Week 2, day 4

Final day of operations for week 2.  To begin the day, we placed the forecaster pairs in two completely different environments.  One group, starts in North Platte, NE where we have a high potential for severe weather a bit later.  The second group begins in the Raleigh, NC where a line of storms are moving in from the west into a region of increased instability.  It will be interesting to see how the various GOES-E (16) channels and derived products are able to pick up on differences in the environments and storm behavior.

SPC day 1 outlook for 10 May 2018

CAPE axis extending into North Platte, NE at the start of operations on 10 May 2018. 

Line of marginally severe storms moving into western NC and across VA at the start of operations on 10 May 2018. 

Week 2; Day 3

Slightly improved outlook for severe weather today as we move to the midwest US.  We begin today with forecasters located in the Chicago (LOT) and northern Indiana (IWX).

We are expecting redevelopment of isolated storms across the region this afternoon first over LOT and then moving eastward into IWX.  17Z run of the HRRR somewhat picks up on this redevelopment between 2100 and 0000 UTC, though storms appear to remain sub-severe.

Meanwhile, forecasters are currently implementing some new procedures for NuCAPS and comparing legacy vs test product streams in the pre-convective environment.  We will see how things evolve over our region as the day progresses.

-Kristin

Week 2; Day 2

We begin day 2 in the DMX (Des Moines, IA and FSD (Sioux Falls, SD) region.  Some convection is still in place associated with an overnight MCS that propagated across South Dakota and into MN and northern IA.  CG lightning (3-5 flashes per min) is still associated with this system, but overall convection in the area currently remains sub-severe.

Additionally, calibration and testing for the EXIS system for GOES-16 is ongoing today (May 8- May 11).  We are told this may cause some false alarms in the GLM, but it appears the Level 2 -Lightning Flash Clustering Algorithm (LFCA) data stopped at 1723 UTC and has not restarted.  We are hopeful it will resume, but remain unsure to when...

-Kristin Calhoun

HWT 2018: Week 2, day 1: BYZ & UNR

As we get the ball rolling on week 2, the weather takes us further northwest -- Billings, MT and Rapid City, SD.  The forecasters are currently setting up and getting familiar with the variety of GOES and JPSS products available to them. 

Initial outlook for today is not very exciting for those in search of severe weather.

There is a decent chance for severe weather associated with and ahead of the short wave moving through Montana and across South Dakota later today.  Unfortunately, much of this may occur at or after we end operations for the day.

Currently, small storms with some lightning are ongoing in central and southern Montana and a small field of Cu is developing in western South Dakota.

30-min of GOES-16 VIS (ch. 2, 5-min update) and GLM Total Energy (5 min-summation, updating every min).

For day 1, however, the goals for the forecasters are primarily to get acquainted with the variety of products available and begin building AWIPSII procedures they will be able to incorporate throughout the week. Hopefully, we will see a wider variety of severe weather as the week continues.

-Kristin Calhoun
Week 2 Coordinator
GLM Science Lead