Bullseye over Norman

1630 UTC SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook
Today's SPC convective outlook has a high risk for severe weather located directly over Norman, OK and the OKC metro. SPC forecasters are expecting a 30% hatched chance of tornado, 45% hatched chance of severe hail and 30% chance of severe wind due to the high amounts of CAPE and weak capping over a wide area from central TX up into southern KS and eastward into western AR. Sounding hodographs are already strongly curved in the area covered by the moderate and models expect them the strengthen into the afternoon, leading to an increase in tornadic potential.

The EFP has been making forecasts for severe weather over the area throughout the morning (see image below). Currently we are monitoring the convective initiation products in expectation of initial convection to develop relatively rapidly in the afternoon (see image below). We have discovered that the SATCAST product is not currently providing output during 7-min Rapid-Scan Operation (RSO) scans. The product still works during the normal 15-min CONUS scans during the RSO. It has been pointed out to the developers and hopefully this will be added soon, which is expected to greatly increase their capability to detect and follow cloud objects. EWP operations will begin in the next few hours and will also monitor the convective initiation products.

EFP participants making their morning forecasts
GOES-R Risk Reduction Visiting Scientist John Walker monitoring the SATCAST convective initiation nowcasts.

Stay tuned...