Strong tornadoes in the Deep South

A seasonally strong shortwave trough tapped into abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture forcing severe and tornadic storms across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Moderate Risk outlook with tornadoes and strong wind gusts being the primary threats (see Figure 1).

Fig. 1: SPC outlook with 06Z 12/17 verification (dots).

ProbSevere/ProbTor models show the evolution of storms throughout the afternoon (Figure 2). The outer contours represent the ProbTor probability and are only present if ProbTor is ≥ 15%, here.

This environment was characterized by 1000 - 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, 45-60 kts of effective bulk shear, and 1-3km AGL mean wind of 40-55 kts. The ProbSevere models generally track and discern the most dangerous threats well (see the NWS warning polygons). However, there are several storms with erroneously high ProbTor values (outer polygons with high probabilities) that quickly appear and disappear during the animation. Most of these false alarms are due to spurious MRMS azimuthal shear values which are produced by noisy Doppler velocity data. Work is ongoing to mitigate these errors in ProbTor.

Fig. 2: ProbSevere and ProbTor contours, MRMS MergedReflectivity, and NWS severe weather warnings.

A storm that formed in east Texas/west Louisiana spawned numerous tornadoes and prompted a tornado emergency for Alexandria, LA at 18:41 UTC. This storm was in a primed thermodynamic and kinematic environment, with 250-300 J/kg of 0-1km storm-relative helicity. The low-level and mid-level MRMS azimuthal shear values increased the ProbTor probabilities from 30% to 91% in about 20 minutes. You can see the saved time series of attributes for this storm here. Figure 3 shows how the ProbSevere products evolved for this storm in comparison to NWS severe weather warnings and local storm reports.

Fig. 3: Time series of ProbSevere probabilities for tornadic storm in Louisiana. The bottom axis plots durations for NWS severe weather warnings and times of preliminary LSRs.

At least one this this storm's tornadoes was expected to be rated as significant (EF3+).

Jefferson City tornado

A violent tornado hit the capital of Missouri last night at around 11:20pm local time. ProbTor showed rapid increases as well as some large fluctuations in probability prior to and during the tornado. After leaving Jefferson City, the storm continued to be warned and ProbTor again increased to probabilities ≥ 60% for about an hour; no reports of any kind were recorded during this time, however. You can see the archived time series of probabilities and predictors here.

Figure 1: Time series of ProbSevere products with NWS warnings and LSRs.

Figure 2: ProbSevere with MRMS MergedRef and NWS warnings in AWIPS2