NSSL-WRF simulated satellite WV imagery from 5/19/2010

This morning we compared some of the output from the simulated satellite imagery from yesterday's severe weather over Oklahoma. The images attached represent the 2300 UTC band 9 (~6.9 micron) imagery forecasts from both CIRA and UW-CIMSS from yesterday's 0Z run of the NSSL-WRF, as well as the 2302 UTC observed WV image from GOES-13. It should be noted that the forecast imagery and the actual observed imagery do not represent the exact same wavelength (6.9 vs 6.7 micron), so the colors on the enhancement and the extent of cold cloud tops will not be exactly the same. Nonetheless, we were able to make some general comparisons and observations from examining the imagery.

May 19, 2010 2302 UTC observed GOES-E WV imagery
May 19, 2010 2300 UTC NSSL-WRF CIRA simulated GOES-R band 9 imagery
May 19, 2010 2300 UTC NSSL-WRF UW-CIMSS simulated GOES-R band 9 imagery

Overall, the NSSL-WRF did a good job simulating the location and timing of convection over most of the CONUS. Terrain induced convection along the Rockies was also well captured by the model. There were a few places where the NSSL-WRF may have been a little fast (such as southern OK) or a little slow (such as over LA) in developing convection. The simulated satellite imagery correctly estimated the timing, location and extent of the development of storms over northern OK that ended up having many severe storm reports, including multiple tornadoes.

Comparing the two simulated satellite outputs, we can see a difference between the two runs, with the CIRA trending towards 'warmer' images (increase in red hues). The two outputs provided by UW-CIMSS and CIRA have different methods of performing the radiative transfer within the model. It is expected that this is the cause of the differences, and these will be examined in more detail next week when participants directly related to the simulated satellite imagery arrive.