A storm in Cherry County, NE was moving southeast, in an environment characterized by very high effective shear (70 kt) and lower MLCAPE (700 J/kg). ProbSevere v3 (PSv3) was maintaining a higher probability of severe than v2 (by about 20%). This is likely due to version 2's over-reliance on ENI lightning data. In this case, the storm was very lightning deficient. However, the PSv3 models were able to overcome the dearth of lightning with all of the other data that it uses. The ML models of PSv3 do this better than those of v2. This is just another example of why using fused observations and datasets really help optimize your use of the data.
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| Figure 1: ProbSevere v3, MRMS MergedRef, and NWS severe thunderstorm warning for a storm entering Cherry Co., Nebraska. |