ProbSevere and experimental warnings

Our forecast teams in Midland and Lubbock have been coordinating on experimental severe thunderstorm warnings, as storms blew up under a moderate cirrus shield (Figure 1). ProbSevere has served to increase confidence and prompt warnings, where the probability jumps up quickly.

Figure 1: ProbSevere, MRMS composite reflectivity, and HWT experimental warnings.

For instance, in the northernmost two warnings, a forecaster in Midland shared with me that the probability jumping from 9% to 35% in a few scans gave him enough confidence to pull the trigger on an experimental warning in this high-MUCAPE moderate-shear environment. Golf ball and quarter-sized hail have been reported in several of the southern warnings.

-Cintineo