Similar Soundings

Modified NUCAPS sounding near ILX is pretty similar to KILX special sounding taken at 17Z!  MUCAPES both around 3000 and LI -9.
Values similar to AllSky at 18Z.




Those CAPE values near 2500 J/kg...also similar.
This similarity gives us some confidence in new forecasts, especially in clear sky regions out ahead in the AllSky data.
The forecast NUCAPS CAPE does not show much to the south of our line...and based on clear skies and warm conditions to the south would tend to lean away from this forecast.



Charley

NUCAPS Forecast showing increasing CAPE in the south

The gridded NUCAPS forecast indicates higher CAPE values moving east into the southern IND area the next few hours. Will be expecting severe thunderstorms to develop later today.

All Sky LAP CAPE and NUCAPS forecast contrast

A vigorous line of storms was moving into the NW corner of the ARX CWA prior to 23z.  The All Sky LAP CAPE showed decreasing values (~1100 J/kg) heading into this region.  In contrast, the NUCAPS forecast (un-interpolated image shown) depicted values of ~3000-4000 J/kg.  Based on the initial behavior of the storms, the higher instability values in the NUCAPS appear to have better verification.

Forecast NUCAPS Info

NUCAPS data indicates well the area that has received rain, and the airmass the current cluster will be going into (the colors just outside of the blacked-out area.



As we were thinking of some tornadogenesis earlier, seeing the relatively high LCLs from this product may deter us from issuing a later TOR warning.
Charley

Examining the NUCAPS FCST of CAPE

Below is a loop of the NUCAPS CAPE forecast for the afternoon across the CTP CWA.



Unfortunately, the product is very blocky, and makes it hard to use, especially since some of the missing data is in the time and place where high impact weather may occur. It's clear that it is trying to show some elevated CAPE moving across central Pennsylvania, but the values are very suspect to me given the missing chunks of information.

Thorcaster

NUCAPS FCAST

Knowing that the NUCAPS FCAST information was in today for the first time this week, I decided to do some analysis of the fields. Initial thoughts are that the missing blocks of data (not sure if that is typical - more visible in the CAPE field in top image - similar data holes observed in LCL, LFC and EL) make it hard to have confidence in it at first glance.

CAPE (Top Image)
NUCAPS FCAST CAPE data isn't good in the pre-storm environment along the LA coast. RAP13 initialization is overlayed for comparison. RAP13 values are 2500-3500+ and much more representating thatn the NUCAPS values that in some cases are less than  500 ahead of the line.

CINH (Lower Image)
While these values appear to be more closely representative compared to the RAP13, the inability of the product to adequately represent the boundary layer at times during the week don't provide me much confidence for these surface based stability parameters.

-icafunnel

NEW NUCAPS

NUCAPS offer a way to get a vertical profile of the atmosphere across the US. However, in areas where soundings were not "retrievable" it can leave many of the products with large holes in them.



Default Output From NUCAPS on w/ vis satellite
A great application would be some type of algorithm that fills in the "data holes" Two ways to approch this would be:

1.  Linear interpolation between the grids
2. Use a model such as the RAP to fill in the gaps

A quick attempt at a combined product with the NUCAPs Forecast and the RAP.[/caption]
A smoothing of some sort would still benefit the product above, but this would be of great benefit to forecaster's trying to determine the afternoon environment. (Note: I think it would be beneficial to include a mask that said whether the data was from NUCAPs or a model in each location if a product like this was developed. All in all, this is a useful product, but it needs some further refining.

South Beach

Del Dot CAPE in NUCAPS Forecast

NUCAPS forecast product unrealistically advects the CAPE east through the evening. In reality the CAPE axis extends along and east of the Rio Grande and will likely stay in place but slowly modify toward sunset. Also it might improve the product to interpolate or fill in the gaps with a model (actually Jake's comment) not mine.



-- SCoulomb