ProbSevere in Utah

Though far outside of our forecasters' CWAs of operation, a lone storm in southern Utah gradually increased in ProbSevere probability. It was 50% at 19:12Z (Figure 1), then fluctuated between 30% and 50% until 19:26Z when it reached almost 60% (Figure 2), and rapidly rose to 76% (Figure 3) and then 91% at 19:32Z (Figure 4), when it was warned by the National Weather Service. No reports have been received yet.

Figure 1: ProbSevere, composite reflectivity, visible reflectance, and NWS severe weather warnings at 19:12Z.

Figure 2: ProbSevere, composite reflectivity, visible reflectance, and NWS severe weather warnings at 19:26Z.

Figure 3: ProbSevere, composite reflectivity, visible reflectance, and NWS severe weather warnings at 19:30Z.

Figure 4: ProbSevere, composite reflectivity, visible reflectance, and NWS severe weather warnings at 19:34Z.

-Cintineo