Tall cell in western GGW's area

Strong updraft in western GGW showed the red colors going over to greens...likely the updraft getting into the warmer stratosphere.
Day cloud phase distinction loop over the area shows a continued strong updraft with gravity waves radiating outward.



Quite a bit of flashes in that cell in GGW.

Charley

Stronger Core

Continuing the SVR downstream, as yet another strong core pops up.  Colder cloud on IR and now prob severe is starting to jump up.  Blue color showing ProbHail and ProbWind in the 30s.
Cell also showing more signs of organization in the SRM...better chances for hail.



Also getting a pickup from the DMD (latency issue still for NMDA).



Charley

Two Severes ongoing Fergus County

IR imagery from GOES-West shows good updrafts continuing to radiated waves outward from warned storms in Fergus County.



...but ProbSevere continues to run cold.  Unfortunately it will be very tough to verify my warning given the rural nature of the area.



MESH tracks followed nicely the cells in the warning...though primary thought was these were wind producers.  Still seeing very bright TOE on GOES-West with these cells.

Charley

SVR issued more because of previous reports

Had separate reports of 51 and 58 mph from earlier storms in the area.  ProbSevere wasn't very high in those cells, and neither was the lightning FED.  Given a high DCAPE environment, decided to pull the trigger a little earlier on some of the stronger cells going up.

Charley

Cell Near Twin Bridges, MT, still not severe, though growing

IR shows that cell as having the coldest cloud top.  Donovan heights are around 20 kft for 50dbz to get 1" hail.  This cell is near it, but ProbSevere is not too excited about it just yet.  MESH is under dime-sized and thus ProbHail is 7% now.  Will monitor for further development.  Issuing SPS for pea sized hail now.

Western Wyoming Cell Developing

IR imagery showing a taller/colder cell in western Wyoming.  KRIW radar just switched from VCP 35 to 12.  Peak Z aloft now only around 30.  Lightning data, below, shows relatively low FED, but higher TOE, with peak values in the 300's, similar to some of the storms we saw yesterday.



One other thing to note in these, is the relatively low FED and number of ENTLN/NLDN flashes.  That doesn't mesh with the brightness of the TOE.

Charley

Line Running Into Drier Air?

IR and RGB imagery showing outflow coming out of the storms in the eastern LSX area not firing up additional storms.  NUCAPS 400-200 mb RH product shows quite a bit of drier air that the line is pushing into.  More moisture is west of the MO/IL line, so that part of the line may have a better chance to maintain themselves/develop new cores ahead of the line along that outflow.

Charley

Storms Persist over the Western MPX CWA

Issued 3 consecutive SVR's for hail on those western storms. Still a signal for hail, but not as strong now.  More worried about a flash flood threat there given the persistence.

Charley

GLM

Noticed the FED was matching up well with ENTLN data in our eastern cells, but then the cells to the west should have been electrically active as well.  ENTLN data shows several flashes, but FED from GLM is minimal.

Charley

Watching to the west again

Where AllSky says LI is -8, new development on IR.

Good for a quick glance

As you're debating issuing a tornado or severe warning, it is good to see the lightning changes over time as well as cloud tops.  Both are trending more severe in the image above.

Severe Threat over Minnesota This Afternoon

Ongoing complex of thunderstorms pushing into south central MN this hour.  Have a new set of thunderstorms forming in what AllSky is showing as a higher CAPE environment along the outflow pushing out from this complex.  ProbSevere has picked up on this cell as well (near Milan)...showing a Hail chance of 55% now and growing quickly.  Will monitor the downstream growth of both systems.

-82 C Overshooting Top Precedes FED Lightning Jump

GOES-16 10.3 um IR channel in the lower right panel captured an exceptionally cold overshooting top at -82 C.  This occurred toward the beginning of the animation at 2311Z in far northern Oklahoma (south of Coffeyville, KS) and preceded a large jump in the flash extend density (upper left).  The minimum flash area did not change much during this loop, so it may be advantageous for this component of GLM to have a higher spatial resolution than what is currently used. The GLM RGB product (upper right) merges the flash extent density, minimum flash area, and 10.3 um cloud top temperatures.  A group of bright cyan and white pixels helped highlight where all three of the aforementioned components were maximized.  In addition to a substantial increase in the flash extent density 5-10 min following the -82 C cloud top temp., ENTLN ground based lightning flash counts doubled during the same time. 

Although the environmental conditions already supported warning on this storm prior to the overshooting top (OT), seeing the FED and ground based lighting double, likely  in response to the intense OT, may push a forecaster to upgrade the severity of the warning (larger hail, higher winds etc.) -Roy

GLM flash rate, size, and RGB with IR

Loop on 22 May 2019, 21:36-22:06 UTC, showing a combined view of ABI Ch 1610.3 micron IR and GLM minimum flash area and flash extent density (top left). Other panels show the individual channels that contribute: FED (red), AFA (green) and IR (blue)

This pair of supercells near Tulsa, OK illustrates how flash rate and flash area information can complement one another. High flash rates and small flashes usually go together in a small updraft. However, at 2145 UTC the flash rate is much higher in the southern storm at the same time its minimum flash size is larger, with the opposite pattern in the northern storm. The northern storm was tornadic at this time. Shortly thereafter, the large flash rates decreased in the southern cell, and the average flash size became smaller, while cloud top brightness temperatures rapidly cooled and the extent of the anvil spread. The southern cell would soon go on to produce its own tornado.

The RGB panel in the top left combines the flash information together with the ABI 10.3 thermal infrared data: the coldest cloud tops and small flashes lead to a bright cyan color, and high flash rates push the colors further toward white. Early on the northern cell exhibits cyan colors while the southern cell is green and burgundy. Later, the southern cell becomes more cyan, while the northern cell takes on a more green hue.

Apparently, the jump in flash rate in the southern cell was an indicator of a strengthening updraft and the development of a mesocyclone. The drop in flash rate and minimum flash size might have been due to (1) a shift to small flashes that didn't make as much light, (2) extinction of light by an increasingly ice-rich, optically thick cloud, or (3) other instrument artifacts. While the explanation is less than clear-cut, synthesis of multiple sources of information improves the ability to understand the observations.

-deeplycloudy

Mexican Severe Storm

A strong low level moisture gradient showed up on the Sfc- 0.9sigma AllSkyLAP image early in the afternoon south of the Big Bend region in Mexico. This could serve as an initiating boundary later in the afternoon.

Low Level AllSkyLAP and Low Level IR/WV top, mid level AllSkyLAP and IR/WV bottom

A look at the NUCAPS Forecast CAPE from the ~21Z pass showed over 3000 J/KG of CAPE at the 03Z Forecast hour. Earlier forecast hours (00-02Z) were missing data, however, if you interpolated between available data points, it seemed as though there was a maxima of CAPE in the area. It was noted that a storm developed around 21Z.

NUCAPS Forecast 03Z Forecast

To gain more detail, I clicked on a NUCAPS modified sounding east of the low level moisture gradient in the vicinity of the storm. It's clear this is a very unstable sounding, capable of producing (at least) large hail. This clued me  in on how fast the storm could become severe. Certainly would not have had a special 19-20Z sounding in this area without NUCAPS and would have solely relied on model forecast soundings.


NUCAPS sounding from Mexico ahead of low level moisture gradient at 20Z

Even though it is far away from the KCRP radar, prob severe quickly showed the developing storm ramp up and have very high severe hail (and wind) probabilities (roughly within 15 minutes of initiation). If the NUCAPS forecast is right, this storm would likely continue into the evening given the abundant instability.

Prob Severe from KCRP looking in Mexico

-Tempest Sooner

Event Density with RGB Composite VIS/IR Sandwich

Image 1 shows the  GOES16 RGB Composite VIS/IR Sandwich.  This product displays the texture of the convective cloud tops and the temperature of those cloud tops.  The texture and temperature of the clouds provides information about the updraft.  The 2nd image shows the most intense GOESR GLM event densities and how they correspond with the taller clouds and strong updrafts. - Jonathan W. Smith (ESSIC/UMD)

This was interesting

Since things were kinda boring over HGX today I had to look for things to blog about. Here is something interesting that I noticed with the Vis/IR Sandwich RGB. At the beginning of the loop the RGB didn't show any IR brightness temperatures. As the TCU continued to develop we saw pixels of IR brightness temperatures starting to show up indicating cold cloud tops and the potential for glaciation to start. Low and behold, if we continue to watch the loop, more pixels start showing up...and a few minutes later both GLM and ground based networks picked up on a couple of CGs. As the thunderstorm developed, cloud tops cooled and more pixels started getting displayed we began to see more lightning.  This was something that I didn't expect the RGB to pick up on and potentially helpful for situational awareness and IDSS in the west where most lightning tends to come from single cell thunderstorms. If you are able to pick up on these ahead of time you may be able to some lead time before lightning occurs.



Update...it happened again, pixels starting being displayed and then lightning occurred within a couple of minutes. If this generally hold true for single cell thunderstorms this would be awesome for outdoor IDSS.

Comparison of ATPW and Blended TPW

I was finally able to take a look the ATPW (top left) and compare it with the operational blended TPW (top right). My first impression was that both products show similar large scale patterns with a large plume of moisture extending from the Gulf of Mexico into the Ohio River Valley. The ATPW also tends to show a little more detail in the moisture field compared to the blended TPW.

At 15Z ATPW shows an area of lower moisture over the Texas Gulf coast which is sort of fills in by 17Z, likely due to upstream moisture being advected into the area. In contrast, this moisture is continuously present in the blended TPW. ATPW generally had PWATs around 1.5 in, while the blended TPW had PWATs around 1.7-1.8 in. In contrast, 12Z RAOBs along the coast had PWATs that ranged from 1.6 inches at KBRO to around 1.8 at KLCH. These values seems to match better with the blended TPW product. I suspect that the upstream convection over Louisiana and lingering clouds over the coast impacted the ATPW that was corrected in the blended TPW.

Here's an exciting non-case. Hooary!

In this example, Houston County in the far Northern HGX CWA was in horrible radar coverage with 0.5 degree radar scans over 12kft AGL. With the success of GLM FED predicting severe storms earlier in the day this was used to give confidence NOT to issue a warning for this area, despite slight bowing in the sloppy reflectivity and an abundance of activity in the ENTLN network.



#ProtectAndDissipate

GLM Activity In Developing Line of Storms

The outflow from the main line of storms was moving west and combined with a strong cell which was spawned off the dryline, resulting in a strong line of storms forming where the two converged. Something that was noted was the delay in GLM FED with the developing convection, where flashes could be seen quickly from the ENTLN. Chalked this up to the optical depth of the storm at the time covering the flashed from the GLM given the extent of cloud-to-ground strikes. Later on, a line of increased GLM FED could be seen.





#ProtectAndDissipate