Today marks the end of 4 weeks of operations in the EWP. Today we had the opportunity to debrief the forecasters on their experience here over the past week.
SATCAST / UW Cloud-top Cooling
- Yesterday's event over Boulder CWA... "We did try to warn on the CTC a couple times with ongoing severe to the north, the first storm quickly disappeared, but the second one was successful... we did get 1.5" hail out of it."
- "I can definitely see the utility of the products in focusing your attention on what is developing."
- "There were a couple instances where the SATCAST would have a lot of 'confetti', but there weren't any really strong signals... it really showed the utility of having the strength of signal instead of a yes/no."
- "The probabilities for the SATCAST did seem to match up with the overall occurrence of CI."
- "I may have only seen one case this whole week where the -20 C /15 mins signal in the CTC had any severe after it... I think there could be more work done to fine tune those values." - There seems to be some environmental dependance that could be playing a role in how successful the threshold values are in relating to severe weather... It has performed well over past weeks, but in some situations (like the past couple days) the occurrence of severe after a strong cooling rate may be less common.
- "I really liked that 'Ultimate-CI' 4-panel you guys had... that was nice... I would steal that."
Simulated Satellite
- "I found that the placement of convection was really good... the biggest weakness was the timing and the coverage of the storms... I see this as a 'top of the pyramid' product where I will start to get an idea of what's going on over my CWA."
- "It also picked up on the non-convective stuff (jet streaks/shortwaves) really well with the WV."
- "It would be great to get this in GFE."
- "I looked at the band difference, but I didn't really see the utility of it... granted I was more focused on the IR and WV which was more intuitive to me."
- "When we got set up, there was almost always stuff on radar, so we didn't really have much of a use for it."
Nearcast
- "I used it both as a forecast tool and an analysis tool."
- "A lot of the time this week the clouds were just too thick and made it hard to use."
- "I put the OUN WRF reflectivity on one panel with the CAPE and Theta-e products... the convection followed the CAPE/theta-e areas well... it was an interesting way to display it."
- "It was nice that you could use the GOES-E and GOES-W and overlap them to give you the complete picture... the values were a little different where they overlapped, but it still gave you a good picture."
- "It would probably be more useful in the early afternoon."
Sounder Airmass RGB
- "We ingest the other NASA sport RGB products and the color tables were so different for the airmass product that I got a little confused." - They were referring to the MODIS version of the RGB airmass, which does have some different color aspects.
- "I did look at it once and it did pick up on a lot of the larger scale features very well."
PGLM
- Yesterday's event over Sterling CWA... Had a lot of trouble with sensors failing over DCLMA and causing serious detection efficiency issues.
- "Like I said the other day... 5- and 15-minute composites would be great in addition to the 1-minute data."
- "The color curve was a little hard to see, especially for the lower flash amounts."
- "Lightning jumps aren't easily seen in the 2D gridded display... especially at 8km."
- "It would be really cool to see this over smoke plumes... we have seen some CG strikes from smoke plumes before."
Overall / Training
- It was reiterated that for some of these limited coverage datasets (ie - PGLM), it would be nice to have a map of the coverage.
- "The biggest negative was the satellite outage issue... it always seemed to happen right when everything happened." - 1800 and 2100 UTC are prime times for convection... and are also when 30-minute full disk scans occur.
- "Winds an turbulence are our biggest threats (CWSU aviation)... especially relating to non-convective weather and they are hard to pick up on with radar data alone."
- "I thought the change to having a training shift before you arrive was a great idea... it was overall very smooth."
- "I definitely felt more comfortable finding the products yesterday than I did day 1... It might be helpful to just sit down for an hour or two with someone and load the products."
- "Having procedures for the products really helped."
- "Having everything in AWIPS II was fantastic... we really got some good hands on experience with how the products will be used in the future."
- "I really liked the discussions with the developers... it really helped us understand how the products worked."
- "Having a level of uncertainty or confidence displayed within the products is very useful."
Showing posts with label Simulated Band Difference. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Simulated Band Difference. Show all posts
Friday, June 8, 2012
Thursday, June 7, 2012
BOU: Another busy day for Traffic Management folks!
Forecaster comments from EWP blog...
Another day…same problem…convection firing up in the vicinity of some major jet routes and arrival gates in the DEN airspace. That means traffic headaches not only for controllers in Denver air space…but for people in ZKC, ZFW, ZAB…etc. You get the idea.
Once again, I’m able to test out the Sim Sat products. Already some activity firing up along the front range….but had I come in at 0530 (for a normal shift), I could have used the Sim Sat products to provide TMU with some good information for their planning purposes. Figure 1, below, illustrates the 19z Sim Sat compared to the 19z IR (lower left). You can see that the Sim Sat products have under-forecast the convection – one of the major limitations of the tool. However – the general location and trends are highlighted very well. With the exception of the development over BOU.
Another day…same problem…convection firing up in the vicinity of some major jet routes and arrival gates in the DEN airspace. That means traffic headaches not only for controllers in Denver air space…but for people in ZKC, ZFW, ZAB…etc. You get the idea.
Once again, I’m able to test out the Sim Sat products. Already some activity firing up along the front range….but had I come in at 0530 (for a normal shift), I could have used the Sim Sat products to provide TMU with some good information for their planning purposes. Figure 1, below, illustrates the 19z Sim Sat compared to the 19z IR (lower left). You can see that the Sim Sat products have under-forecast the convection – one of the major limitations of the tool. However – the general location and trends are highlighted very well. With the exception of the development over BOU.
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
CYS: Severe storms now popping…and the SimSat products pretty much nailed it
Forecaster comments from EWP blog...
Starting to issue some warnings now in the CYS CWA for some brewing supercells. Took a moment to reevaluate the simulated satellite products. Note in particular the top two panels…the simsat is on the left, the actual GOES IR image is on the right. The model did an excellent job in generating convection in southeast Wyoming. The timing was maybe a touch off, but this is certainly acceptable for such a highly detailed guidance product which ran the previous night!
Starting to issue some warnings now in the CYS CWA for some brewing supercells. Took a moment to reevaluate the simulated satellite products. Note in particular the top two panels…the simsat is on the left, the actual GOES IR image is on the right. The model did an excellent job in generating convection in southeast Wyoming. The timing was maybe a touch off, but this is certainly acceptable for such a highly detailed guidance product which ran the previous night!
CYS: Convective Initiation and Impacts to Aviation
Forecaster comments from EWP blog...
Today is a great opportunity to test the Simulated Satellite products! I created a 4 panel to compare the sim sat products with the real time IR. I also overlaid jet routes to get a better picture of the potential impacts to aviation. One downfall to using the jet route overlay in AWIPS is that unless you’re familiar with the routes, you have no idea what you’re looking at. Maybe some day we can get a mouse-over feature with the jet routes so that the user can identify the names of the jet routes.
Figure 1 is the 4 panel comparison of the simulated products and real time IR. Figure 2 is the simulated IR and water vapor with jet routes overlaid. You can see that at 22Z, should the forecast be right, that re-routs will definitely be in order! I am eager to see how accurate this product is today…this could mean great things for the CWSU/FAA folks! Figure 3 is just a zoomed in 22z Sim Sat WV forecast.
The image in the lower right is the 10.4-12.3um IR which can help to show areas of low level moisture (yellow). As the column continues to moisten, you’ll see the areas of blue develop. Blue areas indicate a difference of zero.
Stay tuned to see how well the Simulated Satellite products work out!
Today is a great opportunity to test the Simulated Satellite products! I created a 4 panel to compare the sim sat products with the real time IR. I also overlaid jet routes to get a better picture of the potential impacts to aviation. One downfall to using the jet route overlay in AWIPS is that unless you’re familiar with the routes, you have no idea what you’re looking at. Maybe some day we can get a mouse-over feature with the jet routes so that the user can identify the names of the jet routes.
Figure 1: SimSat Compare with Real Time IR (lower left)
Figure 1 is the 4 panel comparison of the simulated products and real time IR. Figure 2 is the simulated IR and water vapor with jet routes overlaid. You can see that at 22Z, should the forecast be right, that re-routs will definitely be in order! I am eager to see how accurate this product is today…this could mean great things for the CWSU/FAA folks! Figure 3 is just a zoomed in 22z Sim Sat WV forecast.
Figure 2: 22z SimSat Forecast
The image in the lower right is the 10.4-12.3um IR which can help to show areas of low level moisture (yellow). As the column continues to moisten, you’ll see the areas of blue develop. Blue areas indicate a difference of zero.
Figure 3: Convective Initiation Forecast and BOU Impacts
Stay tuned to see how well the Simulated Satellite products work out!
Friday, May 25, 2012
EWP end of week 3 debrief
Well it's halfway through the experiment and we once again got a chance to sit down with the forecasters and pick their brains about their experience over the past week. We got a lot of really good blog posts this week from the forecasters, but we wanted to ask them some more product specific questions. Below is the feedback we captured...
SATCAST / UW Cloud-top Cooling
- Forecasters asked if they could get the CI products via LDM... we said yes, but they will have to ask the regions to get it. UAH CI is already being delivered to southern region, UWCI is also available via LDM to a few regions... both products are also available on the web (see this blog post).
- Is this product still useful in pulse type non-severe storms? "Yes, absolutely... as long as there is no cirrus contaminating."
- "The probabilistic CI will be really useful for aviation purposes since we're not looking at just severe convection."
- "There were some times when using both products at the same time became confusing because the CI would show low probabilities, but the CTC would show some strong signals." ... This is an effect of the products being completely independent of each other.
- "I definitely think running both together provides the most information for us... my biggest observation was that when the CI switched to night time mode, maybe put a threshold on the lower signals to cut out on some of the amount of signals."
- "There were some good cases where the CI would switch from 60% to 80% and then the CTC would flag the storm and we would get some good lead time on the first lightning strike... it was nice to have it all work in tandem."
- "Every storm that went severe yesterday in MO had a -30 C/15 min and every signal that strong lead to a severe storm, so it was a complete success."
- "I did play around with the color table to make it look more like radar and used it a bit, but realized that I didn't really like it... the standard color table worked really well."
Nearcast
- "That was my favorite product... it really seemed to capture the motion of the atmosphere than any of the products we had been looking at."
- "I really liked the 500 mb theta-e product... it really had a clear picture of the gradient of moisture and showed a strong push of cooler/dryer air where storms did not end up forming."
- "It really picked up on an area SE of Denver where the instability was strongest and identified the region where storms formed."
- "It seems like the colors were a little flipped, with the more unstable being the cooler colors... as a forecaster I want to see the warmer colors identify regions I should be paying attention to... red means bad in our field."
- "I'm wondering what this is going to look like in the west when the levels aren't as applicable... are they thinking about adding more levels?" ... Yes
Simulated Satellite
- "The simulated satellite picked up on some of the isolated storms pretty well all week, but the more organized things like cold fronts or the tropical system did not do so well." ... This is more of an issue of the model, not the simulated satellite imagery itself and seems to be a feature of this week only... may be due to the fact that there was some significant capping over much of the US.
- What did you think of using this versus other model fields? "It's really useful, we have to do sky fields in GFE and it would be very helpful to get this in GFE." ... Dan Lindsey volunteered to do this and was given a contact to do so.
- "The low bias in extent of high/anvil clouds was very apparent... is there any effort to fix that, but still keep the ability to keep low cloud info from the model? I think it might be useful to have two separate products, one for the regular imagery and one for low clouds."
- "If you could code the low clouds generated in a IFR, VFR, MIFR, MVFR color table, that would be incredibly useful for aviation." ... This may be more of a suggestion for the low cloud/fog product.
- "It would be nice to have more model runs of this." ... It would be hard to do so because of the computational requirements.
- We mentioned to the forecasters that this product is available via LDM and the forecasters were encouraged to contact Dan Lindsey to get the process started... it is also available on the web (see this blog post).
- "We did notice that the simulated WV was much dryer than the observed." ... This is because the band being simulated is different than the one that is available on current GOES and sees slightly lower in the atmosphere.
- "I stumbled on the band difference and I basically said, 'I don't know what this stuff is' so I backed off." ... This suggests more work needs to be done with forecasters on basic satellite topics like band differences, weighting functions and radiative transfer... a short description was understood very well, so it's not a complexity issue, it's more of a lack of required training.
- "I was using the band difference yesterday to pick out the dry line over much of OK... it was a little difficult to see because of the low clouds over the area."
Sounder Airmass
- "I looked at it twice... it was interesting to see the initiation occurred along the sharp moisture gradients that were associated with the strong shortwave troughs... as well as being very useful for picking out the jet maximum... I really love this product."
PGLM
- Unfortunately another miss this week... no significant weather within range of the LMAs.
Overall / Training
- "When stuff begins firing... I switch away from the models."
- "Any extra lead time you can give on training materials is beneficial... It can be difficult to try and weave that in to your operational shift schedule... It did take more than one day to get through all the material... I had to go through some of the material twice before I got a real grasp on it."
- "The WES was very useful to just play around with the data... the job sheets were helpful, but I just liked playing around with the data."
- "If we came in the first day and tried to cover all this material I would have been totally overwhelmed."
- "Can you condense the presentations? Get right to the point and be concise... you can provide additional written background material that we can go over later."
- "Keeping stuff off a required NOAA domain would help so I could access it at home."
- "I found that I was spending a lot of time the first two days just trying to find the products... anything you can do to have procedures ready would be very helpful." ... This is difficult since we localize over anywhere in the US, so procedures built for one localization will not work for another.
- "If you can be more upfront and tell us 'You should be looking at this product now' would help us not miss things we should be seeing... don't be afraid to interrupt us." ... Maybe have the PIs running a separate workstation and have their displays up on the Situational Awareness Display would help.
SATCAST / UW Cloud-top Cooling
- Forecasters asked if they could get the CI products via LDM... we said yes, but they will have to ask the regions to get it. UAH CI is already being delivered to southern region, UWCI is also available via LDM to a few regions... both products are also available on the web (see this blog post).
- Is this product still useful in pulse type non-severe storms? "Yes, absolutely... as long as there is no cirrus contaminating."
- "The probabilistic CI will be really useful for aviation purposes since we're not looking at just severe convection."
- "There were some times when using both products at the same time became confusing because the CI would show low probabilities, but the CTC would show some strong signals." ... This is an effect of the products being completely independent of each other.
- "I definitely think running both together provides the most information for us... my biggest observation was that when the CI switched to night time mode, maybe put a threshold on the lower signals to cut out on some of the amount of signals."
- "There were some good cases where the CI would switch from 60% to 80% and then the CTC would flag the storm and we would get some good lead time on the first lightning strike... it was nice to have it all work in tandem."
- "Every storm that went severe yesterday in MO had a -30 C/15 min and every signal that strong lead to a severe storm, so it was a complete success."
- "I did play around with the color table to make it look more like radar and used it a bit, but realized that I didn't really like it... the standard color table worked really well."
Nearcast
- "That was my favorite product... it really seemed to capture the motion of the atmosphere than any of the products we had been looking at."
- "I really liked the 500 mb theta-e product... it really had a clear picture of the gradient of moisture and showed a strong push of cooler/dryer air where storms did not end up forming."
- "It really picked up on an area SE of Denver where the instability was strongest and identified the region where storms formed."
- "It seems like the colors were a little flipped, with the more unstable being the cooler colors... as a forecaster I want to see the warmer colors identify regions I should be paying attention to... red means bad in our field."
- "I'm wondering what this is going to look like in the west when the levels aren't as applicable... are they thinking about adding more levels?" ... Yes
Simulated Satellite
- "The simulated satellite picked up on some of the isolated storms pretty well all week, but the more organized things like cold fronts or the tropical system did not do so well." ... This is more of an issue of the model, not the simulated satellite imagery itself and seems to be a feature of this week only... may be due to the fact that there was some significant capping over much of the US.
- What did you think of using this versus other model fields? "It's really useful, we have to do sky fields in GFE and it would be very helpful to get this in GFE." ... Dan Lindsey volunteered to do this and was given a contact to do so.
- "The low bias in extent of high/anvil clouds was very apparent... is there any effort to fix that, but still keep the ability to keep low cloud info from the model? I think it might be useful to have two separate products, one for the regular imagery and one for low clouds."
- "If you could code the low clouds generated in a IFR, VFR, MIFR, MVFR color table, that would be incredibly useful for aviation." ... This may be more of a suggestion for the low cloud/fog product.
- "It would be nice to have more model runs of this." ... It would be hard to do so because of the computational requirements.
- We mentioned to the forecasters that this product is available via LDM and the forecasters were encouraged to contact Dan Lindsey to get the process started... it is also available on the web (see this blog post).
- "We did notice that the simulated WV was much dryer than the observed." ... This is because the band being simulated is different than the one that is available on current GOES and sees slightly lower in the atmosphere.
- "I stumbled on the band difference and I basically said, 'I don't know what this stuff is' so I backed off." ... This suggests more work needs to be done with forecasters on basic satellite topics like band differences, weighting functions and radiative transfer... a short description was understood very well, so it's not a complexity issue, it's more of a lack of required training.
- "I was using the band difference yesterday to pick out the dry line over much of OK... it was a little difficult to see because of the low clouds over the area."
Sounder Airmass
- "I looked at it twice... it was interesting to see the initiation occurred along the sharp moisture gradients that were associated with the strong shortwave troughs... as well as being very useful for picking out the jet maximum... I really love this product."
PGLM
- Unfortunately another miss this week... no significant weather within range of the LMAs.
Overall / Training
- "When stuff begins firing... I switch away from the models."
- "Any extra lead time you can give on training materials is beneficial... It can be difficult to try and weave that in to your operational shift schedule... It did take more than one day to get through all the material... I had to go through some of the material twice before I got a real grasp on it."
- "The WES was very useful to just play around with the data... the job sheets were helpful, but I just liked playing around with the data."
- "If we came in the first day and tried to cover all this material I would have been totally overwhelmed."
- "Can you condense the presentations? Get right to the point and be concise... you can provide additional written background material that we can go over later."
- "Keeping stuff off a required NOAA domain would help so I could access it at home."
- "I found that I was spending a lot of time the first two days just trying to find the products... anything you can do to have procedures ready would be very helpful." ... This is difficult since we localize over anywhere in the US, so procedures built for one localization will not work for another.
- "If you can be more upfront and tell us 'You should be looking at this product now' would help us not miss things we should be seeing... don't be afraid to interrupt us." ... Maybe have the PIs running a separate workstation and have their displays up on the Situational Awareness Display would help.
Web links for products
There have been a lot of requests by the forecasters for the websites for the products being demonstrated... below is a comprehensive list for future reference.
SATCAST
http://nsstc.uah.edu/~jwalker/UAH_SATCASTv2_CI_VIS.png (most recent)
http://nsstc.uah.edu/~jwalker/UAH_SATCASTv2_CI_VIS_m1.png (minus 1)
http://nsstc.uah.edu/~jwalker/UAH_SATCASTv2_CI_VIS_m2.png (minus 2)
http://nsstc.uah.edu/~jwalker/UAH_SATCASTv2_CI_VIS_m3.png (minus 3)
http://nsstc.uah.edu/~jwalker/UAH_SATCASTv2_CI_VIS_m4.png (minus 4)
UWCI
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/snaap/convinit/quicklooks/
Nearcast
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/model/nrc/
Simulated Satellite Imagery / Band Difference
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/proving-ground/nssl_abi/nssl_abi_rt_js.html (imagery)
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-r_proving_ground.asp#Synthetic_GOES-R_Imagery_from_Real-Time_NSSL_4_km_WRF-ARW (imagery/band differences)
Sounder Airmass
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-r_proving_ground.asp#GOES_Sounder-Based_Products
SATCAST
http://nsstc.uah.edu/~jwalker/UAH_SATCASTv2_CI_VIS.png (most recent)
http://nsstc.uah.edu/~jwalker/UAH_SATCASTv2_CI_VIS_m1.png (minus 1)
http://nsstc.uah.edu/~jwalker/UAH_SATCASTv2_CI_VIS_m2.png (minus 2)
http://nsstc.uah.edu/~jwalker/UAH_SATCASTv2_CI_VIS_m3.png (minus 3)
http://nsstc.uah.edu/~jwalker/UAH_SATCASTv2_CI_VIS_m4.png (minus 4)
UWCI
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/snaap/convinit/quicklooks/
Nearcast
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/model/nrc/
Simulated Satellite Imagery / Band Difference
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/proving-ground/nssl_abi/nssl_abi_rt_js.html (imagery)
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-r_proving_ground.asp#Synthetic_GOES-R_Imagery_from_Real-Time_NSSL_4_km_WRF-ARW (imagery/band differences)
Sounder Airmass
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-r_proving_ground.asp#GOES_Sounder-Based_Products
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Sea breeze along W-coast of Florida
Forecaster comments from EWP blog...
The synthetic IR/WV forecast did a good job in placing strongest
activity over Florida along the W coast, where eastward moving sea
breeze probably caused strongest convergence in easterly wind regime.
Pulsating storms featured reflectivity peaks in excess of 50 dBz.
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Simulated Split Window Difference
On Wednesday 5/23, the NSSL-WRF simulated 10.35-12.3 micrometer product showed a local maximum across central Kansas at 21 UTC (see below; the maximum is oriented southwest to northeast and has values approaching +8 K). This maximum is due to water vapor pooling along the surface cold front in the area, and it preceded convective cloud development along that line. When real GOES-R data is available, this product will be very useful for forecasters who are interested in the regions where convective clouds, and eventually storms, are likely to form.
Friday, May 11, 2012
EWP end of week 1 debrief
Prior to our "Tales from the Testbed" webinar that begins at noon, we had the opportunity to sit down with the visiting forecasters and discuss their experiences over the past week regarding individual products and overall training/demonstration effectiveness.
SATCAST / UW Cloud-top Cooling
- "We were looking at the CI/CTC quite often and there were some areas that were quite ahead of time where enhanced updraft potential was taking place." (Thursday's event)
- "We saw a lot of the SATCAST along the boundary, but not as much of the CTC... which did make sense because we did see a lot of enhanced cu, but not a lot of really strong storms." (Thursday's event)
- "It (SATCAST) really helped to focus in on the area with the lower probability threshold and then once it transitioned into 50 or above, that's when the strong storms started to develop... very consistently too."
- "I never felt like during the experiment that it (SATCAST) was giving me too much information, like too many false alarms or anything... the strength of signal really helped correspond to what was happening."
- "It (SATCAST) was a great move to go with the strength of signal... it provided information instead of the yes or no... you can compare it to your level of confidence in terms of development."
- "It was definitely important to stress to look at the environment first with these products, especially with the SATCAST product which helped me handle any false alarms."
- "It was nice to match up the CTC with things like the 3D-VAR updraft strength."
- "I only say one high confidence false alarm over the whole week... other than that, when you saw red, you could count on it seeing 30 dBZ or higher." (SATCAST)
- Would you like to see a completely data-fused product with model data or would it be helpful to provide the product by itself as well? "If you could provide both, that would be really useful because sometimes the model is completely wrong."
- Any other potential uses for this (SATCAST) product? "Boundary identifier definitely... you can really pick out areas where instability is increasing."
- "With the CTC, the storm was generally already ongoing... we could use the two products to somehow put an initial lower probability."
- Would you like to see any big changes in the SATCAST product? "I would like to see some studies done on the threshold on the signal strengths." "I would like to see a readout of the background fields."
- "It (CI) enhances the total observations network... I would like to play with it some more."
- Did you like the color scheme for SATCAST? "I liked it... it worked great."
- "I love that product (CTC)... yeah you can look at the IR imagery and figure it out, but why do that extra work... have the algorithm do it for you. It really helped as a situational awareness tool."
- "I issued a warning on the CTC... obviously you have be aware of the situation and the environment."
- Was it obvious every time it happened? "I think it was enough, you could overlay it on visible or radar and then use the accumulated to get a longer picture of what has happened."
- "I'd like to see a longer accumulation product (CTC)... sometimes it was a much longer period between the initial growth before it became strong."
- "Maybe an alarm of a CTC threshold like -10 or -20 C/15 min would be useful."
Nearcast
- "It was picking up a surge of theta-e that was over the eastern-most counties over our CWA, which pointed out an area of enhanced tornadic threat later in the day." (Thursday's event)
- "Near storm environment... specifically the theta-e difference product... you can see the instability extending all the way off shore... you could tell that storm would keep going and going."
- A lot of the time you would have missing data, but specifically with the isolated storms you could really get an idea of where the instability would be."
- "Useful in finding the cold front and relatively stable air... you could see the cold airmass moving in."
- "If there weren't clouds moving in... I wonder if we would have seen cooler more stable air moving in at the 500mb level that would have suppressed convection. It would have been nice to use the different levels more often, but there was a lot going on."
- "We added the synthetic IR to the 4-panel with the nearcast theta-a difference and levels to get an overall picture of what could evolve."
- "Instead of seeing the holes from cloud cover... maybe you could add in some model data to fill the gaps."
Simulated Satellite
- "The simulated imagery really helped depict boundaries where storms would form, and also had a good handle on the mode of the convection." (Thursday's event)
- "Maintaining situational awareness, getting the impression that the short wave was moving in and the moisture coming in to the area, it was great to see how the environment was changing."
- "Potential for convective initiation was brought out... makes those spots look hot on a quick large scale glance"
- "I can easily compare WRF IR to observed IR... it was really simple to do."
Overall / Training
- "Between the satellite stuff and the 3D-VAR, you're really getting a good start on warn-on-forecast... putting it all together would really be very useful."
- "I really felt like I was a warning forecaster during the event... and that is key to a good experiment."
- "The cheat sheets you made for each of the products, how to load them and use them, were really useful."
- A few of the forecasters have asked us to provide them with either a website or some way to bring some of the products into their operations... specifically the simulated satellite imagery and band differences data, as well as the SATCAST and UW cloud-top cooling products. POC information will be provided to the forecasters for each of the products within an end of the week thank you email.
- "Having the forecasters blog really helps you all see if we are 'getting it'."
- How much should we interrupt you during operations? Could you have used more conversation from the PIs? "I thought it was perfect"
- "Not having the pressure to have to 'catch every warning' and having the freedom to test things was very useful in getting some quality feedback."
- "The addition of the extra day on Monday was very helpful in setting up a rhythm."
- Was the pace of the training good? Was it too much? "I thought it was fine... you covered all the products." "I think it's important to emphasize the first training shift at the WFO to come in up to speed... the more emphasis the better... If everyone could get that done ahead of time you could really hit the ground running when you came in."
- Did the job sheets introduce the products well? "They were great."
- "The format you put the WES case in was very compatible to the various PCs we had available... I know I'm going to go back and give a seminar on how we should package our training."
SATCAST / UW Cloud-top Cooling
- "We were looking at the CI/CTC quite often and there were some areas that were quite ahead of time where enhanced updraft potential was taking place." (Thursday's event)
- "We saw a lot of the SATCAST along the boundary, but not as much of the CTC... which did make sense because we did see a lot of enhanced cu, but not a lot of really strong storms." (Thursday's event)
- "It (SATCAST) really helped to focus in on the area with the lower probability threshold and then once it transitioned into 50 or above, that's when the strong storms started to develop... very consistently too."
- "I never felt like during the experiment that it (SATCAST) was giving me too much information, like too many false alarms or anything... the strength of signal really helped correspond to what was happening."
- "It (SATCAST) was a great move to go with the strength of signal... it provided information instead of the yes or no... you can compare it to your level of confidence in terms of development."
- "It was definitely important to stress to look at the environment first with these products, especially with the SATCAST product which helped me handle any false alarms."
- "It was nice to match up the CTC with things like the 3D-VAR updraft strength."
- "I only say one high confidence false alarm over the whole week... other than that, when you saw red, you could count on it seeing 30 dBZ or higher." (SATCAST)
- Would you like to see a completely data-fused product with model data or would it be helpful to provide the product by itself as well? "If you could provide both, that would be really useful because sometimes the model is completely wrong."
- Any other potential uses for this (SATCAST) product? "Boundary identifier definitely... you can really pick out areas where instability is increasing."
- "With the CTC, the storm was generally already ongoing... we could use the two products to somehow put an initial lower probability."
- Would you like to see any big changes in the SATCAST product? "I would like to see some studies done on the threshold on the signal strengths." "I would like to see a readout of the background fields."
- "It (CI) enhances the total observations network... I would like to play with it some more."
- Did you like the color scheme for SATCAST? "I liked it... it worked great."
- "I love that product (CTC)... yeah you can look at the IR imagery and figure it out, but why do that extra work... have the algorithm do it for you. It really helped as a situational awareness tool."
- "I issued a warning on the CTC... obviously you have be aware of the situation and the environment."
- Was it obvious every time it happened? "I think it was enough, you could overlay it on visible or radar and then use the accumulated to get a longer picture of what has happened."
- "I'd like to see a longer accumulation product (CTC)... sometimes it was a much longer period between the initial growth before it became strong."
- "Maybe an alarm of a CTC threshold like -10 or -20 C/15 min would be useful."
Nearcast
- "It was picking up a surge of theta-e that was over the eastern-most counties over our CWA, which pointed out an area of enhanced tornadic threat later in the day." (Thursday's event)
- "Near storm environment... specifically the theta-e difference product... you can see the instability extending all the way off shore... you could tell that storm would keep going and going."
- A lot of the time you would have missing data, but specifically with the isolated storms you could really get an idea of where the instability would be."
- "Useful in finding the cold front and relatively stable air... you could see the cold airmass moving in."
- "If there weren't clouds moving in... I wonder if we would have seen cooler more stable air moving in at the 500mb level that would have suppressed convection. It would have been nice to use the different levels more often, but there was a lot going on."
- "We added the synthetic IR to the 4-panel with the nearcast theta-a difference and levels to get an overall picture of what could evolve."
- "Instead of seeing the holes from cloud cover... maybe you could add in some model data to fill the gaps."
Simulated Satellite
- "The simulated imagery really helped depict boundaries where storms would form, and also had a good handle on the mode of the convection." (Thursday's event)
- "Maintaining situational awareness, getting the impression that the short wave was moving in and the moisture coming in to the area, it was great to see how the environment was changing."
- "Potential for convective initiation was brought out... makes those spots look hot on a quick large scale glance"
- "I can easily compare WRF IR to observed IR... it was really simple to do."
Overall / Training
- "Between the satellite stuff and the 3D-VAR, you're really getting a good start on warn-on-forecast... putting it all together would really be very useful."
- "I really felt like I was a warning forecaster during the event... and that is key to a good experiment."
- "The cheat sheets you made for each of the products, how to load them and use them, were really useful."
- A few of the forecasters have asked us to provide them with either a website or some way to bring some of the products into their operations... specifically the simulated satellite imagery and band differences data, as well as the SATCAST and UW cloud-top cooling products. POC information will be provided to the forecasters for each of the products within an end of the week thank you email.
- "Having the forecasters blog really helps you all see if we are 'getting it'."
- How much should we interrupt you during operations? Could you have used more conversation from the PIs? "I thought it was perfect"
- "Not having the pressure to have to 'catch every warning' and having the freedom to test things was very useful in getting some quality feedback."
- "The addition of the extra day on Monday was very helpful in setting up a rhythm."
- Was the pace of the training good? Was it too much? "I thought it was fine... you covered all the products." "I think it's important to emphasize the first training shift at the WFO to come in up to speed... the more emphasis the better... If everyone could get that done ahead of time you could really hit the ground running when you came in."
- Did the job sheets introduce the products well? "They were great."
- "The format you put the WES case in was very compatible to the various PCs we had available... I know I'm going to go back and give a seminar on how we should package our training."
Thursday, May 10, 2012
BRO Afternoon Forecast 1920Z
Forecaster comments from the EWP blog...
Synthetic WRF imagery was useful in making a convective forecast for Brownsville this afternoon. At 13Z, the synthetic WRF depicted two areas of convection over TX with the south complex near Brownsville being slightly displaced to the south in location. This convection was occurring in an area of high shear ahead of an upper level low progress slowly across the southwest U.S. (seen in synthetic and observed imagery).
13Z Synthetic:
13Z Observed IR/WV (top 2 panes):
At 19Z synthetic and observed IR/WV imagery matched up well with the
southern complex, but over did convection to the south of the northern
complex in TX. Over Brownsville area, visible satellite imagery
depicted a low broken cu field at 1914Z which matches low clouds in the
synthetic IR imagery.
19Z Synthetic:
19Z Observed IR/WV (top 2 panes):
1914Z Visible Sat:
Conclusion: The Synthetic WRF model seems to be doing an OK job
overall so far today with a few issues. However, it depicts the upper
low driving convection today as well as 2 distinct areas of convection
over TX.
For Brownsville area for the rest of the afternoon, synthetic images below predict convective initiation around 20Z with convection strengthening through the afternoon hours (22Z image), and then beginning to decrease in strength at 0Z.
20Z Synthetic:
22Z Synthetic:
0Z Synthetic:
Synthetic WRF imagery was useful in making a convective forecast for Brownsville this afternoon. At 13Z, the synthetic WRF depicted two areas of convection over TX with the south complex near Brownsville being slightly displaced to the south in location. This convection was occurring in an area of high shear ahead of an upper level low progress slowly across the southwest U.S. (seen in synthetic and observed imagery).
13Z Synthetic:
19Z Synthetic:
For Brownsville area for the rest of the afternoon, synthetic images below predict convective initiation around 20Z with convection strengthening through the afternoon hours (22Z image), and then beginning to decrease in strength at 0Z.
20Z Synthetic:
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
EWP daily debrief 5/9
Once again, we had our debrief with the NWS forecasters participating in the EWP portion of the Spring Experiment. Below are some comments we got on the products we were demonstrating during yesterday's events...
SATCAST / UW Cloud-top Cooling
- "Convection was ongoing for most of the period, but there were several instances where both CI products would indicate something and we couldn't use radar because there was no coverage... but there were several instances where it definitely showed CI."
- "The CI did really well... the CTC especially did really well where we had no radar coverage... the CTC really showed consistent signatures that were tied to strong updrafts... so there was more than just some value, I think it would be a very helpful tool to keep following."
- "We could see the storms show up in the more sensitive product (SATCAST) first and then it would show up in the CTC and give us an idea of strength... the strength of signal stuff really helped identify the storm progression... we could pick out areas where conditions were improving."
- "One and a half hour lead time on 60 dBZ echo... it was really cool to see that lead time."
- "I really believe that we are going to be able to use the product in diagnosing storm strength and use this for advisory purposes."
- "I can see where we could put out a product before we even see the cells develop... especially for severe weather... we could let people know where we are watching and alert them to the possible threat for severe or tornado."
- "From and aviation perspective, I can see these products being really helpful in forecasting the convective coverage, even if it doesn't become severe."
Nearcast
- "Tried to look at it, but it wasn't too beneficial because there was a lot of missing data due to ongoing convection." (Brownsville)
- "Was very useful in detecting the lower theta-e... saw some successes Monday and saw them again yesterday... projecting a sharp axis of moisture... came in really handy because we could see that moisture was still present after sunset." (El Paso)
Simulated Satellite
- "I wanted to see before the storms started, I see it as a product you could use beforehand... It was timing the actual initiation of the storm quite nicely... you could see the jet and weak perturbation that was triggering the convection... It really helped out."
- "We made a neat procedure... could show the simulated overlaid with the observed and you could really see how the situation would evolve with time."
- "I was really impressed on how well it picked up on the whole pattern, convective initiation and location... the purpose is to get a whole 3D representation and I liked that aspect."
- "Would be useful to identify low clouds and their trends."
Overall / Training
- Forecaster mentioned that providing one end to end product from growth to severe or tornado threat will be the future... being able to communicate your confidence as the situation develops to the user in a constant fashion rather than having a number of different alerts being put out by the NWS, TV and internet is how they envision communicating hazard information in the future.
SATCAST / UW Cloud-top Cooling
- "Convection was ongoing for most of the period, but there were several instances where both CI products would indicate something and we couldn't use radar because there was no coverage... but there were several instances where it definitely showed CI."
- "The CI did really well... the CTC especially did really well where we had no radar coverage... the CTC really showed consistent signatures that were tied to strong updrafts... so there was more than just some value, I think it would be a very helpful tool to keep following."
- "We could see the storms show up in the more sensitive product (SATCAST) first and then it would show up in the CTC and give us an idea of strength... the strength of signal stuff really helped identify the storm progression... we could pick out areas where conditions were improving."
- "One and a half hour lead time on 60 dBZ echo... it was really cool to see that lead time."
- "I really believe that we are going to be able to use the product in diagnosing storm strength and use this for advisory purposes."
- "I can see where we could put out a product before we even see the cells develop... especially for severe weather... we could let people know where we are watching and alert them to the possible threat for severe or tornado."
- "From and aviation perspective, I can see these products being really helpful in forecasting the convective coverage, even if it doesn't become severe."
Nearcast
- "Tried to look at it, but it wasn't too beneficial because there was a lot of missing data due to ongoing convection." (Brownsville)
- "Was very useful in detecting the lower theta-e... saw some successes Monday and saw them again yesterday... projecting a sharp axis of moisture... came in really handy because we could see that moisture was still present after sunset." (El Paso)
Simulated Satellite
- "I wanted to see before the storms started, I see it as a product you could use beforehand... It was timing the actual initiation of the storm quite nicely... you could see the jet and weak perturbation that was triggering the convection... It really helped out."
- "We made a neat procedure... could show the simulated overlaid with the observed and you could really see how the situation would evolve with time."
- "I was really impressed on how well it picked up on the whole pattern, convective initiation and location... the purpose is to get a whole 3D representation and I liked that aspect."
- "Would be useful to identify low clouds and their trends."
Overall / Training
- Forecaster mentioned that providing one end to end product from growth to severe or tornado threat will be the future... being able to communicate your confidence as the situation develops to the user in a constant fashion rather than having a number of different alerts being put out by the NWS, TV and internet is how they envision communicating hazard information in the future.
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
EPZ Meso Update 2115Z
Forecaster comments from EWP blog...
The synthetic WRF run at 05082012 at 0Z correctly predicted several upper level features and mesoscales features correctly for the afternoon of 05082012. The following 4 images show synthetic WRF images of IR (upper left), WV (upper right), and 10.35u-12.3u IR Band Difference (lower left). Looking at the WV imagery you can see an upper low over the U.S. Southwest as well as an upper trough over the upper Midwest. In the IR and WV imagery you can see convection occurring from AZ to NM to TX to CO to Old Mexico. In the brighter white areas of IR, you can see low level cloud cover. In the Band Difference image, you can see the area of best moisture and “hot spot” for convective initiation in the southern tip of TX and into Mexico. The 5th image below is the true observed IR (upper left) and WV (upper right) which verifies the synthetic WRF. This imagery would be very helpful to forecasters in the field because it seems to do a decent job of predicting upper level features, low level clouds, and convection 12-20 hrs in advance.
17Z Synthetic:
18Z Synthetic:
19Z Synthetic:
20Z Synthetic:
20Z Observed IR and WV:
The synthetic WRF run at 05082012 at 0Z correctly predicted several upper level features and mesoscales features correctly for the afternoon of 05082012. The following 4 images show synthetic WRF images of IR (upper left), WV (upper right), and 10.35u-12.3u IR Band Difference (lower left). Looking at the WV imagery you can see an upper low over the U.S. Southwest as well as an upper trough over the upper Midwest. In the IR and WV imagery you can see convection occurring from AZ to NM to TX to CO to Old Mexico. In the brighter white areas of IR, you can see low level cloud cover. In the Band Difference image, you can see the area of best moisture and “hot spot” for convective initiation in the southern tip of TX and into Mexico. The 5th image below is the true observed IR (upper left) and WV (upper right) which verifies the synthetic WRF. This imagery would be very helpful to forecasters in the field because it seems to do a decent job of predicting upper level features, low level clouds, and convection 12-20 hrs in advance.
17Z Synthetic:
Simulated satellite imagery in AWIPS II
AWIPS II 4-panel display of the NSSL-WRF simulated satellite imagery, showing standard IR window (top left), WV (top right) and 10.35-12.3 micron channel difference.
In addition, based on forecaster feedback from last year, CIRA provided us with a new color table to better distinguish areas where convective initiation might occur in the 10.35-12.3 micron channel difference imagery. Forecasters have expressed approval for the new color table and have mentioned that it is easy to detect threat areas.
Monday, May 7, 2012
EFP CI and Severe desks
This year's Experimental Forecast Program (EFP) contains two main focus areas... convective initiation (CI) and severe. Both desks are using experimental high-resolution numerical models and ensembles of those numerical models (CAPS ensemble, SSEO, AFWA) to forecast the first occurrence of a 35 dBZ radar echo (CI) and the subsequent severe weather. They will be examining some of the simulated satellite imagery and unique GOES-R band differences during their forecast operations that we provide them from the NSSL-WRF 0Z 4km model, as well as from some of the members of the CAPS ensemble.
Monday, April 16, 2012
14 April 2012 - Simulated Band Difference
Part of the NSSL-WRF simulated satellite imagery that we get from CIRA includes a band difference unique to GOES-R that we began looking at during last year's Spring Experiment. One of the advantages of simulating satellite data from a model is that we have the opportunity to produce channels that we don't have currently, and we take full advantage of this by producing all 9 of the non-solar GOES-R IR bands. The 10.35 micron channel is a very clean window, and thus is very sensitive to surface temperature. The 12.3 micron channel however is sensitive to low- and mid-level water vapor. As moisture moves into a clear pixel area, the 12.3 micron brightness temperature will decrease, whereas the 10.35 micron temperature should stay the same. When this occurs, the 10.35-12.3 micron channel difference will become strongly positive and indicates areas of moisture convergence or pooling, which can lead to destabilization and subsequent convective initiation.
Unfortunately, because the imagery is generated by a numerical model, it is a) not an observation and b) only available on an hourly timescale. However, we can use the imagery generated from the model as a experimental tool to demonstrate some of the unique things we can do once we have the increased spectral resolution of the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). In this example from the 14 April 2012 outbreak the 10.35-12.3 micron channel difference is useful in identifying the evolution of the dryline across western KS, OK and TX from 1900 UTC on the 14th to 0100 on the 15th (see images below). As moisture converges at the surface, the difference becomes more positive. These positive values show up as yellow, orange and red on the images below. The edge of the dryline is easy to detect and follow using this simple band difference within the NSSL-WRF. It will be very interesting to see observations of this band difference, and other imagery techniques such as RGBs, every 5 minutes over the continental US once we have the GOES-R ABI available to us.
Unfortunately, because the imagery is generated by a numerical model, it is a) not an observation and b) only available on an hourly timescale. However, we can use the imagery generated from the model as a experimental tool to demonstrate some of the unique things we can do once we have the increased spectral resolution of the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). In this example from the 14 April 2012 outbreak the 10.35-12.3 micron channel difference is useful in identifying the evolution of the dryline across western KS, OK and TX from 1900 UTC on the 14th to 0100 on the 15th (see images below). As moisture converges at the surface, the difference becomes more positive. These positive values show up as yellow, orange and red on the images below. The edge of the dryline is easy to detect and follow using this simple band difference within the NSSL-WRF. It will be very interesting to see observations of this band difference, and other imagery techniques such as RGBs, every 5 minutes over the continental US once we have the GOES-R ABI available to us.
Friday, May 27, 2011
End of week debrief... 27 May
Today we had our end of week debrief for the EWP. We did have a fairly robust discussion yesterday regarding the 24 May event, so we tried to gather some additional information from the forecasters. We covered each of the products and how they performed within warning operations this week.
Convective Initiation
- (26 May event) CI did not so well over AL/TN... high FAR, low POD in morning... Forecaster theorized this may have something to do with the less dramatic temperature differences between the surface and clouds during the morning hours.
- CI did much better during rapid scan.
- The UAH version was much more agressive that the UW version.
- Having a probabilistic approach versus a yes/no would help.
- Forecaster used the UW CTC/CI product to issue a severe weather statement... ended up putting a warning on it afterwards.
- This could be important for not just severe weather... the CI products could be very useful for the onset of lightning as sort of a proxy for the growth of a certain dBZ threshold above say a -10 C level if it had faster updates.
- "I'm assuming that performance should improve pretty dramatically once you get the rapid updates with the next-generation satellites, but now I guess it would work best in a clean environment in the plains. I could also see the probabilities a good way to go."
- Maybe contouring SATCAST probabilities would be a good.
- "Based on what it's designed to do, I can see this working in a typical summer afternoon in Florida, not just over the plains."
- Could help identify waterspout candidates because they're harder to see on radar.
- For non-severe faster moving systems it may be useful in detecting regions of heavy rain.
- Would be a good idea to get west coast offices to look at these things since they rely heavily on satellite data because of a lack of surface observations.
Pseudo-GLM
- When we saw cell mergers there was a rapid increase in flash rate over a 5 minute time period and updraft speed from the 3D-VAR analysis.
- A lot of times we would have flash rate increases over the anvil areas downstream... it could help you focus on the new electrification of the storm as well as where new cells might develop or updrafts cores move... would give 10-15 minutes lead time before it showed on radar.
- 10-15 minutes lead time on the first CG.
- "There's a lot of potential use for these types of products... but there is definitely more room for improvement with additional research, as well as increased temporal or spatial resolution."
- It may be difficult to display the rate of change product, not everyone will be looking at the same storm, so having a gridded history would be really useful that you could click on and get an idea of how that storm has evolved.
- Having polarity information would be very useful.
- "Need more research on the forecasting applications of this data."
- Would be interesting to see the PGLM over mini-supercells as well as some winter cases looking at rainfall rates and updraft strengths.
- Ratio of IC-CG would be very useful... being able to query a cell or cluster for it's trend would be helpful.
- The classic MCCs, it would be interesting to see how that related to severe and heavy rain potential.
- Using the PGLM might be useful for a poor man's microwave information in distinguishing areas of convective and trailing stratiform.
- Would have a lot of utility in mountainous regions where flash flooding is a big issue, especially if there is no radar coverage.
- The sum product was not very useful, mainly because of the color scale... everything becomes white... Forecaster used it as a sort of storm total tool, much like precip.
Overshooting-top / Thermal Couplet
- (26 May event) One couplet was over some leading cells along the PN/MD line... the clouds behind that were masked by cirrus and may have limited the detection. When it did trigger, it well differentiated that cell from the rest of the scene.
Nearcast
- (26 May event) The theta-e and precipitable water differences really indicated the marginality of the storms in the foothills... where the maximum stuff intersected that is where we saw the most sustained convection and highest flash rates. It was definitely a good indicator of flash flooding over the area.
- "A lot of the time to increase my lead time in the morning, I like to take a look at PW and WV... so I found that this was a nice utility because it was indicative of finding areas of greatly deep instability, or moisture source regions."
- "One on storm on tuesday, there was strong theta-e gradient that the storm was moving into and that gave me confidence in that the storm would intensify."
- It's a simple way to identify areas of warm advection and instability... this is why the forecaster found it useful in warning operations.
NSSL-WRF Band Difference
- The band difference has a lot of potential... you can get a head start by looking at the trends in the data that help you anticipate what's going to happen.
Overall
- "I enjoyed seeing the combination of the satellite products interacting with the radar and lightning products... it's a great planning tool."
- Need to come up with some pre-made default procedures for the experimental products... it's tough for forecasters to come in cold and learn how to load all of the products and then go into forecasting operations. The forecasters especially applauded the creation of the "ultimate-CI" procedure from last week and that should be saved.
- Create articulate presentations that forecasters can view beforehand rather than having "powerpoint death" on Mondays... this will also maximize the time forecasters have to look at the products.
- Would also be useful to create very short WES cases to send out beforehand that the forecasters can go through before they arrive.
- Forecaster would like to see the derived sounder products within the HWT AWIPS next year.
Convective Initiation
- (26 May event) CI did not so well over AL/TN... high FAR, low POD in morning... Forecaster theorized this may have something to do with the less dramatic temperature differences between the surface and clouds during the morning hours.
- CI did much better during rapid scan.
- The UAH version was much more agressive that the UW version.
- Having a probabilistic approach versus a yes/no would help.
- Forecaster used the UW CTC/CI product to issue a severe weather statement... ended up putting a warning on it afterwards.
- This could be important for not just severe weather... the CI products could be very useful for the onset of lightning as sort of a proxy for the growth of a certain dBZ threshold above say a -10 C level if it had faster updates.
- "I'm assuming that performance should improve pretty dramatically once you get the rapid updates with the next-generation satellites, but now I guess it would work best in a clean environment in the plains. I could also see the probabilities a good way to go."
- Maybe contouring SATCAST probabilities would be a good.
- "Based on what it's designed to do, I can see this working in a typical summer afternoon in Florida, not just over the plains."
- Could help identify waterspout candidates because they're harder to see on radar.
- For non-severe faster moving systems it may be useful in detecting regions of heavy rain.
- Would be a good idea to get west coast offices to look at these things since they rely heavily on satellite data because of a lack of surface observations.
Pseudo-GLM
- When we saw cell mergers there was a rapid increase in flash rate over a 5 minute time period and updraft speed from the 3D-VAR analysis.
- A lot of times we would have flash rate increases over the anvil areas downstream... it could help you focus on the new electrification of the storm as well as where new cells might develop or updrafts cores move... would give 10-15 minutes lead time before it showed on radar.
- 10-15 minutes lead time on the first CG.
- "There's a lot of potential use for these types of products... but there is definitely more room for improvement with additional research, as well as increased temporal or spatial resolution."
- It may be difficult to display the rate of change product, not everyone will be looking at the same storm, so having a gridded history would be really useful that you could click on and get an idea of how that storm has evolved.
- Having polarity information would be very useful.
- "Need more research on the forecasting applications of this data."
- Would be interesting to see the PGLM over mini-supercells as well as some winter cases looking at rainfall rates and updraft strengths.
- Ratio of IC-CG would be very useful... being able to query a cell or cluster for it's trend would be helpful.
- The classic MCCs, it would be interesting to see how that related to severe and heavy rain potential.
- Using the PGLM might be useful for a poor man's microwave information in distinguishing areas of convective and trailing stratiform.
- Would have a lot of utility in mountainous regions where flash flooding is a big issue, especially if there is no radar coverage.
- The sum product was not very useful, mainly because of the color scale... everything becomes white... Forecaster used it as a sort of storm total tool, much like precip.
Overshooting-top / Thermal Couplet
- (26 May event) One couplet was over some leading cells along the PN/MD line... the clouds behind that were masked by cirrus and may have limited the detection. When it did trigger, it well differentiated that cell from the rest of the scene.
Nearcast
- (26 May event) The theta-e and precipitable water differences really indicated the marginality of the storms in the foothills... where the maximum stuff intersected that is where we saw the most sustained convection and highest flash rates. It was definitely a good indicator of flash flooding over the area.
- "A lot of the time to increase my lead time in the morning, I like to take a look at PW and WV... so I found that this was a nice utility because it was indicative of finding areas of greatly deep instability, or moisture source regions."
- "One on storm on tuesday, there was strong theta-e gradient that the storm was moving into and that gave me confidence in that the storm would intensify."
- It's a simple way to identify areas of warm advection and instability... this is why the forecaster found it useful in warning operations.
NSSL-WRF Band Difference
- The band difference has a lot of potential... you can get a head start by looking at the trends in the data that help you anticipate what's going to happen.
Overall
- "I enjoyed seeing the combination of the satellite products interacting with the radar and lightning products... it's a great planning tool."
- Need to come up with some pre-made default procedures for the experimental products... it's tough for forecasters to come in cold and learn how to load all of the products and then go into forecasting operations. The forecasters especially applauded the creation of the "ultimate-CI" procedure from last week and that should be saved.
- Create articulate presentations that forecasters can view beforehand rather than having "powerpoint death" on Mondays... this will also maximize the time forecasters have to look at the products.
- Would also be useful to create very short WES cases to send out beforehand that the forecasters can go through before they arrive.
- Forecaster would like to see the derived sounder products within the HWT AWIPS next year.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Simulated GOES-R band differences
As part of the EFP CI desk's morning forecasts, they asked me to demonstrate the NSSL-WRF simulated 10-12 micron band difference provided to us by CIRA. Neither of these channels are currently available together on our operational GOES satellites and will be available on the GOES-R satellite once it launches. One of the advantages of simulating satellite data from a model is that we have the opportunity to produce channels that we don't have currently, and we take full advantage of this by producing all 9 of the non-solar GOES-R IR bands. The 10 micron channel is a very clean window, and thus is very sensitive to surface temperature. The 12 micron channel however is sensitive to low-level water vapor. As moisture moves into a clear pixel area, the 12 micron brightness temperature will decrease, whereas the 10 micron temperature should stay the same. When this occurs, the 10-12 micron channel difference will become strongly positive and indicates areas of moisture convergence or pooling, which can lead to destabilization and subsequent convective initiation. Below is a collection of today's notable images, with signals of moisture pooling and destabilization shown in yellow and orange colors...
NSSL-WRF simulated 10-12 micron band difference for 1600 UTC (top), 1900 UTC (middle) and 2000 UTC (bottom) on 24 May 2011.
At 1600 UTC (top image above), we can see that the channel difference is showing an area of low clouds (blue/green colors) beginning to dissipate over central Oklahoma. At 1900 UTC (middle image above) these low clouds are completely dissipated and we can start to see some development of pooling moisture along the dryline in W. OK and the triple point on the OK/KS border. By 2000 UTC (bottom image above), storms begin to initiate near the triple point and values in the channel difference become strongly positive just south along the dryline.
NSSL-WRF simulated 10-12 micron band difference for 2200 UTC on 24 May 2011.
At 2200 UTC (image above) additional convection develops on the southern part of the dryline in central OK and into TX. It is interesting to note the presence of linear bands of enhanced moisture pooling where the convection develops ahead of the dryline. It is theorized by the EFP CI desk participants that this may be signals of horizontal convective rolls within the model leading to areas of enhanced convective potential. This demonstrates a very interesting tool to help aid forecasters in the prediction of convective initiation and also a unique combination of satellite and model information.
At 1600 UTC (top image above), we can see that the channel difference is showing an area of low clouds (blue/green colors) beginning to dissipate over central Oklahoma. At 1900 UTC (middle image above) these low clouds are completely dissipated and we can start to see some development of pooling moisture along the dryline in W. OK and the triple point on the OK/KS border. By 2000 UTC (bottom image above), storms begin to initiate near the triple point and values in the channel difference become strongly positive just south along the dryline.
At 2200 UTC (image above) additional convection develops on the southern part of the dryline in central OK and into TX. It is interesting to note the presence of linear bands of enhanced moisture pooling where the convection develops ahead of the dryline. It is theorized by the EFP CI desk participants that this may be signals of horizontal convective rolls within the model leading to areas of enhanced convective potential. This demonstrates a very interesting tool to help aid forecasters in the prediction of convective initiation and also a unique combination of satellite and model information.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Day 3 forecaster interactions...
This morning 3 of the visiting forecasters participated in the EFP's new CI desk. The discussion was based on where they expected new convection to occur within a selected domain encompassing most of OK, the northern half of TX, southern half of KS, and eastern halves of CO and NM. The simulated reflectivity from the NSSL-WRf was examined early during the forecast period to help determine the accuracy of the NSSL-WRF model. While it was decided that the NSSL-WRF didn't capture the early MCS over W. TX and OK, it did show some potential useful information regarding CI forming along the dryline later in the day once the MCS moves on and instability returns. We also examined the 10-12 micron band difference product to help determine specific areas where CI would occur (see below).
NSSL-WRF simulated GOES-R 10-12 micron band difference for 1900 UTC on 11 May, 2011. Arrows indicate areas where low-level moisture is favorable for convective development.
While the group decided collectively on a conditional slight/moderate/high contoured area, individual participants were asked to select a point where they expect the first CI to occur within 25 miles, as well as what time they expect it to occur and their confidence in their forecast. This input helps generate a human based PDF that can be compared to the model generated PDF following the forecast period. I picked a point near Lawton, OK at 2000 UTC with a 30 min +/- window and a 70% confidence... we'll see how I do.
NSSL Scientist Mike Coniglio leading the forecast discussion at the EFP CI desk.
Following the CI desk forecast, invited EWP forecasters began working on an initial AFD on their AWIPS stations. Forecasters are using a combination of operational model field, as well as some experimental data from the Nearcast and the OUN-WRF. Ralph Petersen spent some time with the forecasters to explain how the Nearcast output could help increase their confidence of thunderstorm development. Forecasters have seemed very interested in a strictly observation-based forecast out to 9 hours... some have even asked how to get this data back into their AWIPS at their local WFO.
Ralph Petersen of UW-CIMSS explains the Nearcast product to NWS forecasters during real-time forecast operations.
While the group decided collectively on a conditional slight/moderate/high contoured area, individual participants were asked to select a point where they expect the first CI to occur within 25 miles, as well as what time they expect it to occur and their confidence in their forecast. This input helps generate a human based PDF that can be compared to the model generated PDF following the forecast period. I picked a point near Lawton, OK at 2000 UTC with a 30 min +/- window and a 70% confidence... we'll see how I do.
Following the CI desk forecast, invited EWP forecasters began working on an initial AFD on their AWIPS stations. Forecasters are using a combination of operational model field, as well as some experimental data from the Nearcast and the OUN-WRF. Ralph Petersen spent some time with the forecasters to explain how the Nearcast output could help increase their confidence of thunderstorm development. Forecasters have seemed very interested in a strictly observation-based forecast out to 9 hours... some have even asked how to get this data back into their AWIPS at their local WFO.
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