The final week of the 2016 GOES-R/JPSS Spring Experiment concluded with our two pairs operating in the Nashville and Huntsville CWAs. Both were able to evaluate the PGLM product via the Huntsville LMA.
LAP
- Convection developed along the moisture and instability gradients in LAP.
- I liked seeing the model data where retrievals were unavailable. In addition to having a continuous field, it often allowed for quick comparisons of retrievals with nearby GFS.
- Our office does look at K-Index for flash flood situations.
- 30-min is a good temporal update frequency. Too frequent of updates would not be that useful, as such fields do not change so rapidly.
- Layer PW was my favorite LAP product as it was most unique, and added value to my analysis. It was particularly useful on days when we had strong low-level moisture advection, tracking the movement of moisture, and dry air aloft.
GOES-R CI
- When I had 1-min imagery, I did not need CI because I could identify areas of imminent CI in the imagery.
- In situations where you are expecting severe thunderstorm activity, you's look more at severe CI. Regular CI was not as useful for severe situations because you could see cb development in the 1-min data.
- When looking for general thunderstorms, I see CI being more helpful, including in the cool season. This would be valuable for DSS purposes.
- I found utility in having both CI products up. If severe CI was pinging on something in addition to regular CI, it helped to focus attention to particular areas of interest.
- It would be helpful to see probability trends for a particular cloud/area.
- We were fine with the display concept
- I like the current instantaneous visualization over a smoothed probability field approach.
ProbSevere
- It would be nice to see a meteogram with a history of ProbSevere probs.
- Everyone is fine with the display and color-scale.
- Similar to VIL of the day, might be helpful to determine "ProbSevere Prob" of the day.
- I think it really well with discrete cells, but later would merge nearby cells.
- I would say this was my favorite product outside of the 10min imagery.
- I thought it performed great this week.
- We would all use this in operations.
- I've worked 5 or 6 severe events in the last month, and I've ProbSevere up for all of them. Usually I have storm relative velocity all tilts, regular velocity in the middle, and the third screen has different fields, including composite reflectivity with ProbSevere. I've also even started putting it on all-tilts. The display does not distract me. In my office, the threshold to warn depends on the day, but I've found with most of our events, especially with severe wind, we can get severe with a threshold of ~60%. Definitely not using it as a yes/no.
SRSOR
- All forecasters loved using it this week!
- 5-min is certainly bettern than 15. But when you are tracking low-end severe situations, subtle boundaries can make all the difference between something going up or not. We get better than 5-min radar data, but 1-min satellite data can fill gaps that we still have. 5-min will be useufl, but 1-min is optimal.
- I think it is certainly time to make the jump to 1-min satellite imagery. There is so much that can be seen, even outside of convection. Forecasters need to use satellite data more in day to day operations. Generally, I think forecasters don't think satellite imagery is as useful as it is, and they have a hard time understanding exactly how much they will see in the 1-min imagery.
- It was helpful to view long loops of the 1-min imagery on the regional scale to get a big picture idea of how the system was evolving.
- It was really helpful for analyzing frontal structure and all the different boundaries.
- Satellite imagery is truly the only visual representation you have of a storm that you can't get with any other product.
- I found it useful to match 1-min lightning data with 1-min satellite data.
SRSOR Winds
- I liked the winds a lot. You could see the vertical structure of a front, and how winds changed with height from the surface. Seeing rapid change over a short vertical distance was intriguing. AMV's could be a big help with our TAFs.
- I felt that the low-level winds were more useful than the upper-level winds. They indicated areas of low-level convergence, moisture transport, veering of winds from the surface, potential for tornadoes.
Lightning Jump
- I liked it more as the week went on. I usually used it in tandem with ProbSevere and PGLM Flash Extent Density. I could see all of these being in a 4-panel and helping with situational awareness for severe operations. Especially on Thursday, I noticed the storms with the biggest LJ's were the ones that strengthened considerably thereafter.
- I'll be interested to use this during cool season events, as I am always looking for more information in these situations.
- I like the way it is now, though I can see others preferring a contoured look.
- I like a 4-panel layout with ProbSevere, lightning jump, Severe CI, Lightning, composite reflectivity, and satellite imagery.
- Forecasters are/will always change to their preferred color tables.
- There will always be a spot for a product like Lightning Jump in my display.
GLM Total Lightning
- The lightning data will be very helpful for DSS - events, fairs, etc. It will be very helpful to have this information updating every 1 minute.
- Especially for cool season events, we are always looking for more data. Lightning from satellite will be helpful.
- I can see this being helpful in EM's decisions to evacuate stadiums.
- This will be big for us during fire weather season in the NW US.
- In the future, with lightning in field offices, there must be very good training on all of this. There is/will be a lot of different lightning data. Generally, forecasters do not know the differences in lightning verbage.
- I will likely overlay it on radar or satellite.
- LMA-1 was the favorite among the group
NUCAPS
- The plan view and cross-section components were my favorite aspect of NUCAPS this week
- The lure is that it is an observation. I think it should remain observationally driven, even though we know there could be a source of error. If so, we know the source of the error. If you add in model data, you don't always know the source of the error.
- Pop-up skew-T will be good to use before and during an event with NUCAPS.
- Modification is not an issue for me. In our office we modify RAP soundings all the time. It takes some time, but it works.
- NUCAPS has a lot of potential, but a lot of bust potential for captivating an office.
- I can't get anyone to look at it in my office in Portland.
- The lack of detail is a killer. That's why I think plan view and cross section displays are more valuable.
- People will use it if they see the value, and it is made clear that this is an observation.
General
- Participants felt that the start of week orientation/familiarization was great.
- It was the perfect amount of products to evaluate.
- It would be nice to have a DRT WES case for slow days.
- I suggest having a group briefing after the groups complete their mesoscale analysis but before CI.
- The broadcaster commented that this was a great experience, and it was wonderful to be able to work directly with NWS forecasters.
- Some of the training material should be put on the CLC so we can go back and look at it in the future.
Showing posts with label SRSOR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SRSOR. Show all posts
Friday, May 13, 2016
Thursday, May 12, 2016
SRSOR Sandwich
Below is a SRSOR 1-min-updating animation of visible imagery with transparent IR imagery overlaid. This imagery depicts the line of convection moving into the Southeast, through our area of operation today (Huntsville and Nashville). This image combination allows forecasters to view rapidly changing storm-top features with the detail of the higher-res visible imagery and ability to see/sample temperature from the IR imagery.
Final Thoughts 5/12/16 HUN
Final thoughts on the day. Today was a huge success for the PGLM. Looking at flash densities for storms in the Huntsville area was highly beneficial. I liked that the output was not tied to the cells and also I preferred the smoothing on the product. As I was not really interrogating it like I would radar data, smoothing was preferred and I could see easily exporting this to an emergency manager or social media post.
Atmospheric vectors did a great job of showing the structure of the pre-frontal trough in the vertical.
1 minute data was vital in tracking the speed of the prefrontal trough, outflow boundaries and the front itself as the afternoon evolved. As always, tracking overshooting tops was beneficial to the warning process and also to monitor storms as they were decaying as well.
NUCAPS did well with the soundings and was also impressed by the theta-e cross section presented across the frontal boundary. While some observational data still needed to be modified, I could see this data being highly useful in the office.
ProbSevere was understandably lower today in this environment but qualitatively the worst cells had the highest probsevere ratings. As a forecaster, this was still a useful product to have today.
CI didn't have a chance to present itself today as convection had already initiated before the session began. - Jason Bourne
Atmospheric vectors did a great job of showing the structure of the pre-frontal trough in the vertical.
1 minute data was vital in tracking the speed of the prefrontal trough, outflow boundaries and the front itself as the afternoon evolved. As always, tracking overshooting tops was beneficial to the warning process and also to monitor storms as they were decaying as well.
NUCAPS did well with the soundings and was also impressed by the theta-e cross section presented across the frontal boundary. While some observational data still needed to be modified, I could see this data being highly useful in the office.
ProbSevere was understandably lower today in this environment but qualitatively the worst cells had the highest probsevere ratings. As a forecaster, this was still a useful product to have today.
CI didn't have a chance to present itself today as convection had already initiated before the session began. - Jason Bourne
1 Min Vis Satellite: Normal image vs. parallax-corrected image
In addition to the 1 minute visible satellite imagery, we also had access to a parallax-corrected version of the product this week. It was interesting to compare the two images.
Below are 2 images centered over northern Alabama. There are several overshooting tops apparent on developing cells. Comparing the locations of the centers of the overshooting tops, I found that the the regular and the parallax-corrected images differed by around 8-10 miles. This could make a significant difference if a forecaster was using an overshooting top to try to center a warning track.
Note: I also discovered today that overlaying lightning flash density from the pGLM network on top of the satellite imagery was a nice display. In this case, you can see that the higher flash densities better correspond to the overshooting tops on the parallax-corrected image. - JP
Normal visible imagery
Parallax-corrected visible imagery
Below are 2 images centered over northern Alabama. There are several overshooting tops apparent on developing cells. Comparing the locations of the centers of the overshooting tops, I found that the the regular and the parallax-corrected images differed by around 8-10 miles. This could make a significant difference if a forecaster was using an overshooting top to try to center a warning track.
Note: I also discovered today that overlaying lightning flash density from the pGLM network on top of the satellite imagery was a nice display. In this case, you can see that the higher flash densities better correspond to the overshooting tops on the parallax-corrected image. - JP
Normal visible imagery
Broadcast media perspectives of new products
This week I was lucky enough to experiment with tools and products that will help forecasters make faster and more accurate decisions regarding severe weather. As someone who works on the TV side of things, I have a different view of how useful these products could be to me and my colleagues. While the forecasters main goal is to issue timely warnings to save lives and property, my goal is to quickly and clearly communicate warnings and threats to the public, via tv, social media. etc... .
While ALL the products are valuable, there are several which I would think would be most beneficial to me if I had them available to me to share with viewers
1 minute VIS. Satellite- Total eye candy...after all I work in a visual world. The stunning displays would give our viewers something to look at, and I could point out certain features that concerned me (rapid development etc...).
Lightning Jump- Another one of my favorite visual tools. I would use a modified version of this, and obviously the language wouldn't be "sigma". I could however imagine a version of this where the categories were small-moderate-large-extreme...or negative. It would be easy to communicate quickly that if we see these jumps, that means the potential is there for severe storm development, or at least these storms warrant close watching. Once storms reach severe levels I'm not sure I would continue to use that tool. I believe I would switch at that point to PGLM.
PGLM- I would use this tool to track severe storms and show the lightning. We currently show lightning flash counts, and the viewers love it, but I would prefer the visual display presented as it is in PGLM.
PROB Severe- Initially I was ALL FOR IT. I loved the outline display. After tracking storms in the Southeast today where the product under-performed due to a different atmospheric environment, an environment that is much closer to my home one, I changed my mind. If this product could be fine tuned specifically for region or season, then I would LOVE to show viewers a severe probability parameter storm cell by storm cell.
CI & CI Severe- Still unsure of the value this would have to viewers. If there were no storms present, but storms expected I could see this being something that could help show storm potential, but I would want to have higher confidence in the product. I would probably also only want to show probs of 80 or higher on air.
Even though I wouldn't necessarily use the assessment products on air (LAP, NU CAPS) I am glad that NWS forecasters will have these available because I see their value as well.
-StormFront
While ALL the products are valuable, there are several which I would think would be most beneficial to me if I had them available to me to share with viewers
1 minute VIS. Satellite- Total eye candy...after all I work in a visual world. The stunning displays would give our viewers something to look at, and I could point out certain features that concerned me (rapid development etc...).
Lightning Jump- Another one of my favorite visual tools. I would use a modified version of this, and obviously the language wouldn't be "sigma". I could however imagine a version of this where the categories were small-moderate-large-extreme...or negative. It would be easy to communicate quickly that if we see these jumps, that means the potential is there for severe storm development, or at least these storms warrant close watching. Once storms reach severe levels I'm not sure I would continue to use that tool. I believe I would switch at that point to PGLM.
PGLM- I would use this tool to track severe storms and show the lightning. We currently show lightning flash counts, and the viewers love it, but I would prefer the visual display presented as it is in PGLM.
PROB Severe- Initially I was ALL FOR IT. I loved the outline display. After tracking storms in the Southeast today where the product under-performed due to a different atmospheric environment, an environment that is much closer to my home one, I changed my mind. If this product could be fine tuned specifically for region or season, then I would LOVE to show viewers a severe probability parameter storm cell by storm cell.
CI & CI Severe- Still unsure of the value this would have to viewers. If there were no storms present, but storms expected I could see this being something that could help show storm potential, but I would want to have higher confidence in the product. I would probably also only want to show probs of 80 or higher on air.
Even though I wouldn't necessarily use the assessment products on air (LAP, NU CAPS) I am glad that NWS forecasters will have these available because I see their value as well.
-StormFront
2030-2250 UTC GOES-14 SRSOR MEGA-LOOP
The 1-min loop over the past few hours provides the user with the aesthetic and meteorological beauty of the GOES-14 SRSOR-1-min imagery.
For example, a short-wave can be seen over IA, with plenty of post frontal stratocumulus and cumulus over the upper Midwest, western Great Lakes Region, and IL.
Upper level cirrus, and anvil blow-off from the convection over KY, TN, and OH continues to move into the central Great Lakes Region ahead of the cold front.
Finally, the overshooting tops and cumulonimbus evolution of the strong to severe thunderstorms can be beautifully seen over the TN Valley, Midwest, and the OH Valley.
May the Force be with You!
-Yodamaster777
For example, a short-wave can be seen over IA, with plenty of post frontal stratocumulus and cumulus over the upper Midwest, western Great Lakes Region, and IL.
Upper level cirrus, and anvil blow-off from the convection over KY, TN, and OH continues to move into the central Great Lakes Region ahead of the cold front.
Finally, the overshooting tops and cumulonimbus evolution of the strong to severe thunderstorms can be beautifully seen over the TN Valley, Midwest, and the OH Valley.
May the Force be with You!
-Yodamaster777
1-minute satellite capturing front and pre-frontal trough
Looking at 1-minute imagery west of the HUN CWA the approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough are clearly visible and can be tracked with the data. The northeastern edge of the pre-frontal trough is moving into the HUN CWA and extends south and west through Mississippi and into Arkansas and Louisiana. Behind it...the actually cold front signaled by a drop in dewpoints is moving through central Arkansas. Surface observations are overlayed for illustration. Below is a still shot and a .gif to show the tracking ability with the one minute data. - Jason Bourne
Using 1 minute Satellite in desicion NOT to warn
-Stormfront
PS-This storm had our HIGHEST prob. severe of the day by far. In this environment it was tempting to warn based on that alone....
OHX: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Our first warning for the day was issued northeast of the city of Nashville, where a jump occurred with the pGLM data. The SVR TSRA polygon was overlayed show how the lightning jump was used in the preceding scan.
-Yodamaster777
The 4 panel below shows the Sig Probs only rose to 21%, but a distinct velocity maximum of 50-55 kts was occurring and the 1-min visibility nicely shows the strong updrafts with rapid cooling in the IR imagery. This storm was was likely capable of damaging winds.
-Yodamaster777
1 Min Visible Sat Shows Convection Developing on Outflow Boundary
We noticed an outflow boundary moving into our CWA from the Huntsville CWA to our south. Convection is developing along this line and is producing several cells that are generating quite a bit of lightning activity.
We issued a severe thunderstorm warning on one of the cells for Coffee, Warren, and Grundy conties that produced a significant lightning jump. The flash extent density value reached around 40. -JP
We issued a severe thunderstorm warning on one of the cells for Coffee, Warren, and Grundy conties that produced a significant lightning jump. The flash extent density value reached around 40. -JP
PGLM and 1-min Overshooting top HUN
Captured a good shot of 1 minute imagery with an overshooting top in the warning box. This was a good example of a line of storms moving to the northeast that all looked fairly equal for a while. Then there was this overshooting top that corresponded with a jump in the flash rate the corresponed well. In the end there was a report of quarter size hail with this storm but it was in a county that was in the far southeastern flank of the warning polygon. This did not line up with the storm but the blowoff from the storm is travelling to the southeast. It could be possible that hail from this storm was blown southeastward out of the storm and thus landing in the adjacent county. Or it could have been a suspect report. -Jason Bourne
HUN Mesoanalysis 5/12/16
Soggy environment in place in HUN this afternoon as almost 1.5 inches of PW is in place and LAP layered PW shows that this pretty much extends through the entire column but the wettest levels below 700 mb. This is confirmed on both a RAP sounding in the area and the NUCAPS sounding. After modification...NUCAPS did very well despite the amount of moisture in the column. A comparison of the NUCAPS and the RAP soundings are below.
Looking at a wide angle of 1-minute satellite data...a cold front can be seen pushing through Arkansas with the wind shift ahead of it approaching the Mississippi border. This line should be the focus of convection later this afternoon with a more linear structure as this is where the highest shear values are. Further east...storms firing are more instability driven at this time with almost 3000 J/kg of cape across the area. That being said...low level lapse rates are very strong but mid levels are very weak and storms are having a hard time gaining any height. With the freezing level around 11 kft...severe hail will be hard to get in this scenario.
Looking at storms on the radar now...a storm over north central Alabama has had a flash density of 60 flashes / 2 min. Short term models have this first batch of convection exiting the area after 21z and then another line with the front coming through after 23z. Main threat of the day will be wet microbursts with some small hail possible. Not much shear in place at the moment so any kind of tornadic activity seems unlikely.
-Jason Bourne
Looking at a wide angle of 1-minute satellite data...a cold front can be seen pushing through Arkansas with the wind shift ahead of it approaching the Mississippi border. This line should be the focus of convection later this afternoon with a more linear structure as this is where the highest shear values are. Further east...storms firing are more instability driven at this time with almost 3000 J/kg of cape across the area. That being said...low level lapse rates are very strong but mid levels are very weak and storms are having a hard time gaining any height. With the freezing level around 11 kft...severe hail will be hard to get in this scenario.
Looking at storms on the radar now...a storm over north central Alabama has had a flash density of 60 flashes / 2 min. Short term models have this first batch of convection exiting the area after 21z and then another line with the front coming through after 23z. Main threat of the day will be wet microbursts with some small hail possible. Not much shear in place at the moment so any kind of tornadic activity seems unlikely.
-Jason Bourne
May 12, 2016: 1-min SAT imagery
Cells are rapidly firing across the OHX forecast area, as evident from this loop over the past 20 mins. One can see 4-5 cells rapidly developing with overshooting tops in the central and eastern portion of the forecast area.
-Yodamaster777
-Yodamaster777
Wednesday, May 11, 2016
Daily Summary: Week 4, Day 3 (11 May 2016)
For Wednesday, the groups began operations in the Fort Worth and Pueblo CWAs. It quickly became apparent that Pueblo activity would remain marginal, so that group moved to the Springfield CWA. With convection slow to develop in FWD, that group transitioned to the San Angelo CWA.
LAP
- It showed abundant isntability in central Texas. CAPE, LI, and PW were all on par with what we had expected.
- Looking at layer PW in Pueblo, there was an enhanced area of ll moisture in the SE corner of the state, but activity never made it there to tap into it.
CI
- CI values increase quickly before initiation.
- It was helpful in highlighting development along the outflow boundary, and where along the outflow convection would develop.
- Early on, there were low percentages where nothing happened, so did not see any false alarms.
- It hit on storms in the Midland area where we weren't really expecting any development.
- In Springfield, one cell popped up right on the boundary that eventually produced severe hail near St Louis. It had very high regular CI, and 70 severe CI.
- I noticed regular CI hitting on development south of Pueblo CWA.
ProbSevere
- Our one hail-maker in St Louis made it into the 90s. ProbSevere did well on that cell. Otherwise, we didn't see many storms go over 10, which was good since we didn't have any other severe.
- In Texas, I saw my first 100. Mesh was over 2" We issued a tornado warning on that storm.
SRSOR
- I wrote a blog post on the importance for forecasters to back up and look at the wider view, noting important features. As more OTs develop, one can visualize the linear structure across the region. One could see the evolution of boundaries and their interactions with each other. Inflow into storms from the south was apparent via the movement of low level clouds. While the initial outward expansion of teh anvil was in all directions, it backed up on one side due to the opposing mean flow at that level. Lots of waves were apparent. There are a lot of features and processes that you just cannot see with routine data.
- There was a mature storm with large anvil. New storms formed beneath the anvil along the outflow boundary. We could see the storms mature as they rose through the anvil.
- With a cell in Springfield, the updraft looked vigorous but then died quickly. We could see this in the 1-min imagery as it happened. The 1-min imagery has been helpful for rapidly developing storms, allowing you to see what is happening right away.
SRSOR winds
- In Springfield, as cu developed, winds were available at many levels, allowing us to analyze the presence of directional shear (winds were veering with height). South of our CWA, we saw low level convergence, but in our area, flow was uni-directional. That convergence never made it into Springfield, and the lack of low-level support is likely why convection did not develop.
- In San Angelo, convergence was apparent along the outflow via the satellite-derived wind field.
Lightning Jump
- With storms in Texas, a 3-sigma lightning jump helped me make my warning decision.
NUCAPS
- Pueblo is not an upper air site, so it was helpful there. IASI NUCAPS indicated only weak instability, which made sense given only weak convection/showers. Surface dew point and temperature were very accurate, perhaps because the atmosphere was so dry.
- In Texas, we used NUCAPS in our early analysis which proved to be helpful given sparce UA obs.
- NUCAPS had Wet Bulb Zero heights around 9000 ft, and FL around 12000 ft. Wit the kind o updrafts we had, I am not surprised we had such large hail.
LAP
- It showed abundant isntability in central Texas. CAPE, LI, and PW were all on par with what we had expected.
- Looking at layer PW in Pueblo, there was an enhanced area of ll moisture in the SE corner of the state, but activity never made it there to tap into it.
CI
- CI values increase quickly before initiation.
- It was helpful in highlighting development along the outflow boundary, and where along the outflow convection would develop.
- Early on, there were low percentages where nothing happened, so did not see any false alarms.
- It hit on storms in the Midland area where we weren't really expecting any development.
- In Springfield, one cell popped up right on the boundary that eventually produced severe hail near St Louis. It had very high regular CI, and 70 severe CI.
- I noticed regular CI hitting on development south of Pueblo CWA.
ProbSevere
- Our one hail-maker in St Louis made it into the 90s. ProbSevere did well on that cell. Otherwise, we didn't see many storms go over 10, which was good since we didn't have any other severe.
- In Texas, I saw my first 100. Mesh was over 2" We issued a tornado warning on that storm.
SRSOR
- I wrote a blog post on the importance for forecasters to back up and look at the wider view, noting important features. As more OTs develop, one can visualize the linear structure across the region. One could see the evolution of boundaries and their interactions with each other. Inflow into storms from the south was apparent via the movement of low level clouds. While the initial outward expansion of teh anvil was in all directions, it backed up on one side due to the opposing mean flow at that level. Lots of waves were apparent. There are a lot of features and processes that you just cannot see with routine data.
- There was a mature storm with large anvil. New storms formed beneath the anvil along the outflow boundary. We could see the storms mature as they rose through the anvil.
- With a cell in Springfield, the updraft looked vigorous but then died quickly. We could see this in the 1-min imagery as it happened. The 1-min imagery has been helpful for rapidly developing storms, allowing you to see what is happening right away.
SRSOR winds
- In Springfield, as cu developed, winds were available at many levels, allowing us to analyze the presence of directional shear (winds were veering with height). South of our CWA, we saw low level convergence, but in our area, flow was uni-directional. That convergence never made it into Springfield, and the lack of low-level support is likely why convection did not develop.
- In San Angelo, convergence was apparent along the outflow via the satellite-derived wind field.
Lightning Jump
- With storms in Texas, a 3-sigma lightning jump helped me make my warning decision.
NUCAPS
- Pueblo is not an upper air site, so it was helpful there. IASI NUCAPS indicated only weak instability, which made sense given only weak convection/showers. Surface dew point and temperature were very accurate, perhaps because the atmosphere was so dry.
- In Texas, we used NUCAPS in our early analysis which proved to be helpful given sparce UA obs.
- NUCAPS had Wet Bulb Zero heights around 9000 ft, and FL around 12000 ft. Wit the kind o updrafts we had, I am not surprised we had such large hail.
1 minute scan continues to show pure awsomeness, also a helpful forecasting tool.
Our monster supercell was a visual treat on the 1 minute satellite imagery. In the GIF attached, you can notice the anvil blowoff of the main storm being penetrated by new development.
Besides being eye candy, it allows forecasters to track explosive development of new storms. We had already warned for those storms, but the visualization helped to confirm the rapid intensification.
Wrap up 5/11 PUB, SGF
A bit of a double bust today as convection did not form in Pueblo or Springfield, MO areas today. Also a lot of data issues meant that lots of products were not available for extended amounts of time today. That being said the CI product redeemed itself today and it was the winner of the day as it performed very well in both CWAs and behaved as expected. Also atmospheric motion vectors performed well over the Springfield CWA and showed vertical directional shear just south of the CWA that never made it into the CWA but helped to illustrate where the better environment was. Once data came back in later in the day, we were able to compare LAP CAPE to rap analysis over the SGF cwa and it performed very well and matched up with our thinking very well. With a lack of storms in the area...special attention was paid to a wider angle view of the 1-minute imagery and the various features that it could see. An earlier post highlights the details but many features were discovered that are not usually apparent with the 15 minute imagery. Finally IASI soundings were very helpful in filling data gaps in the data sparse Pueblo area. The soundings seemed to perform very well in the higher terrain and did not need much modification in the lower levels. Not sure if this was because of the higher elevation or not. Will post that imagery below once again along with some of the highlight shots of the day. -Jason Bourne
1-minute Satellite Wide Angle View
Taking in a wide angle view of the system moving into the Ohio Valley many features can be tracked in the 1-minute imagery. The obvious are the overshooting tops in the LSX area. Putting the image in motion you can also see the linear structure from the IND cwa through the PAH cwa and back up into the LSX cwa. To the northwest you can see developing towers in the EAX cwa. The inflow into the strongest storms over LSX can be seen feeding into the storms from the south. Looking closely at the overshooting tops you can see the anvil being forced out by the storm in all directions but then being caught up in the mean upper level flow and carrying off to the north and northeast. In greater detail you can see what look like orphan overshooting tops blowing directly eastward out of the southern-most storm in LWX in what looks like some kind of microscale wave moving through the convection. The bottom line is that the details that can be obtained from the one minute data are showing us things that we have never seen before with 15 minute data. -Jason Bourne
1 Min Vis Shows Promising Cell Die
Not much going on in SGF CWA right now. One cell briefly appeared promising, with the CI Severe algorith showing nearly 70%. The ProbSevere algorithm also starting picking up on the cell (although it never really got all that high).
However, the 1 min visible satellite showed the rapid growth quickly ending and the cell basically fell apart not long after. Couldn't have seen this on the 15 min visible imagery. It looks like we just don't have enough shear to support anything other than pulse type storms today. -JP
However, the 1 min visible satellite showed the rapid growth quickly ending and the cell basically fell apart not long after. Couldn't have seen this on the 15 min visible imagery. It looks like we just don't have enough shear to support anything other than pulse type storms today. -JP
Example of Good CI from SGF
Below is an instance where CI did a good job of capturing some initiation in the Springfield, MO area.
Here we can see that the CI algorithm picked up on numerous cells over the SGF area. Two of those cells showed higher values of CI Severe. Looking at one minute satellite loop...these cells are the stronger ones in the loop. While they have not yet developed into severe storms...qualitatively they were stronger than the surrounding cells. The loop is below. -Jason Bourne
Tuesday, May 10, 2016
Daily Summary: Week 4, Day 2 (10 May 2016)
For the second day of week 4, our two groups operated in the Fort Worth/Dallas, TX and San Angelo, TX CWA's. Severe convection developed along the dryline across central Texas.
LAP
- CAPE values were slightly less than those from RAP, but I understand this because GFS was fairly low, which is used as the first guess in the retrievals. Although, RAP may have been high.
- The LAP CAPE gradient was right through our CWA. It was helpful to focus on the location and movement of this gradient, as convection developed right along it.
- Layer PW was helpful for identifying drying aloft. I thought with wind and hail, and TPW values being relatively low, this seemed correct.
- LAP LPW showed really dry air aloft. This was apparent in the RAOBs, and confirmed in LPW.
GOES-R CI
- It was not good yesterday in FWD. We didn't see any probabilities from severe or regular CI despite having cu develop and initiate into severe storms. There did not appear to be cirrus contamination.
- There were instances when severe CI was higher than regular CI
- In San Angelo, things were slow to get going. Early on, there were no probabilities until convection had already began to develop. Later in the day it was better. It keyed in on new development further south when we were focused on the ongoing convection to the north.
ProbSevere
- For the first storm of the day that got a warning yesterday, I was very confident that it was going to go severe. It looked good on radar with a strong reflectivity core. I put a warning on it despite probsevere being only 40-50%. After the warning, the storm weakened pretty quickly. Lightning and shear had both been low.
- Yesterday, if probabilities went over 80, I thought it had a good chance of going severe.
- I went liberal on one warning. Without ProbSevere I would have waited to warn. It definitely added lead time in that situation.
- Through using ProbSevere, I could see warning lead time going up, but also FAR rate increasing.
- Towards the end of the day yesterday, probsevere was in the 90s with a storm, but based on radar reflectivities, it appeared that the storm was weakening. Lightning flash rates were high at this time.
Lightning Jump
-Training needs to be improved for this, as I did not understand the LJ before using it yesterday
- I noticed a lot of fluctuations in LJ in a cell.
- It helped with my confidence, seeing jumps with the rapidly developing storms
- I liked using the 4-panel with ProbSevere and LJ together. The first time I used the two together, ProbSevere gave me more confidence in what I was seeing in radar, and LJ gave me confidence in what I was seeing in Probsevere. I liked this.
- I didn't feel like I needed to see a new lj to warn, but it added confidence.
- For me, it was more a a SA tool, alerting us to cells that we hadn't really been watching yet but needed to start keeping an eye on. It was an early indication that we need to look at the storm further.
- I actually liked the display, the blob really jumps out. We aren't really interrogating radar in that panel anyway, so it is fine that it gets covered up.
- I could see LJ being a confidence booster in pulse thunderstorm cases. Maybe not as much with a qlcs event dropping wind damage, when we know it is severe.
SRSOR
- With one storm I was watching, a storm split was obvious in the 1-min imagery much earlier than it was in the radar imagery.
- I could see the strengthening of the updraft and OT well in multiple supercells quicker than was apparent in radar.
- I enjoyed looking at IR imagery. The OTs as indicated by areas of very cold temperature were pretty brief, but the 1-min imagery was able to capture them. They weren't long-lived OTs, occuring in-between radar and routine satellite scans. So it was helpful to have this rapidly updating information.
- I could see the Overshooting Tops shoot up before strengthening in radar.
- With a cell that ended up being severe, you could see it forming along the outflow boundary before you could tell what was going on in radar.
- It was easy to see cu clouds feeding into the supercells
- It was informative to observe low clouds moving under the anvil, a depiction of deep layer shear.
SRSOR winds
- Early in the day and in the 18z radiosonde, there was not much shear. But later, the satellite-winds indicated strengthening westerly flow aloft.
- Helped to find areas of low-level convergence.
- The winds indicated convergence along a boundary ahead of the dryline. We did get enhanced cu development in this area. The winds alerted us to areas of concern.
- When upper-level winds came in with a storm anvil, we could see veering with height.
- This will be useful in extracting a pseudo wind profile, and monitoring layer wind shear.
NUCAPS
- Looking at the Plan view and cross section displays in FWD, I think these can be very helpful.
- Mixing ration plan view at 700 mb showed a nice gradient near the CWA boundary. Convection was dying as it crossed this gradient into the drier air.
- The highest mixing ration values were collocated with the storms in Mexico.
- The NUCAPS data is a great check on the models
- NUCAPS matched closely with the nearby Del Rio sounding in terms of CAPE and PW.
- It reinforced my understanding of the present thermodynamic environment.
- Prior to CI, I would look at NUCAPS while gauging the environment.
- If we do an 18Z sounding, then get NUCAPS a couple hours later, the temporal change would be helpful to see.
- I do not want to have to modify a NUCAPS sounding in the middle of warning operations.
- With the plan view, it was easy to pick out areas of bad data. So in this case, I would not want a model adjustment. But I would want an adjustment to the actual profile.
- I like the idea of not using model data for the low-level correction. I think it would be better to do whatever correction you can with available observations.
- Even without the 18Z sounding, I think NUCAPS would be helpful, assuming you have someone to modify the sounding. This would fill the gap of no 18Z special sounding.
- 130 PM timing for NUCAPS is perfect. It is right before CI usually.
-
LAP
- CAPE values were slightly less than those from RAP, but I understand this because GFS was fairly low, which is used as the first guess in the retrievals. Although, RAP may have been high.
- The LAP CAPE gradient was right through our CWA. It was helpful to focus on the location and movement of this gradient, as convection developed right along it.
- Layer PW was helpful for identifying drying aloft. I thought with wind and hail, and TPW values being relatively low, this seemed correct.
- LAP LPW showed really dry air aloft. This was apparent in the RAOBs, and confirmed in LPW.
GOES-R CI
- It was not good yesterday in FWD. We didn't see any probabilities from severe or regular CI despite having cu develop and initiate into severe storms. There did not appear to be cirrus contamination.
- There were instances when severe CI was higher than regular CI
- In San Angelo, things were slow to get going. Early on, there were no probabilities until convection had already began to develop. Later in the day it was better. It keyed in on new development further south when we were focused on the ongoing convection to the north.
ProbSevere
- For the first storm of the day that got a warning yesterday, I was very confident that it was going to go severe. It looked good on radar with a strong reflectivity core. I put a warning on it despite probsevere being only 40-50%. After the warning, the storm weakened pretty quickly. Lightning and shear had both been low.
- Yesterday, if probabilities went over 80, I thought it had a good chance of going severe.
- I went liberal on one warning. Without ProbSevere I would have waited to warn. It definitely added lead time in that situation.
- Through using ProbSevere, I could see warning lead time going up, but also FAR rate increasing.
- Towards the end of the day yesterday, probsevere was in the 90s with a storm, but based on radar reflectivities, it appeared that the storm was weakening. Lightning flash rates were high at this time.
Lightning Jump
-Training needs to be improved for this, as I did not understand the LJ before using it yesterday
- I noticed a lot of fluctuations in LJ in a cell.
- It helped with my confidence, seeing jumps with the rapidly developing storms
- I liked using the 4-panel with ProbSevere and LJ together. The first time I used the two together, ProbSevere gave me more confidence in what I was seeing in radar, and LJ gave me confidence in what I was seeing in Probsevere. I liked this.
- I didn't feel like I needed to see a new lj to warn, but it added confidence.
- For me, it was more a a SA tool, alerting us to cells that we hadn't really been watching yet but needed to start keeping an eye on. It was an early indication that we need to look at the storm further.
- I actually liked the display, the blob really jumps out. We aren't really interrogating radar in that panel anyway, so it is fine that it gets covered up.
- I could see LJ being a confidence booster in pulse thunderstorm cases. Maybe not as much with a qlcs event dropping wind damage, when we know it is severe.
SRSOR
- With one storm I was watching, a storm split was obvious in the 1-min imagery much earlier than it was in the radar imagery.
- I could see the strengthening of the updraft and OT well in multiple supercells quicker than was apparent in radar.
- I enjoyed looking at IR imagery. The OTs as indicated by areas of very cold temperature were pretty brief, but the 1-min imagery was able to capture them. They weren't long-lived OTs, occuring in-between radar and routine satellite scans. So it was helpful to have this rapidly updating information.
- I could see the Overshooting Tops shoot up before strengthening in radar.
- With a cell that ended up being severe, you could see it forming along the outflow boundary before you could tell what was going on in radar.
- It was easy to see cu clouds feeding into the supercells
- It was informative to observe low clouds moving under the anvil, a depiction of deep layer shear.
SRSOR winds
- Early in the day and in the 18z radiosonde, there was not much shear. But later, the satellite-winds indicated strengthening westerly flow aloft.
- Helped to find areas of low-level convergence.
- The winds indicated convergence along a boundary ahead of the dryline. We did get enhanced cu development in this area. The winds alerted us to areas of concern.
- When upper-level winds came in with a storm anvil, we could see veering with height.
- This will be useful in extracting a pseudo wind profile, and monitoring layer wind shear.
NUCAPS
- Looking at the Plan view and cross section displays in FWD, I think these can be very helpful.
- Mixing ration plan view at 700 mb showed a nice gradient near the CWA boundary. Convection was dying as it crossed this gradient into the drier air.
- The highest mixing ration values were collocated with the storms in Mexico.
- The NUCAPS data is a great check on the models
- NUCAPS matched closely with the nearby Del Rio sounding in terms of CAPE and PW.
- It reinforced my understanding of the present thermodynamic environment.
- Prior to CI, I would look at NUCAPS while gauging the environment.
- If we do an 18Z sounding, then get NUCAPS a couple hours later, the temporal change would be helpful to see.
- I do not want to have to modify a NUCAPS sounding in the middle of warning operations.
- With the plan view, it was easy to pick out areas of bad data. So in this case, I would not want a model adjustment. But I would want an adjustment to the actual profile.
- I like the idea of not using model data for the low-level correction. I think it would be better to do whatever correction you can with available observations.
- Even without the 18Z sounding, I think NUCAPS would be helpful, assuming you have someone to modify the sounding. This would fill the gap of no 18Z special sounding.
- 130 PM timing for NUCAPS is perfect. It is right before CI usually.
-
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