The second week of the EWP is in the books with forecasters participating from the San Diego, Eureka, Huntsville, Sterling and Norman WFO’s, as well as a broadcast meteorologist from NBC4 Columbus, OH. In the early part of the week, forecasters were fairly spread out across the country with operations in Sterling, Tampa Bay, Pocatello, Wilmington, and Louisville. With the ridge building in the center of the country, our operations domain became much smaller as we moved to Texas for the latter part of the week. The WFOs worked in Texas included Houston, San Antonio, San Angelo, Midland, and Lubbock. Overall, forecasters had a good mix of forecasting/warning on convective modes and time scales. Similar to last week, we were able to evaluate the entire product suite of GOES-R and ENI products.
Below is a synopsis of feedback for the GOES-R products:
- Bill Line, SPC/HWT Satellite Liaison
GOES-R LAP
– The striping and blotchiness/unnatural extreme gradients lower my confidence in these products. It would be great if this issue could be resolved.
– At the beginning of shift yesterday, the CAPE and PW gradients seemed to match up well with the dryline via surface obs.
– The cell that developed behind the dryline in a stable atmosphere as indicated by LAP CAPE remained sub-severe.
– I wouldn’t use it by itself, but I would compare and contrast to SPC meso page and LAPS to boost confidence.
– It was most useful to pay attention to the gradients and trends in the fields. Most often, convection developed along these boundaries and in areas of increasing instability/moisture.
– The PW fields, including the three layers, were nice to have. I had most confidence in this field.
NUCAPS
– It was cumbersome to have to modify the surface conditions with most profiles. It would be nice if this process was automated.
– QC flags would be helpful to have so we know with confidence which profiles to trust.
– It would be nice to have the ability to sample the green dots for information such as QC, instability, moisture, etc, giving you some quick information about those soundings.
– The profiles are smoothed out, but they still give you unique information about the environment.
– I liked that it is observed sounding information
– The timing is great (between 12z and 00z RAOBs).
– I see this having utility for my office over ocean on west coast.
– We would definitely use it in our office.
– I look forward to using this during the winter season
– There were a couple cases throughout the week where the NUCAPS soundings showed instability, and convection developed/strengthened as it moved through that area
GOES-R CI
– I wish it was better through cirrus
– I would like it if you could somehow signal why the probability is going away. Is it because the storm has reached the necessary degree of maturation, or because that cloud is no longer expected to initiate?
– I look forward to using it with routine 5-min imagery in the GOES-R era. I think that will definitely make the algorithm more useful and display less messy.
– For me, broadcaster, it was the most useful tool. It gives me a quick look at where convective activity is most likely in the near future
– I provides information we don’t already have
– I was most useful when I monitored trends over a certain area, as opposed to trying to track individual cu
– I think it could even be put on tv
ProbSevere
– SigTor might help with tornado environments, DCAPE for high wind.
– Having a time series would be helpful to see changes in probabilities through time. It is pretty easy to follow as is, but a times series would just add to it as an alternative method of visualizing past tendencies
– Definitely performed best as a hail predictor
– We had slam dunk, hail days this week, so it will be interesting to evaluate it with lower end and non-hail days
– In Florida, I used it to indicate a wind threat with a collapsing cell by looking at decreasing probabilities in probsevere. The storm did result in some wind damage. If you know environment might be conducive to microbursts, and see probsevere falling, you might want to have elevated awareness for an imminent damaging wind threat
– I am a fan of the descriptive words in the readout (weak, mod, strong).
– Satellite input field’s added lead time when we had the satellite information previous days. Lead time was lessened when we didn’t have the satellite information because of cirrus yesterday.
– A different color scale might be necessary for WR, where probabilities were much lower.
Lightning jump
– Worked great for us yesterday, it was often the first indication that a storm was intensifying. It signaled us to interrogate radar data for a given storm.
– One example yesterday, there was not much originally on radar at lowest level, then we had a jump, so we looked at the storm more closely, and found good signals in radar dual pol and at upper levels. Storm then strengthened.
– Some sort of colorscale for negative “lightning jumps” would be helpful. Also more research and training on the negative jumps. Do rapid decreases in lightning activity precede rapid storm weakening?
– Overall, display is simple, easy to use, good SA for fast changing event.
– It would be helpful to display the max value for the last 5-6 minutes in LJ, so significant changes would be be more difficult to miss.
– I really started to pay attention when jumps were to 4+
PGLM
– Flash extent density was awesome, and it has science behind it which is good
– The 6-min summation product needs to have a higher color scale.
– Yesterday, it did a great job of pinpointing strengthening storms as they intensified
– Shades of blue at low end of color scale I was using is helpful for more marginal cases, while a different color bar may be more applicable for storms with much increased lightning activity.
– It will be nice to have uniform detection efficiency across domain with GOES-R GLM.
-Darrel Kingfield, CIMMS/NSSL Research Associate & Week 2 EWP Coordinator
Friday, May 15, 2015
Thursday, May 14, 2015
CAPE LAP helped with confidence
Here is an example where having the hourly CAPE LAP data helped with environmental awareness. Some storms were forming to the SW of the main storms and at first glance, you may think they will go severe since all the other storms have as well. This is especially true if you weren’t really looking at the current environment.
Take a look here at the 21z analysis and specifically at the lightning that is circle. There was a line of moderately strong thunderstorms developing here. You can see it is clearly outside of any CAPE analysis. I was fairly confident with this that the storms wouldn’t go severe. To note, the dry line was also to the east at this time.
At 22Z, the CAPE has continued moving east and the convection is still there but not severe.
Between about 2222z-2232z the ProbSvr did increase to the 60-70% range but nothing higher than that and that was in two different cells. Again, looking at this hourly LAP data helped confirm to me that these storms likely wouldn’t amount to much.
Lauren
Take a look here at the 21z analysis and specifically at the lightning that is circle. There was a line of moderately strong thunderstorms developing here. You can see it is clearly outside of any CAPE analysis. I was fairly confident with this that the storms wouldn’t go severe. To note, the dry line was also to the east at this time.
At 22Z, the CAPE has continued moving east and the convection is still there but not severe.
Between about 2222z-2232z the ProbSvr did increase to the 60-70% range but nothing higher than that and that was in two different cells. Again, looking at this hourly LAP data helped confirm to me that these storms likely wouldn’t amount to much.
Lauren
Lightning Jump Max product
Someone probably already mentioned this, but it would be helpful to get a product for the lightning jump that displays the max jump value over a time period. The jumps can come and go so quickly with the 1-min data that you can miss large, but quick jumps if you’re not watching it constantly. A 5 or 6-min max value product might be more useful for warning operations when you are typically looking at several things at once and don’t have time to constantly monitor the one Lightning Jump 1-min data.
~Regina Phalange
~Regina Phalange
LJDA/pGLM First Experimental Products to Capture Intensification
Had an example where the lightning jump detection algorithm and the pGLM flash extent density did an excellent job of capturing rapid intensification of a new cell (the one on the right) in the southern part of our CWA. The lightning jump detection algorithm had a 4-5 sigma jump at the same time that the flash extent density showed a nice cluster of flashes.These features are seen at the very end of the gif loop below. Just a quick color map note: the default color map for the pGLM data looked the best for the high flash rates. The other two color maps were too messy to be of use.
Press to loop
When we noticed this, we quickly looked at All Tilts base data and observed a Zdr column extending well above the freezing level. Using these two pieces of information we issued a warning on the storm. Shortly after, ProbSevere and MRMS MESH/Z above -20 increased rapidly.
Press to loop
Ertel/Regina Phalange
Press to loop
When we noticed this, we quickly looked at All Tilts base data and observed a Zdr column extending well above the freezing level. Using these two pieces of information we issued a warning on the storm. Shortly after, ProbSevere and MRMS MESH/Z above -20 increased rapidly.
Press to loop
Ertel/Regina Phalange
CI Prob Day in Review
CI Prob really struggled today in MAF. It struggled to indicate much convection at all. There was a layer of clouds over the cwa that persisted through the forecast period. This was the most disappointing performance for CI during this workshop. It was not a useful tool today. Satellite data, Prop Severe and radar were more effective in that order…as development on satellite was very easy to distinguish before reflectivity appeared on radar. UFFSU
New Warning Help
While watching the storms redevelop…I utilized a screen with the -20C MRMS data, the ProbSvr model and the ENI thunderstorm alerts. I had a TimeSeries on another plot as well.
2258Z.. Focus on the pink circle in the middle. This is where it first pulsed from 27-74%.
2300z the ProbSvr pulsed to 82%
2302Z…ProbSvr was 82% and I saw the -20C reflectivity jump to 62dbz.
at 2304Z… probSvr was 95%
The SVR went out at 2306. And ProbSvr remained at 95%.
I could have look at this a little earlier and probably warned at 2302 looking back. But for the record, once I looked at it.. all I did was look at the display that is in the screen captures and only went through the all tilts once. So in reality.. I would have had to maybe wait a scan or two in all tilts to process before issuing. Where here, with the MRMS data and ProbSvr I was confident issuing quicker than I would have with legacy abilities.
Lauren
2258Z.. Focus on the pink circle in the middle. This is where it first pulsed from 27-74%.
2300z the ProbSvr pulsed to 82%
2302Z…ProbSvr was 82% and I saw the -20C reflectivity jump to 62dbz.
at 2304Z… probSvr was 95%
The SVR went out at 2306. And ProbSvr remained at 95%.
I could have look at this a little earlier and probably warned at 2302 looking back. But for the record, once I looked at it.. all I did was look at the display that is in the screen captures and only went through the all tilts once. So in reality.. I would have had to maybe wait a scan or two in all tilts to process before issuing. Where here, with the MRMS data and ProbSvr I was confident issuing quicker than I would have with legacy abilities.
Lauren
ProbSvr Helping Warning Expiration
I utilized ProbSvr again today to help me to determine whether or not to let a warning expire or continue it. I also have the -20C MRMS height under this and that has also helped. My warning was supposed to expire at 2245z. I skipped a few screen captures for the sake of time/space.
2234Z ProbSvr was still at 90%
2238Z.. ProbSvr is down to 77%
At 2240Z…ProbSvr down to 75%
Here at 2244Z…probsvr is down to 74%
Although these probs are still fairly high.. the trend down was enough to let me expire it and the trend continued after expiration.
Lauren
2234Z ProbSvr was still at 90%
2238Z.. ProbSvr is down to 77%
At 2240Z…ProbSvr down to 75%
Here at 2244Z…probsvr is down to 74%
Although these probs are still fairly high.. the trend down was enough to let me expire it and the trend continued after expiration.
Lauren
ProbSvr with Warnings
Here is an interesting example of ProbSvr ramping up while looking at 4 storms.
2214Z. ProbSvr is picking up four cells. This is the first scan where the two right cells have pulsed. Earlier, this could be a situation where we weren’t sure which storms would pulse back up. Seeing this helped the LUB office issue the severe you see here.
2216 shows both right cells increasing some more.
2220 shows them combining so it’s hard to say which storm is stronger now.
2224 and we issued the southern severe.
At 2232 Z reported quarter size hail.
The ProbSvr showing the difference in the cells helped us see which ones needed the focus of attention. It caught the high probs on the southern storm before the warning went out with a higher lead time for the hail. Again, it is to note that when the two storms combined, that may be why it spiked up because the northern storm was stronger at an earlier point.
Lauren/mahal
2214Z. ProbSvr is picking up four cells. This is the first scan where the two right cells have pulsed. Earlier, this could be a situation where we weren’t sure which storms would pulse back up. Seeing this helped the LUB office issue the severe you see here.
2216 shows both right cells increasing some more.
2220 shows them combining so it’s hard to say which storm is stronger now.
2224 and we issued the southern severe.
At 2232 Z reported quarter size hail.
The ProbSvr showing the difference in the cells helped us see which ones needed the focus of attention. It caught the high probs on the southern storm before the warning went out with a higher lead time for the hail. Again, it is to note that when the two storms combined, that may be why it spiked up because the northern storm was stronger at an earlier point.
Lauren/mahal
ProbSevere and experimental warnings
Our forecast teams in Midland and Lubbock have been coordinating on experimental severe thunderstorm warnings, as storms blew up under a moderate cirrus shield (Figure 1). ProbSevere has served to increase confidence and prompt warnings, where the probability jumps up quickly.
For instance, in the northernmost two warnings, a forecaster in Midland shared with me that the probability jumping from 9% to 35% in a few scans gave him enough confidence to pull the trigger on an experimental warning in this high-MUCAPE moderate-shear environment. Golf ball and quarter-sized hail have been reported in several of the southern warnings.
-Cintineo
 |
| Figure 1: ProbSevere, MRMS composite reflectivity, and HWT experimental warnings. |
-Cintineo
NUCAPS vs Observed RAOB
Today we got a special sounding at 18Z from KMAF to compare with the 19 Z NUCAPS sounding at roughly the same location. The NUCAPS sounding was able to pick up on the stable layer above 850 mb, although the NUCAPS sounding did have it a little higher. Also, after modifying the boundary layer T/Td in the NUCAPS sounding, MUCAPE values were very comparable between the two.
19Z NUCAPS
18Z KMAF
19Z NUCAPS
18Z KMAF
ProbSevere in Utah
Though far outside of our forecasters' CWAs of operation, a lone storm in southern Utah gradually increased in ProbSevere probability. It was 50% at 19:12Z (Figure 1), then fluctuated between 30% and 50% until 19:26Z when it reached almost 60% (Figure 2), and rapidly rose to 76% (Figure 3) and then 91% at 19:32Z (Figure 4), when it was warned by the National Weather Service. No reports have been received yet.
-Cintineo
 |
| Figure 1: ProbSevere, composite reflectivity, visible reflectance, and NWS severe weather warnings at 19:12Z. |
 |
| Figure 2: ProbSevere, composite reflectivity, visible reflectance, and NWS severe weather warnings at 19:26Z. |
 |
| Figure 3: ProbSevere, composite reflectivity, visible reflectance, and NWS severe weather warnings at 19:30Z. |
 |
| Figure 4: ProbSevere, composite reflectivity, visible reflectance, and NWS severe weather warnings at 19:34Z. |
-Cintineo
CI Sample
The images show a small break in the cirrus across Eddy County. The CI picked up on this for one scan before the cirrus moved back in. A storm did form there. The 40% for this one scan was underdone due to some cirrus contamination.
1845 Z (above)
19Z (above)
1915Z (above)
1931Z (above)
-Champion
1845 Z (above)
19Z (above)
1931Z (above)
-Champion
Missed CI
Cirrus clouds may have impacted the CI algorithm (click to animate):
Note that the developing convection is evident on the visible satellite.
This convection is associated with >35 dBZ echoes (click to animate):
There is a possibility that the infrared satellite may be weighted too heavily during the day time because it is clear on the visible data there was convective initiation.
Here is what the infrared satellite observed (click to animate):
Note the dense cirrus across the area, which likely impacted the CI algorithm.
Mahale
Note that the developing convection is evident on the visible satellite.
This convection is associated with >35 dBZ echoes (click to animate):
There is a possibility that the infrared satellite may be weighted too heavily during the day time because it is clear on the visible data there was convective initiation.
Here is what the infrared satellite observed (click to animate):
Note the dense cirrus across the area, which likely impacted the CI algorithm.
Mahale
LUB Mesoscale 19Z Forecast
Current sfc conditions in the LUB CWA are generally characterized by temps in the M/U 70s and Tds U50s/L60s. GOES sounder information shows moisture advection to our west pooling along the Rockies in NM.
19Z GOES Total PW
Recent satellite/radar trends show CI occurred just prior to 19Z in SE NM. CAPE values over CWA via GOES sounder are AOB 100 J/KG, but are expected to increase through the day.
GOES 19Z CAPE
Model guidance suggests that ML CAPE values will not be very impressive (max AOB 500 J/KG), with 0-6 km bulk shear AOB 30 kts through 00Z, but shear values are expected to increase after 00Z as wind field strengthens. MU CAPE values AOA 1000 J/KG especially over our southern zones appear likely…with MU CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG also possible. Overall, expect large hail and severe wind gusts to be main threat through the early afternoon. Tornado potential appears low, especially through the early afternoon.
ERTEL
19Z GOES Total PW
Recent satellite/radar trends show CI occurred just prior to 19Z in SE NM. CAPE values over CWA via GOES sounder are AOB 100 J/KG, but are expected to increase through the day.
GOES 19Z CAPE
Model guidance suggests that ML CAPE values will not be very impressive (max AOB 500 J/KG), with 0-6 km bulk shear AOB 30 kts through 00Z, but shear values are expected to increase after 00Z as wind field strengthens. MU CAPE values AOA 1000 J/KG especially over our southern zones appear likely…with MU CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG also possible. Overall, expect large hail and severe wind gusts to be main threat through the early afternoon. Tornado potential appears low, especially through the early afternoon.
ERTEL
Cloud Layer Impacting CI Prob
Showers, thunderstorms are initiating in our western cwa. This initiation was first noticed on satellite with rising clouds tops evident. Reflectivity started showing up at approx 1815z. These showers continued their development through the course of time. Satellite easily shows instances of this. So far, CI Prob was not picked up on this developing trend at all. No probabilities with CI showed until 1900z. These is after storms have initiated that are at or greater than 40dbz. Will continue to watch CI Prob through the afternoon as additional storms to initiate to see if pre-existing cloud contamination throws CI Prob off.
1815z
1900z
1815z
1900z
Larger Scale GOES Features
As we wait for storms to develop in MAF, I am monitoring a few GOES-R products to track the impeding chance for storms and severe weather. Higher layer CAPE values continue to move into the cwa, especially the eastern half. There is some moisture potential available in the atmosphere, demonstrated by layered PW. The PW is not necessarily high, but existent with a surge as far west as our New Mexico counties in the cwa. There is a steep decrease in CAPE and PW in the extreme western portion of the cwa. This encourages the forecaster to focus attention in central cwa for development through the course of the afternoon. UFFSU
MAF Mesoscale Thoughts
A few interesting features setting up today in the MAF CWA. Initial CAPE values and moisture are increasing/advecting in from the S-SW from 17-18z. CAPE is also showing some “bulls-eye” like features in SJT’s area which is probably not correct but still gives us an idea for a focus of convection. It is not clearing out well with a thin layer of cirrus. Even then we are starting to destabilize. There is a dry line sitting N-S and stretching through SW Texas with dewpoints to the east in the mid 60s and in the mid 30s to the west. The shortwave aloft is still back in eastern Arizona which is where the upper support is going to come from. I think it is going to be a race between the dry line pushing through and the upper shortwave moving in. Model guidance has the line/instability pushing quickly east so if we don’t initiate in the next few hours it may end up too dry for anything to pop. There is good deep layer cape/shear so if we can start to initiate the storms will likely be strong. As of 1850z, there are a few showers showing up in the NM counties so we will see how those evolve.
17z CAPE
18z CAPE increasing
17z PW
17zPW
18z PW
18zPW
Lauren/Mahale
17z CAPE
18z CAPE increasing
17z PW
17zPW
18z PW
18zPW
Lauren/Mahale
GOES-R PW forecast for initiation
A quick glance at the GOES-R Layer PW as of 1800Z May 13 reveals a large pool of moisture with PW values around 1.8 inches in southeast Texas.
A curl of 0.75 inch layer PW extended up from the main pool, butting up against the mountains of eastern New Mexico.
Anticipating storm initiation within this area, with cells developing and moving into northwest Texas and the Lubbock CWA later this afternoon. Kick-off will likely be late in the afternoon due to the thick cirrus cloud layer currently over the area. CI is trying to pick up on a couple cloud elements over eastern New Mexico as the cirrus begins to clear from that area.
Stay tuned….
~Regina Phalange
A curl of 0.75 inch layer PW extended up from the main pool, butting up against the mountains of eastern New Mexico.
Stay tuned….
~Regina Phalange
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
Daily Summary: Week 2, Day 3 (May 13, 2015)
In contrast to yesterday, today our forecasters received a warm welcome to South Texas, operating close together in Houston (HGX), San Antonio (EWX), San Angelo (SJT), and Midland (MAF). Forecasters were once again exposed to an blend of ongoing convection caused by a very large precipitation shield to the East and fairly consistent developing multi-cellular/linear convection in southwest Texas ahead of the dryline and inside a narrow corridor of instability. Today we saw extensive evaluation of the ENTLN lightning trend graphs, Lightning Jump, ProbSevere, and GOES-R CI and had a fair amount of coordination between teams of adjoining CWAs.
In an EWP first, each of the three teams issued a warning covering a single storm from three different CWAs. After a round of applause, forecasters were back at work.
Overall, an interesting day after a fairly pessimistic morning briefing. Here’s hoping for a strong finish tomorrow as we will most likely continue operations in West Texas.
-Darrel Kingfield, CMMS/NSSL Research Associate & Week 2 EWP Coordinator
Feedback from Daily Debrief
- Bill Line, SPC/HWT Satellite Liaison
GOES-R LAP.
- PW did well – represented the gradients closely. With spc meso, was within 10%. Gradients and advection were represented well.
- Only bad thing is the striping, sharp, unrealistic gradients.
- Did a good job with axis of instability, convection developed along the gradient, where one would expect
NUCAPS
- I looked at a sounding (modified) ahead of the developing convection in Texas; it showed that the environment was quite unstable with adequate moisture. To the west, much less instability and little moisture in the profiles. Storms moving into the area of the first RAOB grew strong and produced severe, with no new development to the west.
GOES-R CI
- It did much better than the past few days, maybe cause there was less clouds around, keyed in on initial cu development. I was able to see a trend, increase in probs, then storms went in satellite. Would be helpful as a border cwa, to use data in mexico, to see where storm would go
- When we switched to midland, did well showed development along a line right away
- In South Dakota where instability was weaker, it did not do well. In florida where instability was abundant, it was doing better.
- Concern in San Antonio was if it any storms along the boundary would reach us, seeing CI pick it up told us that something would build south, and indeed move into our CWA
- In San Angelo, ci was keying before storms first formed, once it started, gave increased confidence that line would continue to grow. Was some cloud cover to start too
ProbSevere
- Storm went up to 89% scan or two before we issued warning. When warning was almost expiring, we were sure exactly what we wanted to do. Probsevere started to come down, plus not looking good on radar, used this to expire warning.
- I issued a severe thunderstorm warning based on just probsevere. Glaciation and updraft both strong. I placed polygon same time that probsevere reached its max. Seeing rapid increases in probs increased my confidence to issue severe warning. Three body spike soon after. I used only the base reflectivity and ProbSevere to issue the warning.
- Useful to have lower values to see ramp up in probs, blocking out low probs would cause us to miss some trends.
- A time trend graph in probs would be useful to see
- I liked using it with mrms underlay, times match
Lightning jump
- Negative LJ was a sign of rapid storm dissipation, before storm weakened. Perhaps there should be a color scale for the negative “jumps”.
- It did well at capturing upward trends, but easy to miss them with the 1-min updates.
- Sometimes chaotic with different values in LJ from scan to scan.
PGLM
In an EWP first, each of the three teams issued a warning covering a single storm from three different CWAs. After a round of applause, forecasters were back at work.
Overall, an interesting day after a fairly pessimistic morning briefing. Here’s hoping for a strong finish tomorrow as we will most likely continue operations in West Texas.
-Darrel Kingfield, CMMS/NSSL Research Associate & Week 2 EWP Coordinator
Feedback from Daily Debrief
- Bill Line, SPC/HWT Satellite Liaison
GOES-R LAP.
- PW did well – represented the gradients closely. With spc meso, was within 10%. Gradients and advection were represented well.
- Only bad thing is the striping, sharp, unrealistic gradients.
- Did a good job with axis of instability, convection developed along the gradient, where one would expect
NUCAPS
- I looked at a sounding (modified) ahead of the developing convection in Texas; it showed that the environment was quite unstable with adequate moisture. To the west, much less instability and little moisture in the profiles. Storms moving into the area of the first RAOB grew strong and produced severe, with no new development to the west.
GOES-R CI
- It did much better than the past few days, maybe cause there was less clouds around, keyed in on initial cu development. I was able to see a trend, increase in probs, then storms went in satellite. Would be helpful as a border cwa, to use data in mexico, to see where storm would go
- When we switched to midland, did well showed development along a line right away
- In South Dakota where instability was weaker, it did not do well. In florida where instability was abundant, it was doing better.
- Concern in San Antonio was if it any storms along the boundary would reach us, seeing CI pick it up told us that something would build south, and indeed move into our CWA
- In San Angelo, ci was keying before storms first formed, once it started, gave increased confidence that line would continue to grow. Was some cloud cover to start too
ProbSevere
- Storm went up to 89% scan or two before we issued warning. When warning was almost expiring, we were sure exactly what we wanted to do. Probsevere started to come down, plus not looking good on radar, used this to expire warning.
- I issued a severe thunderstorm warning based on just probsevere. Glaciation and updraft both strong. I placed polygon same time that probsevere reached its max. Seeing rapid increases in probs increased my confidence to issue severe warning. Three body spike soon after. I used only the base reflectivity and ProbSevere to issue the warning.
- Useful to have lower values to see ramp up in probs, blocking out low probs would cause us to miss some trends.
- A time trend graph in probs would be useful to see
- I liked using it with mrms underlay, times match
Lightning jump
- Negative LJ was a sign of rapid storm dissipation, before storm weakened. Perhaps there should be a color scale for the negative “jumps”.
- It did well at capturing upward trends, but easy to miss them with the 1-min updates.
- Sometimes chaotic with different values in LJ from scan to scan.
PGLM
Visualizing Lightning Data
Here is an example of a display that I tried today that seemed to really help with analysis. I liked it since it kept the time series on the side and allowed for interrogation of the other data sets in a larger main editor and at the same time I could quickly glance at the lightning time series to determine the trends in lightning data. In the display, the northern cell goes with the top right time series and the southern cells goes with the bottom right time series.
Ertel
HWT Interoffice Coordination!
What a great time working with our neighboring offices for a severe cell moving into the three corners of our CWAs. Thanks Midland and San Angelo for the great coordination!
ERTEL/Lauren
ERTEL/Lauren
Hits and Misses in OT Detection Algorithm
Here is an example showing some hits (in green) and a miss (in red) for the OT detection algorithm. Thankfully, the better resolution of GOES-R should help with OT detection!
Lightning Jump Sample
Image 1. The Lightning Jump showed a 2 sigma at 2358Z (left image) in southwest TX. The cell was in the process of strengthening at that time (right image).
Within 10 minutes the storm strengthened and showed a TBSS.
Will note this is using 0.5 degree and is 18,000 ft AGL about 130 nm away from the radar.
The Lightning Jump increased to a 4 sigma at 0010Z (left image). A few minutes later this was reflected in the radar (right image).20
-Champion
Within 10 minutes the storm strengthened and showed a TBSS.
Will note this is using 0.5 degree and is 18,000 ft AGL about 130 nm away from the radar.
The Lightning Jump increased to a 4 sigma at 0010Z (left image). A few minutes later this was reflected in the radar (right image).20
-Champion
ProbSevere in Warning Decision Making…Part 2
Here is another example where ProbSevere rapidly increased form 18% to 94% (click image to animate):
The normalized vertical growth rate and the glaciation rate were both strong. In this case, I was confident enough to use the ProbSevere by itself to issue a severe thunderstorm warning. I started drawing the warning polygon prior to the highest percentage coming from ProbSevere. In the end, my polygon was issued nearly coincident with the highest probabilities.
Mahale
The normalized vertical growth rate and the glaciation rate were both strong. In this case, I was confident enough to use the ProbSevere by itself to issue a severe thunderstorm warning. I started drawing the warning polygon prior to the highest percentage coming from ProbSevere. In the end, my polygon was issued nearly coincident with the highest probabilities.
Mahale
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