Here is another example---this time in western Wisconsin---where LightningCast v2 (LCv2) outperforms LCv1. The models are trained to predict the probability of next-hour lightning, with LCv1 using ABI inputs and LCv2 using ABI and MRMS inputs.
There is thick ice obscuration from an anvil could blow-off entering western Wisconsin, south of La Crosse. Both models had about 10% probability of lightning 20 minutes prior to the first flashes (not shown). Fifteen minutes prior to the first flash, LCv2 shot up to 50% probability of lightning, whereas LCv1 hovered near 10% (top row, Figure 1). LCv1 exceeded 50% 5 minutes prior to the first flash produced by the multi-celled convection (not shown).
The MRMS Reflectivity -10C in LCv2 (Figure 2), which observed 35-dBZ pixels in the convection, together with ABI signatures (e.g., cold cloud tops, nearby boundary layer cumulus) was able to provide an additional 10 minutes of lead time to the first flashes compared to the ABI-only LCv1 model.
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| Figure 1: Top panel: LCv2 (left) and LCv1 (right) contours for 6/16/2025 13:31 UTC. Bottom panel: LCv2 (left) and LCv1 (right) contours for 6/16/2025 13:46 UTC. Background on all panels is the GOES-19 ABI day-cloud-phase-distinction RGB, while the foreground blue pixels are GOES-19 GLM flash-extent density. |
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| Figure 2: MRMS Reflectivity at -10C over the nexus of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin at 13:32 UTC. |