Cool air aloft provided good mid-level lapse rates (~ 7 C/km) and associated instability for storms to tap into, coupled with decent low-level lapse rates.
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| SPC's objective analysis of mid-level lapse rates. |
The environment was characterized by ~1500-1900 J/kg of MUCAPE and ~15 kts of effective bulk shear. The AWIPS-II scroll-over readout of the NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model contours showed that these storms had strong normalized growth rates and glaciation rates, two or more hours prior. Development on radar lagged the strong growth observed from satellite, in this case. Storms developed MRMS MESH values of 0.7 to 1.15". The MESH, coupled with the satellite and environment information yielded probabilities of severe in the 60-90% range. These storms highlighted below were warned 15-25 minutes after ProbSevere exceeded 50%. The storms in Portage and Barron counties produced 1" hail, while the storms in Burnett and Clark counties had no reported hail.
While radar is the most valuable stand-alone tool for severe storm analysis, this case highlights the use of the satellite growth rates in the fused product to enhance confidence and lead-time to severe hail.
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| ProbSevere contours overlaid MRMS Composite Reflectivity and GOES-East visible imagery. |
John Cintineo
UW-CIMSS