Total lightning IOP plans

At 1:30 PM, the the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) showed lightning activity along the northern Mississippi-Alabama border. The 00Z 20 May NSSL-WRF run in support of the NSSL/SPC EFP shows continued evolution of this convection toward central Alabama by 00-02Z this evening.

The lightning threat field in the NSSL-WRF using the McCaul blended vertically integrated ice / graupel flux method shows lightning activity extending north-south through Alabama at 1Z. The predicted flash rates are somewhat less over the far northern part of the domain.

An intensive operations period is planned in the EWP over the northern Alabama domain beginning 23Z, where Pseudo-GLM total lightning data derived from the NALMA will be examined along traditional radar-based warning methodology for insight about the location and trends of the most intense updrafts and enhanced threat for severe weather. If the model forecasts verify, we expect the most intense convection over central Alabama with weaker convection over the northern part of the state.