Jefferson City tornado

A violent tornado hit the capital of Missouri last night at around 11:20pm local time. ProbTor showed rapid increases as well as some large fluctuations in probability prior to and during the tornado. After leaving Jefferson City, the storm continued to be warned and ProbTor again increased to probabilities ≥ 60% for about an hour; no reports of any kind were recorded during this time, however. You can see the archived time series of probabilities and predictors here.

Figure 1: Time series of ProbSevere products with NWS warnings and LSRs.

Figure 2: ProbSevere with MRMS MergedRef and NWS warnings in AWIPS2