how much they will see in the 1-min imagery.
- It was helpful to view long loops of the 1-min imagery on the regional scale to get a big picture idea of how the system was evolving.
- It was really helpful for analyzing frontal structure and all the different boundaries.
- Satellite imagery is truly the only visual representation you have of a storm that you can't get with any other product.
- I found it useful to match 1-min lightning data with 1-min satellite data.
SRSOR Winds
- I liked the winds a lot. You could see the vertical structure of a front, and how winds changed with height from the surface. Seeing rapid change over a short vertical distance was intriguing. AMV's could be a big help with our TAFs.
- I felt that the low-level winds were more useful than the upper-level winds. They indicated areas of low-level convergence, moisture transport, veering of winds from the surface, potential for tornadoes.
Lightning Jump
- I liked it more as the week went on. I usually used it in tandem with ProbSevere and PGLM Flash Extent Density. I could see all of these being in a 4-panel and helping with situational awareness for severe operations. Especially on Thursday, I noticed the storms with the biggest LJ's were the ones that strengthened considerably thereafter.
- I'll be interested to use this during cool season events, as I am always looking for more information in these situations.
- I like the way it is now, though I can see others preferring a contoured look.
- I like a 4-panel layout with ProbSevere, lightning jump, Severe CI, Lightning, composite reflectivity, and satellite imagery.
- Forecasters are/will always change to their preferred color tables.
- There will always be a spot for a product like Lightning Jump in my display.
GLM Total Lightning
- The lightning data will be very helpful for DSS - events, fairs, etc. It will be very helpful to have this information updating every 1 minute.
- Especially for cool season events, we are always looking for more data. Lightning from satellite will be helpful.
- I can see this being helpful in EM's decisions to evacuate stadiums.
- This will be big for us during fire weather season in the NW US.
- In the future, with lightning in field offices, there must be very good training on all of this. There is/will be a lot of different lightning data. Generally, forecasters do not know the differences in lightning verbage.
- I will likely overlay it on radar or satellite.
- LMA-1 was the favorite among the group
NUCAPS
- The plan view and cross-section components were my favorite aspect of NUCAPS this week
- The lure is that it is an observation. I think it should remain observationally driven, even though we know there could be a source of error. If so, we know the source of the error. If you add in model data, you don't always know the source of the error.
- Pop-up skew-T will be good to use before and during an event with NUCAPS.
- Modification is not an issue for me. In our office we modify RAP soundings all the time. It takes some time, but it works.
- NUCAPS has a lot of potential, but a lot of bust potential for captivating an office.
- I can't get anyone to look at it in my office in Portland.
- The lack of detail is a killer. That's why I think plan view and cross section displays are more valuable.
- People will use it if they see the value, and it is made clear that this is an observation.
General
- Participants felt that the start of week orientation/familiarization was great.
- It was the perfect amount of products to evaluate.
- It would be nice to have a DRT WES case for slow days.
- I suggest having a group briefing after the groups complete their mesoscale analysis but before CI.
- The broadcaster commented that this was a great experience, and it was wonderful to be able to work directly with NWS forecasters.
- Some of the training material should be put on the CLC so we can go back and look at it in the future.
Showing posts with label PGLM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PGLM. Show all posts
Friday, May 13, 2016
Thursday, May 12, 2016
Final Convection thoughts with the pGLM
At 2310 UTC, a broken line of convection continues from south of Nashville, TN into northern AL, and northern MS. The ENTLN shows the 5-min total LTG with the individual cells in the broken line. The pGLM shows the various color tables for the Flash LTG density at 2310 UTC. From a pure visualization perspective you can see the benefits of the pGLM in a procedure to assist a forecaster with convection forecasting, whether it is for general convection or severe. This blogger still thinks the upper right color table is the best to show the flash extent density from the pGLM.
-Yodamaster777
1 Min Vis Satellite: Normal image vs. parallax-corrected image
In addition to the 1 minute visible satellite imagery, we also had access to a parallax-corrected version of the product this week. It was interesting to compare the two images.
Below are 2 images centered over northern Alabama. There are several overshooting tops apparent on developing cells. Comparing the locations of the centers of the overshooting tops, I found that the the regular and the parallax-corrected images differed by around 8-10 miles. This could make a significant difference if a forecaster was using an overshooting top to try to center a warning track.
Note: I also discovered today that overlaying lightning flash density from the pGLM network on top of the satellite imagery was a nice display. In this case, you can see that the higher flash densities better correspond to the overshooting tops on the parallax-corrected image. - JP
Normal visible imagery
Parallax-corrected visible imagery
Below are 2 images centered over northern Alabama. There are several overshooting tops apparent on developing cells. Comparing the locations of the centers of the overshooting tops, I found that the the regular and the parallax-corrected images differed by around 8-10 miles. This could make a significant difference if a forecaster was using an overshooting top to try to center a warning track.
Note: I also discovered today that overlaying lightning flash density from the pGLM network on top of the satellite imagery was a nice display. In this case, you can see that the higher flash densities better correspond to the overshooting tops on the parallax-corrected image. - JP
Normal visible imagery
Broadcast media perspectives of new products
This week I was lucky enough to experiment with tools and products that will help forecasters make faster and more accurate decisions regarding severe weather. As someone who works on the TV side of things, I have a different view of how useful these products could be to me and my colleagues. While the forecasters main goal is to issue timely warnings to save lives and property, my goal is to quickly and clearly communicate warnings and threats to the public, via tv, social media. etc... .
While ALL the products are valuable, there are several which I would think would be most beneficial to me if I had them available to me to share with viewers
1 minute VIS. Satellite- Total eye candy...after all I work in a visual world. The stunning displays would give our viewers something to look at, and I could point out certain features that concerned me (rapid development etc...).
Lightning Jump- Another one of my favorite visual tools. I would use a modified version of this, and obviously the language wouldn't be "sigma". I could however imagine a version of this where the categories were small-moderate-large-extreme...or negative. It would be easy to communicate quickly that if we see these jumps, that means the potential is there for severe storm development, or at least these storms warrant close watching. Once storms reach severe levels I'm not sure I would continue to use that tool. I believe I would switch at that point to PGLM.
PGLM- I would use this tool to track severe storms and show the lightning. We currently show lightning flash counts, and the viewers love it, but I would prefer the visual display presented as it is in PGLM.
PROB Severe- Initially I was ALL FOR IT. I loved the outline display. After tracking storms in the Southeast today where the product under-performed due to a different atmospheric environment, an environment that is much closer to my home one, I changed my mind. If this product could be fine tuned specifically for region or season, then I would LOVE to show viewers a severe probability parameter storm cell by storm cell.
CI & CI Severe- Still unsure of the value this would have to viewers. If there were no storms present, but storms expected I could see this being something that could help show storm potential, but I would want to have higher confidence in the product. I would probably also only want to show probs of 80 or higher on air.
Even though I wouldn't necessarily use the assessment products on air (LAP, NU CAPS) I am glad that NWS forecasters will have these available because I see their value as well.
-StormFront
While ALL the products are valuable, there are several which I would think would be most beneficial to me if I had them available to me to share with viewers
1 minute VIS. Satellite- Total eye candy...after all I work in a visual world. The stunning displays would give our viewers something to look at, and I could point out certain features that concerned me (rapid development etc...).
Lightning Jump- Another one of my favorite visual tools. I would use a modified version of this, and obviously the language wouldn't be "sigma". I could however imagine a version of this where the categories were small-moderate-large-extreme...or negative. It would be easy to communicate quickly that if we see these jumps, that means the potential is there for severe storm development, or at least these storms warrant close watching. Once storms reach severe levels I'm not sure I would continue to use that tool. I believe I would switch at that point to PGLM.
PGLM- I would use this tool to track severe storms and show the lightning. We currently show lightning flash counts, and the viewers love it, but I would prefer the visual display presented as it is in PGLM.
PROB Severe- Initially I was ALL FOR IT. I loved the outline display. After tracking storms in the Southeast today where the product under-performed due to a different atmospheric environment, an environment that is much closer to my home one, I changed my mind. If this product could be fine tuned specifically for region or season, then I would LOVE to show viewers a severe probability parameter storm cell by storm cell.
CI & CI Severe- Still unsure of the value this would have to viewers. If there were no storms present, but storms expected I could see this being something that could help show storm potential, but I would want to have higher confidence in the product. I would probably also only want to show probs of 80 or higher on air.
Even though I wouldn't necessarily use the assessment products on air (LAP, NU CAPS) I am glad that NWS forecasters will have these available because I see their value as well.
-StormFront
Very High Lightning Flash Density Animation
Here is an animation of some very high lightning flash rates with a warned storm in Northern Alabama. These flash rates were the highest of the day. After re-evaluating the color curves presented for a flash rate this high, I determined I preferred the upper right color curve. This stood out the most to me and also did not mimic the color scale from other products like the default does. This storm also had a lightning jump of 6 sigma (top right in figure 2) which was one of the highest we saw of the day. Using the PGLM and the Lightning Jump products in tandem was a great confidence booster for warnings. As far as the PGLM was concerned I like that it is not tied to the individual cell as it can give an idea of how far away from the storm that lightning can travel. I could see this being a useful visual presentation for an Emergency Manager trying to decide to evacuate a stadium full of people or not. -Jason Bourne
pGLM Color Table Discussion (continued)
One cell in the northern portion of Huntsville's forecast area produced a tremendous amount of lightning in the last 2 mins.
At 2200 UTC, the pGLM Total lightning rate increased significantly for near full usage of the color tables. After further review, the upper right looks like the best one transitioning from cool to warm colors, and then back to cool.
The cell at 2216 UTC started to produce over 120+ flashes per 2 minutes with a transition to white colors in all the color tables. I like the lower left less now, and like the right two panels more.
At 2218 UTC, my final thoughts are the upper right "takes the cake", as my favorite color table for the HWT GOES-R testbed.
-Yodamaster777
At 2200 UTC, the pGLM Total lightning rate increased significantly for near full usage of the color tables. After further review, the upper right looks like the best one transitioning from cool to warm colors, and then back to cool.
The cell at 2216 UTC started to produce over 120+ flashes per 2 minutes with a transition to white colors in all the color tables. I like the lower left less now, and like the right two panels more.
At 2218 UTC, my final thoughts are the upper right "takes the cake", as my favorite color table for the HWT GOES-R testbed.
-Yodamaster777
PGLM compare and contrast
We were finally lucky enough to use the PGLM lightning tool today. I found it visually pleasing and useful. I like that fact that once you figure out the scale, it immediately conveys the severity of the lightning. For example.
I learned that anything over dark blue (in the default frame) is OVER 30 flashes.
That's all I need to know. I can tell by looking at this storm that there is a LOT of lightning. If I want to get the exact amount I can scroll over, but I don't need to. It's like a visual threshold for me. I prefer the non-pixelated version, and as far as color tables...I prefer the default. I initially chose the top right corner because it was more intuitive with red bring stronger, but the blues in the default give a very clear demarcation of major vs. minor lightning.
-StormFront
That's all I need to know. I can tell by looking at this storm that there is a LOT of lightning. If I want to get the exact amount I can scroll over, but I don't need to. It's like a visual threshold for me. I prefer the non-pixelated version, and as far as color tables...I prefer the default. I initially chose the top right corner because it was more intuitive with red bring stronger, but the blues in the default give a very clear demarcation of major vs. minor lightning.
-StormFront
pGLM Color Tables Thoughts
The activity has been kind of quiet over OHX forecast area. However, here are some thoughts on the pGLM color tables.
Preference is for the color table in the upper right or lower left. They work the opposite from each other going from warmer to cooler colors in the lower left panel, and cooler to warmer colors in the upper right. I do not like the color table in the upper left panel, since it is an AWIPS default color scheme for other convective parameters such as CAPE, stability indices, etc. The lower right is decent but goes from gray-scale to cooler colors, and then to the warm or HOT colors. It might take some time to make this jump.
-Yodamaster777
Preference is for the color table in the upper right or lower left. They work the opposite from each other going from warmer to cooler colors in the lower left panel, and cooler to warmer colors in the upper right. I do not like the color table in the upper left panel, since it is an AWIPS default color scheme for other convective parameters such as CAPE, stability indices, etc. The lower right is decent but goes from gray-scale to cooler colors, and then to the warm or HOT colors. It might take some time to make this jump.
-Yodamaster777
OHX: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Our first warning for the day was issued northeast of the city of Nashville, where a jump occurred with the pGLM data. The SVR TSRA polygon was overlayed show how the lightning jump was used in the preceding scan.
-Yodamaster777
The 4 panel below shows the Sig Probs only rose to 21%, but a distinct velocity maximum of 50-55 kts was occurring and the 1-min visibility nicely shows the strong updrafts with rapid cooling in the IR imagery. This storm was was likely capable of damaging winds.
-Yodamaster777
1 Min Visible Sat Shows Convection Developing on Outflow Boundary
We noticed an outflow boundary moving into our CWA from the Huntsville CWA to our south. Convection is developing along this line and is producing several cells that are generating quite a bit of lightning activity.
We issued a severe thunderstorm warning on one of the cells for Coffee, Warren, and Grundy conties that produced a significant lightning jump. The flash extent density value reached around 40. -JP
We issued a severe thunderstorm warning on one of the cells for Coffee, Warren, and Grundy conties that produced a significant lightning jump. The flash extent density value reached around 40. -JP
PGLM and 1-min Overshooting top HUN
Captured a good shot of 1 minute imagery with an overshooting top in the warning box. This was a good example of a line of storms moving to the northeast that all looked fairly equal for a while. Then there was this overshooting top that corresponded with a jump in the flash rate the corresponed well. In the end there was a report of quarter size hail with this storm but it was in a county that was in the far southeastern flank of the warning polygon. This did not line up with the storm but the blowoff from the storm is travelling to the southeast. It could be possible that hail from this storm was blown southeastward out of the storm and thus landing in the adjacent county. Or it could have been a suspect report. -Jason Bourne
PGLM performance in HUN
I issued a warning for a storm in a line in the NW part of the HUN CWA. The PGLM performed very well showing higher flash densities as the storm grew. Overlaying my warning polygon on the storm you can see how the flash rate was increasing and was highest at the point of warning issuance. After that time the flash rate decreased until the warning was cancelled. I was not warning based on the PGLM but it was a confidence booster and even though the storm did not end up going severe...it certainly helped the warning process in both the decision to warn and the decision to cancel the warning earlier. As a cosmetic comment I prefer the original color table but either one of the top two color scales would be fine. I do not like either of the bottom two as they are not an intuitive progression. - Jason Bourne
pLGM Lightning Data
We are finally in a CWA with pLGM lightning data today and the network is actually working! Convection hasn't been all that impressive so far today, but we did have one cell that produced a pea-sized hail report. The report was from Davidson County. The pLGM lightning flash extent imagery showed a spike to around 30-40 as the cell entered Davidson County. The LMA_1 color table highlighted this jump the best, I thought.
We also noticed the ProbSevere algorithm jumped rapidly from less than 10% up to 80% in less than 10 minutes around this time. This jump seemed to be mainly triggered by the increase in lightning activity. Luckily, we did not pull the trigger on a warning based on the ProbSevere algorithm, because the storm weakened again pretty quickly after this. The shear environment is fairly weak and does not seem able to support anything other than pulse cells at this point.
- JP
HUN Mesoanalysis 5/12/16
Soggy environment in place in HUN this afternoon as almost 1.5 inches of PW is in place and LAP layered PW shows that this pretty much extends through the entire column but the wettest levels below 700 mb. This is confirmed on both a RAP sounding in the area and the NUCAPS sounding. After modification...NUCAPS did very well despite the amount of moisture in the column. A comparison of the NUCAPS and the RAP soundings are below.
Looking at a wide angle of 1-minute satellite data...a cold front can be seen pushing through Arkansas with the wind shift ahead of it approaching the Mississippi border. This line should be the focus of convection later this afternoon with a more linear structure as this is where the highest shear values are. Further east...storms firing are more instability driven at this time with almost 3000 J/kg of cape across the area. That being said...low level lapse rates are very strong but mid levels are very weak and storms are having a hard time gaining any height. With the freezing level around 11 kft...severe hail will be hard to get in this scenario.
Looking at storms on the radar now...a storm over north central Alabama has had a flash density of 60 flashes / 2 min. Short term models have this first batch of convection exiting the area after 21z and then another line with the front coming through after 23z. Main threat of the day will be wet microbursts with some small hail possible. Not much shear in place at the moment so any kind of tornadic activity seems unlikely.
-Jason Bourne
Looking at a wide angle of 1-minute satellite data...a cold front can be seen pushing through Arkansas with the wind shift ahead of it approaching the Mississippi border. This line should be the focus of convection later this afternoon with a more linear structure as this is where the highest shear values are. Further east...storms firing are more instability driven at this time with almost 3000 J/kg of cape across the area. That being said...low level lapse rates are very strong but mid levels are very weak and storms are having a hard time gaining any height. With the freezing level around 11 kft...severe hail will be hard to get in this scenario.
Looking at storms on the radar now...a storm over north central Alabama has had a flash density of 60 flashes / 2 min. Short term models have this first batch of convection exiting the area after 21z and then another line with the front coming through after 23z. Main threat of the day will be wet microbursts with some small hail possible. Not much shear in place at the moment so any kind of tornadic activity seems unlikely.
-Jason Bourne
Friday, April 29, 2016
Week 2 (25-29 April 2016) Summary and Feedback
On Thursday, the final day of operations for 2016 week 2, participants operated primarily in the Raleigh and Blacksburg CWA's.
GOES-R LAP
- GFS underdid CAPE values all week.
- These fields are useful for situational awareness, especially for getting a quick look at the environment when you are just sitting down.
- Would it be possible to use RAP for these retrievals over CONUS?
- I liked being able to see what moisture was doing at the different atmospheric layers. It worked well to overlay the satellite-derived winds on the layer PW.
- The other day, it was really helpful to see the drier air moving in at the upper levels, with increasing moisture at the lower levels. It is nice to have this in a 4-panel display.
GOES-R CI
- In most cases this week, I could diagnose from the cloud evolution where CI was imminent. But severe CI, when it works, is very useful
- Severe CI would be more useful in warning operations than regular CI, but it was pretty bad in most situations.
- Both CI's did really well in Lubbock this week. CI picked up on a broad area where convection developed, and severe CI focused in on where the best storms ended up developing.
- CI was good when we were in Missouri. It didn't always target the exact cells, but it usually did give us the general area where CI was imminant.
- If it highlights the general area of future CI, that is good enough for me. I don't need to know exact cloud.
- As a broadcaster, I would love to have this in my office. Often I don't have as much time to analyze the weather before my broadcast. This is something I could have up when I begin my day. I see it being very beneficial to the broadcast community.
- This would be more useful for the shift coordinator, and for DSS, over the warning forecaster.
- I liked setting all values below 30% to be transparent. It decluttered the image a lot. I like being able to see the satellite imagery.
- The product display did not bother me.
- I'd like to see products like this be based off of the 1-min data. Something that could alert us to imminent development, since there is so much data.
ProbSevere
- In general, I really liked it. It sometimes gave me a false sense of security. When it trended down, this gave me confidence to focus my attention on other storms
- It is a limitation that it struggles with linear modes.
- Every office has the capability to change the color table. Various offices might want a different break point. it is a preference.
- I like the outline, I think that is the way to display these things.
- For contours, when using with radar, the contour is displaced. I recommend having it loaded on a seperate display with MRMS
- I would have wargen display with radar and a seperate display with MRMS and ProbSevere.
- I think it covers wind threats very well, but wind was difficult.
- We would definitely like to have probs by threat, in addition to total severe
- If this helped us with wind, it would be even more valuable than it is now
- It provides a nice comprehensive overview
- I foresee having a 4-panel with probsevere, probwind, probhail, and probtor
- For the hail threat, maybe look at including -20C reflectivity - this could help with area of storm and magnitude
- For tor, somehow including information about the presence of an RFD could help. Also, LL SRH, 0-1 km shear, storm motion, streamwise vorticity
SRSOR
- This week sold me on the value of 1-min imagery. At first I was like, it's really pretty. The storm over Kirksville was in a data sparse region and had explosive growth evident in the 1-min data. This visualization pushed me over the edge to warn. There was a similar case yesterday where convection developed rapidly so I warned early. This is something I will use in my warning decisions in addition to looking at radar.
- Broadcaster: I would definitely show this on TV, either by itself or under radar. Viewers like to see interesting stuff. I would also use this for diagnosis behind the scenes.
- The lack of data along the Mexico border hurts, but the 1-min data will help to fill this gap.
- I see utility for the parallax-corrected imagery. It appears to properly make the correction.
10-min Satellite-derived winds
- I see utility for marine areas, special marine warnings, seeing flow at low levels, warning decisions in marine areas.
- I would like to have seen more upper-level winds
- I used the LL winds to verify the low shear environment and to project the movement of storms. They were helpful in showing which direction the storms would move.
Lightning Jump
- I tried playing with the transparency, but it didn't really work out for me.
- I would have benefited from a cheat sheet to know what exactly to look for.
- It was nice seeing the jumps yesterday, and that the storm strength did fluctuate with jumps. I wouldn't use it alone, but would use it in tandem with other tools.
- Training with this product will be important
- I imagine people will want a threshold to go off of
- An issue is when multiple storms merge and cause a false trigger.
- With ProbSevere and LJ, I liked having them in a SA display, with MRMS composite or -20C reflectivity underlay. I found this helpful to get a big picture view, highlighting areas of interest. Certainly something I would use in operations.
- I think warning coordinator would be best to monitor these products, distributing the workload.
PGLM
- I think having lightning contoured as opposed to the image would be less obtrusive.
NUCAPS
- For the Plan view: theta-e, CAPE, LRs, dew points, DCAPE.
- I will compare NUCAPS with RAOBs when available to help improve my understanding of NUCAPS.
- I would like to analyze this in the evening, for diagnosing transition of events from severe to heavy rain/MCS.
- Although I would like the surface modifications to be modified, if this does occur, I still want to be able to view the original profile.
Other:
- I would look at an improved OT (and enhanced-V) detection product from GOES-R. Summary products are good. There is so much data coming in, this would help.
- I liked having the product sheet there in front of me so I remembered what to look at and how to view it.
- We did not feel like there were too many products to evaluate.
- Broadcaster: The training beforehand was extremely helpful. Not ever having AWIPS experience, it did help a lot to get exposure beforehand. This was an eye-opening experience to what folks at the NWS do every day, I am blown away. I think every broadcaster should get to do something like this. I can't wait until these products become available. I am going to sit down with Baron and ask how they are going to do this.
- It was nice to have experience forecasting in different regions of the country.
- For the most busy days, it was hard to focus on evaluating the products. On these days, should have all forecasters in the same CWA.
- Having more developers here would be helpful.
- All forecasters indicated they enjoyed their experience.
GOES-R LAP
- GFS underdid CAPE values all week.
- These fields are useful for situational awareness, especially for getting a quick look at the environment when you are just sitting down.
- Would it be possible to use RAP for these retrievals over CONUS?
- I liked being able to see what moisture was doing at the different atmospheric layers. It worked well to overlay the satellite-derived winds on the layer PW.
- The other day, it was really helpful to see the drier air moving in at the upper levels, with increasing moisture at the lower levels. It is nice to have this in a 4-panel display.
GOES-R CI
- In most cases this week, I could diagnose from the cloud evolution where CI was imminent. But severe CI, when it works, is very useful
- Severe CI would be more useful in warning operations than regular CI, but it was pretty bad in most situations.
- Both CI's did really well in Lubbock this week. CI picked up on a broad area where convection developed, and severe CI focused in on where the best storms ended up developing.
- CI was good when we were in Missouri. It didn't always target the exact cells, but it usually did give us the general area where CI was imminant.
- If it highlights the general area of future CI, that is good enough for me. I don't need to know exact cloud.
- As a broadcaster, I would love to have this in my office. Often I don't have as much time to analyze the weather before my broadcast. This is something I could have up when I begin my day. I see it being very beneficial to the broadcast community.
- This would be more useful for the shift coordinator, and for DSS, over the warning forecaster.
- I liked setting all values below 30% to be transparent. It decluttered the image a lot. I like being able to see the satellite imagery.
- The product display did not bother me.
- I'd like to see products like this be based off of the 1-min data. Something that could alert us to imminent development, since there is so much data.
ProbSevere
- In general, I really liked it. It sometimes gave me a false sense of security. When it trended down, this gave me confidence to focus my attention on other storms
- It is a limitation that it struggles with linear modes.
- Every office has the capability to change the color table. Various offices might want a different break point. it is a preference.
- I like the outline, I think that is the way to display these things.
- For contours, when using with radar, the contour is displaced. I recommend having it loaded on a seperate display with MRMS
- I would have wargen display with radar and a seperate display with MRMS and ProbSevere.
- I think it covers wind threats very well, but wind was difficult.
- We would definitely like to have probs by threat, in addition to total severe
- If this helped us with wind, it would be even more valuable than it is now
- It provides a nice comprehensive overview
- I foresee having a 4-panel with probsevere, probwind, probhail, and probtor
- For the hail threat, maybe look at including -20C reflectivity - this could help with area of storm and magnitude
- For tor, somehow including information about the presence of an RFD could help. Also, LL SRH, 0-1 km shear, storm motion, streamwise vorticity
SRSOR
- This week sold me on the value of 1-min imagery. At first I was like, it's really pretty. The storm over Kirksville was in a data sparse region and had explosive growth evident in the 1-min data. This visualization pushed me over the edge to warn. There was a similar case yesterday where convection developed rapidly so I warned early. This is something I will use in my warning decisions in addition to looking at radar.
- Broadcaster: I would definitely show this on TV, either by itself or under radar. Viewers like to see interesting stuff. I would also use this for diagnosis behind the scenes.
- The lack of data along the Mexico border hurts, but the 1-min data will help to fill this gap.
- I see utility for the parallax-corrected imagery. It appears to properly make the correction.
10-min Satellite-derived winds
- I see utility for marine areas, special marine warnings, seeing flow at low levels, warning decisions in marine areas.
- I would like to have seen more upper-level winds
- I used the LL winds to verify the low shear environment and to project the movement of storms. They were helpful in showing which direction the storms would move.
Lightning Jump
- I tried playing with the transparency, but it didn't really work out for me.
- I would have benefited from a cheat sheet to know what exactly to look for.
- It was nice seeing the jumps yesterday, and that the storm strength did fluctuate with jumps. I wouldn't use it alone, but would use it in tandem with other tools.
- Training with this product will be important
- I imagine people will want a threshold to go off of
- An issue is when multiple storms merge and cause a false trigger.
- With ProbSevere and LJ, I liked having them in a SA display, with MRMS composite or -20C reflectivity underlay. I found this helpful to get a big picture view, highlighting areas of interest. Certainly something I would use in operations.
- I think warning coordinator would be best to monitor these products, distributing the workload.
PGLM
- I think having lightning contoured as opposed to the image would be less obtrusive.
NUCAPS
- For the Plan view: theta-e, CAPE, LRs, dew points, DCAPE.
- I will compare NUCAPS with RAOBs when available to help improve my understanding of NUCAPS.
- I would like to analyze this in the evening, for diagnosing transition of events from severe to heavy rain/MCS.
- Although I would like the surface modifications to be modified, if this does occur, I still want to be able to view the original profile.
Other:
- I would look at an improved OT (and enhanced-V) detection product from GOES-R. Summary products are good. There is so much data coming in, this would help.
- I liked having the product sheet there in front of me so I remembered what to look at and how to view it.
- We did not feel like there were too many products to evaluate.
- Broadcaster: The training beforehand was extremely helpful. Not ever having AWIPS experience, it did help a lot to get exposure beforehand. This was an eye-opening experience to what folks at the NWS do every day, I am blown away. I think every broadcaster should get to do something like this. I can't wait until these products become available. I am going to sit down with Baron and ask how they are going to do this.
- It was nice to have experience forecasting in different regions of the country.
- For the most busy days, it was hard to focus on evaluating the products. On these days, should have all forecasters in the same CWA.
- Having more developers here would be helpful.
- All forecasters indicated they enjoyed their experience.
Thursday, April 28, 2016
PGLM LUB
Trends in PGLM with SVRs plotted for reference. the northern cell has lightning quite far east of the actual cell.
BAJ
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Daily Summary: Week 2, Day 2 (26 April 2016)
April 26 provided us with our busiest weather day of the experiment thus far, as widespread severe convection developed throughout the southern plains. One of our groups operated in the Norman CWA, where they were busy issuing warnings all day. Our other group began in Wichita, which started out busy but quieted down towards the end of the day as storms advanced eastward. They would move to Omaha briefly, before ending the day in San Angelo.
LAP
- An area of convection in Texas developed west of the CAPE gradient in the stable air, due to errors in the GFS (which is used as a first guess for LAP).
- Looking at the CAPE field, the locations where GFS was used were underdone. The retrievals (clear and cloudy sky) where available bumped up the CAPE to more reasonable levels.
- Low level PW depicted the dry line really well. The location compared well with surface observations.
- These fields could be especially helpful in data sparse regions.
- We would like theta-e derived from LAP.
CI
- Severe CI had false alarms and misses yesterday
- With one of the false alarms ahead of the line of convection, you could see initial development, then it just dissipated quickly. Severe CI went up to 60.
- Regular CI generally seemed to hit on locations of future convection.
- In Wichita, we had relatively high severe CI values where severe convection did develop later.
- In Midland, there was a very high severe CI near 90 that developed into strong elevated convection.
- What I take from this product is a general situational awareness to target areas.
ProbSevere
- A handful of times, it didn't give much lead-time over when I would have normally warned. Radar signatures were there, but probsevere was below 50.
- When probsevere increased at the same time as radar, it was a confidence booster in out warnings.
- There were some instances when radar was on the edge for warning criteria, but ProbSevere jumped, to we went with a warning.
- It is tough to calibrate to the cwa and the weather situation at hand quickly.
- I saw 3 different occasions that once it got above 60, the storm intensified quickly.
- For reissuing, it helped with confidence, in addition to the radar.
- I felt like I was still ahead of ProbSevere for initial warnings when using basic radar methods.
- One situation with severe hail, radar signatures came down a bit to the point where I wouldn't reissue typically. But probsevere stayed up, so I kept warning, and later on the storm did amp back up and was clearly severe. In this case, I did reissue based on what probsevere was showing in a situation where I probably would not have otherwise.
- Yesterday storms were growing so fast that it didn't provide that much elad-time.
- It would be nice if it could focus more on individual storm cores within a line. Perhaps it could track higher up, like x dbz above -20Z
- In the far south, a pretty significant line of storms developed. The bulk of the line was severe, but the part that was in the southern part of our CWA was not severe. However, probsevere still had it at 90 since it was highlighting the whole line.
- I would like to see the degree of LJ in the probsevere readout.
1-min SRSOR imagery
- It was great having the ability to see all of the overshooting tops.
- It was great to see the progression of the dry lines in this manner.
- I could see the anvil forming and the feeder clouds before the anvil got too big. I could also infer shear from these features.
- It was easy to identify and track boundaries and gravity waves.
- It is very nice to have this for situational awareness. Much better than having to wait 15 minutes for an image.
- At the top of the storm, you could see rotational patterns in cells.
- I could clearly see the outflow boundary, which I then compared the SPC mesoanalysis with. This combination would give me high confidence to which counties should be included in a convective watch.
- For IR, I compared the tops with a sounding. From this, I could prove whether a feature was at or above the tropopause and an OT.
- I would like to see some algorithms take advantage of the 1-min data, such as CI
- With the firehose of data and busy warning operations, we can't sit and watch the imagery constantly, so it is nice to have products that highlight significant details in the imagery such as cooling, OT. This will be helpful to have from 1-min data with GOES-R.
Lightning Jump algorithm
- High lightning jumps often correlated with increases in probsevere
- LJ was occasionally useful, but wasn't consistent from storm to storm.
- The main cells stood out, but these were already obvious to me.
- We would like to correlate LJ with intense rainfall rates. There is usually a ton of lightning with heavy rainfall in Texas.
- I don't feel calibrated to it, so I don't know what the threshold should be to warn. 7+ were obvious, but 2-4 range I was unsure if it was significant.
- I would like a mouseover that shows you the details. This would also help one learn what exactly is a LJ.
- LJ's do help to make the significant storms stand out more than others, attracting your attention.
- I would prefer an outline for this product, but then overlaying with probsevere would get messy.
- Yesterday I had probsevere, lj, and warnings on one display. This seemed like a good SA display.
PGLM
- We would like to correlate lightning rate with intense rainfall rates. There is usually a lot of lightning activity with heavy rainfall in Texas.
- I want to make sure we can utilize it on top of other products; clean to look at.
- Contours would be nice as opposed to the blocks.
- I think ultimate use will be to get a quick glance for situational awareness.
NUCAPS
- There was a moist layer around 400 mb that was apparent in the 12z and 18z RAOBS that was captured by NUCAPS.
- I sampled on both sides of the dryline, and saw the expected difference in NUCAPS profiles.
LAP
- An area of convection in Texas developed west of the CAPE gradient in the stable air, due to errors in the GFS (which is used as a first guess for LAP).
- Looking at the CAPE field, the locations where GFS was used were underdone. The retrievals (clear and cloudy sky) where available bumped up the CAPE to more reasonable levels.
- Low level PW depicted the dry line really well. The location compared well with surface observations.
- These fields could be especially helpful in data sparse regions.
- We would like theta-e derived from LAP.
CI
- Severe CI had false alarms and misses yesterday
- With one of the false alarms ahead of the line of convection, you could see initial development, then it just dissipated quickly. Severe CI went up to 60.
- Regular CI generally seemed to hit on locations of future convection.
- In Wichita, we had relatively high severe CI values where severe convection did develop later.
- In Midland, there was a very high severe CI near 90 that developed into strong elevated convection.
- What I take from this product is a general situational awareness to target areas.
ProbSevere
- A handful of times, it didn't give much lead-time over when I would have normally warned. Radar signatures were there, but probsevere was below 50.
- When probsevere increased at the same time as radar, it was a confidence booster in out warnings.
- There were some instances when radar was on the edge for warning criteria, but ProbSevere jumped, to we went with a warning.
- It is tough to calibrate to the cwa and the weather situation at hand quickly.
- I saw 3 different occasions that once it got above 60, the storm intensified quickly.
- For reissuing, it helped with confidence, in addition to the radar.
- I felt like I was still ahead of ProbSevere for initial warnings when using basic radar methods.
- One situation with severe hail, radar signatures came down a bit to the point where I wouldn't reissue typically. But probsevere stayed up, so I kept warning, and later on the storm did amp back up and was clearly severe. In this case, I did reissue based on what probsevere was showing in a situation where I probably would not have otherwise.
- Yesterday storms were growing so fast that it didn't provide that much elad-time.
- It would be nice if it could focus more on individual storm cores within a line. Perhaps it could track higher up, like x dbz above -20Z
- In the far south, a pretty significant line of storms developed. The bulk of the line was severe, but the part that was in the southern part of our CWA was not severe. However, probsevere still had it at 90 since it was highlighting the whole line.
- I would like to see the degree of LJ in the probsevere readout.
1-min SRSOR imagery
- It was great having the ability to see all of the overshooting tops.
- It was great to see the progression of the dry lines in this manner.
- I could see the anvil forming and the feeder clouds before the anvil got too big. I could also infer shear from these features.
- It was easy to identify and track boundaries and gravity waves.
- It is very nice to have this for situational awareness. Much better than having to wait 15 minutes for an image.
- At the top of the storm, you could see rotational patterns in cells.
- I could clearly see the outflow boundary, which I then compared the SPC mesoanalysis with. This combination would give me high confidence to which counties should be included in a convective watch.
- For IR, I compared the tops with a sounding. From this, I could prove whether a feature was at or above the tropopause and an OT.
- I would like to see some algorithms take advantage of the 1-min data, such as CI
- With the firehose of data and busy warning operations, we can't sit and watch the imagery constantly, so it is nice to have products that highlight significant details in the imagery such as cooling, OT. This will be helpful to have from 1-min data with GOES-R.
Lightning Jump algorithm
- High lightning jumps often correlated with increases in probsevere
- LJ was occasionally useful, but wasn't consistent from storm to storm.
- The main cells stood out, but these were already obvious to me.
- We would like to correlate LJ with intense rainfall rates. There is usually a ton of lightning with heavy rainfall in Texas.
- I don't feel calibrated to it, so I don't know what the threshold should be to warn. 7+ were obvious, but 2-4 range I was unsure if it was significant.
- I would like a mouseover that shows you the details. This would also help one learn what exactly is a LJ.
- LJ's do help to make the significant storms stand out more than others, attracting your attention.
- I would prefer an outline for this product, but then overlaying with probsevere would get messy.
- Yesterday I had probsevere, lj, and warnings on one display. This seemed like a good SA display.
PGLM
- We would like to correlate lightning rate with intense rainfall rates. There is usually a lot of lightning activity with heavy rainfall in Texas.
- I want to make sure we can utilize it on top of other products; clean to look at.
- Contours would be nice as opposed to the blocks.
- I think ultimate use will be to get a quick glance for situational awareness.
NUCAPS
- There was a moist layer around 400 mb that was apparent in the 12z and 18z RAOBS that was captured by NUCAPS.
- I sampled on both sides of the dryline, and saw the expected difference in NUCAPS profiles.
PGLM Color Curve Evaluation
While this forecaster has a habit of making overly busy procedures, this image would typically not be a 4-panel. The display merely represents color options and what would seemingly be most functional in a warning environment. The top right image is favored by this forecaster, as the logarythmic color scale narrows the focus down to the really active storms the best. However, this color scale may also be improved by incorporating the concept of the two lower images that highlight certain values that can be correlated with levels of severity and or rainfall rates. This would especially be useful in the heavy rain environments, and alternative shaded overlay might be the Digital Precipitation Rate product that is useful for decision support in extreme rainfall events.
The DSS applications of the lightning products themselves may be difficult initially use operationally (eg. for the threat of "out-of-the-blue" or anvil lightning threats), but a season-long ingest of the data could eventually be useful in a probabilistic threat that could be used as a confidence factor that EMs and outdoor event managers can use as a level of tolerance for safety.
Forecaster: Manbearpig
pGLM colortables
We have asked a few of the forecasters to compare colortables for the pGLM product using the storms over central Oklahoma. Hopefully, we should see some opinions/posts coming soon.
The communications with the OKLMA network have not been the best in realtime, losing one or two stations can affect the overall flash rates, so ignore the pulsing of the activity as this is an artifact of detection efficiency.
--K. Calhoun
The communications with the OKLMA network have not been the best in realtime, losing one or two stations can affect the overall flash rates, so ignore the pulsing of the activity as this is an artifact of detection efficiency.
 |
| 4 panel of the different color tables available to the forecasters. Each one highlights different aspects from peak intensity to gradients and growth. The top left is the default available to the forecasters in AWIPS. |
 | ||
| Animation of the same 4 panel as above. |
 | |
| SRSOR visible with default pGLM color table at 30% transparency. Each have a 1 min update. |
 | ||
| SRSOR with optional colortable (top right from 4 panel above) also with 30% transparency. |
Friday, April 22, 2016
Week 1 (18-22 April 2016) Summary and Feedback
For the final day of the week, our groups participated in the Lincoln, St. Louis, and San Antonio CWA's. Below are final comments from participants recorded during the end-of-the-week debrief.
LAP
- I would like to see theta-e and theta-e difference computed from this.
- I would like the LPW layers to different (sfc-850, 850-700, 700-500, 500-300). 500-300 is valuable for diagnosing heavy rainfall, extending to 700 washes the signal out. You also might see ll dry layers better in the 850-700 layer.
- There needs to be a strong push to make LPW baseline with GOES-R
- Patterns in the fields matched up with what I expected.
- It was cool to see moisture evolution tracing the terrain
- Convection typically initiated along the gradients.
- We thought the fields looked really good.
CI
- All like the idea of having a regular CI and severe CI
- In Illinois yesterday, marginal fairly widespread mostly sub-severe convection. Days like this is where Severe CI would be helpful in telling us that developing convection would remain non-severe.
- CI is good for a quick glance, then I dive deeper into other tools.
- sub-30% just cluttered up screen, so I would make this transparent.
- Sometimes the display was too overwhelming.
Probsevere
- I didn't like the color curve at first, but by the end of the week I really liked it.
- Dual-Pol fields might help with Tor probabilities, theta-e difference for winds
- I envision a 4-panel display with ProbSevere, ProbWind, ProbHail, ProbTor
- A Hydo ProbSevere would be helpful.
- It would have to be alittle more dynamic in terms of predictors used in varying regimes. It didn't seem to perform well in High CAPE, low shear situations. Perhaps in such cases, less emphasis should be put on MESH.
1-min imagery
- I was fine with the appearance of the parallax-corrected imagery
Satellite-derived winds
- Yesterday the winds confirmed a mid-level jet coming around the base of the low in the 600-700 mb layer.
- These could be helpful in depicting the nocturnal LLJ
- These could be helpful for hydro situations, especially with terrain.
- I like the idea of deriving LL shear from the surface obs to the visible winds. This could be helpful for TAFS also.
- Models generally don't do very well with winds in the low-levels, making these important.
Lightning Jump
- I thought it had predictive skill for severe convection
- I'd like to see a transparent or contour display
- I think I would mostly look at the 5-min max. It would be nice if this told me the exact time of the jump.
- I'd like to see the addition of a trend graph.
- Some sort of table or a separate app to monitor products, including ProbSevere, in real-time would be nice.
GLM
- I recommend contouring flash density, as opposed to the pixel look, for overlaying purposes.
- A colortable simialr to ProbSevere would be a good option. Brighter display with increasing density.
- I like to overlay lightning data on radar or satellite.
- It will be helpful to have condensed, quick reference material available for using lightning data while on shift.
- Climo that will come out of GLM will be helpful.
- Some blended total lightning product would b helpful
- Offices may need a lightning FP given all of the different lightning data. This is a training issue.
- NWS forecasters are not used to incorporating lightning into their forecast products, they are behind the curve. Part of the problem is training, part is people needing to get out of their comfort zones.
NUCAPS
- Modifications to the sfc/low-levels are a necessity. We need to see the CAP.
- In it's current state, I think it is a tough sell. But if we are able to incorporate the automatic adjustments, it'll be easier to show others the benefits.
- I would like to see weighting functions/sensitivity functions for the information used in NUCAPS>
LAP
- I would like to see theta-e and theta-e difference computed from this.
- I would like the LPW layers to different (sfc-850, 850-700, 700-500, 500-300). 500-300 is valuable for diagnosing heavy rainfall, extending to 700 washes the signal out. You also might see ll dry layers better in the 850-700 layer.
- There needs to be a strong push to make LPW baseline with GOES-R
- Patterns in the fields matched up with what I expected.
- It was cool to see moisture evolution tracing the terrain
- Convection typically initiated along the gradients.
- We thought the fields looked really good.
CI
- All like the idea of having a regular CI and severe CI
- In Illinois yesterday, marginal fairly widespread mostly sub-severe convection. Days like this is where Severe CI would be helpful in telling us that developing convection would remain non-severe.
- CI is good for a quick glance, then I dive deeper into other tools.
- sub-30% just cluttered up screen, so I would make this transparent.
- Sometimes the display was too overwhelming.
Probsevere
- I didn't like the color curve at first, but by the end of the week I really liked it.
- Dual-Pol fields might help with Tor probabilities, theta-e difference for winds
- I envision a 4-panel display with ProbSevere, ProbWind, ProbHail, ProbTor
- A Hydo ProbSevere would be helpful.
- It would have to be alittle more dynamic in terms of predictors used in varying regimes. It didn't seem to perform well in High CAPE, low shear situations. Perhaps in such cases, less emphasis should be put on MESH.
1-min imagery
- I was fine with the appearance of the parallax-corrected imagery
Satellite-derived winds
- Yesterday the winds confirmed a mid-level jet coming around the base of the low in the 600-700 mb layer.
- These could be helpful in depicting the nocturnal LLJ
- These could be helpful for hydro situations, especially with terrain.
- I like the idea of deriving LL shear from the surface obs to the visible winds. This could be helpful for TAFS also.
- Models generally don't do very well with winds in the low-levels, making these important.
Lightning Jump
- I thought it had predictive skill for severe convection
- I'd like to see a transparent or contour display
- I think I would mostly look at the 5-min max. It would be nice if this told me the exact time of the jump.
- I'd like to see the addition of a trend graph.
- Some sort of table or a separate app to monitor products, including ProbSevere, in real-time would be nice.
GLM
- I recommend contouring flash density, as opposed to the pixel look, for overlaying purposes.
- A colortable simialr to ProbSevere would be a good option. Brighter display with increasing density.
- I like to overlay lightning data on radar or satellite.
- It will be helpful to have condensed, quick reference material available for using lightning data while on shift.
- Climo that will come out of GLM will be helpful.
- Some blended total lightning product would b helpful
- Offices may need a lightning FP given all of the different lightning data. This is a training issue.
- NWS forecasters are not used to incorporating lightning into their forecast products, they are behind the curve. Part of the problem is training, part is people needing to get out of their comfort zones.
NUCAPS
- Modifications to the sfc/low-levels are a necessity. We need to see the CAP.
- In it's current state, I think it is a tough sell. But if we are able to incorporate the automatic adjustments, it'll be easier to show others the benefits.
- I would like to see weighting functions/sensitivity functions for the information used in NUCAPS>
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