Lightning under thick ice

 Just documenting another case of LightningCast improving predictions of lightning under thick ice, where ABI can't "see" the convection. Storms were diminishing in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois during the morning of July 29, but there was still a lightning threat, which LCv2 (ABI+MRMS predictors) correctly highlighted whereas LCv1 had much diminished probabilities. 

Figure 1: Animation of LCv2 probabilities (contours, left), LCv1 probabilities (contours, right), GOES-19 ABI Ash RGB (background), and GOES-19 GLM flash-extent density (foreground blue pixels).

We see that MRMS Reflectivity at -10C, a predictor in LCv2, showed pockets of ≥ 35 dBZ in southern Wisconsin, indicative of a lightning threat. Without the reflective bands in ABI contributing much at this time in the morning, the Reflectivity at -10C was impactful at correctly elevating lightning probabilities from about 09:30 to 10:20 UTC.

Figure 2: MRMS Reflectivity -10C at 10:00 UTC