This morning 3 of the visiting forecasters participated in the EFP's new CI desk. The discussion was based on where they expected new convection to occur within a selected domain encompassing most of OK, the northern half of TX, southern half of KS, and eastern halves of CO and NM. The simulated reflectivity from the NSSL-WRf was examined early during the forecast period to help determine the accuracy of the NSSL-WRF model. While it was decided that the NSSL-WRF didn't capture the early MCS over W. TX and OK, it did show some potential useful information regarding CI forming along the dryline later in the day once the MCS moves on and instability returns. We also examined the 10-12 micron band difference product to help determine specific areas where CI would occur (see below).
NSSL-WRF simulated GOES-R 10-12 micron band difference for 1900 UTC on 11 May, 2011. Arrows indicate areas where low-level moisture is favorable for convective development.
While the group decided collectively on a conditional slight/moderate/high contoured area, individual participants were asked to select a point where they expect the first CI to occur within 25 miles, as well as what time they expect it to occur and their confidence in their forecast. This input helps generate a human based PDF that can be compared to the model generated PDF following the forecast period. I picked a point near Lawton, OK at 2000 UTC with a 30 min +/- window and a 70% confidence... we'll see how I do.
NSSL Scientist Mike Coniglio leading the forecast discussion at the EFP CI desk.
Following the CI desk forecast, invited EWP forecasters began working on an initial AFD on their AWIPS stations. Forecasters are using a combination of operational model field, as well as some experimental data from the Nearcast and the OUN-WRF. Ralph Petersen spent some time with the forecasters to explain how the Nearcast output could help increase their confidence of thunderstorm development. Forecasters have seemed very interested in a strictly observation-based forecast out to 9 hours... some have even asked how to get this data back into their AWIPS at their local WFO.
Ralph Petersen of UW-CIMSS explains the Nearcast product to NWS forecasters during real-time forecast operations.
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