2240Z: Heading into 23Z, ProbSevere indicated a likely severe storm SE of ABQ with ProbWind 88%, ProbHail 76%, & even ProbTor of 21%. MESH values are slightly higher than 1", & the prescence of a mid-level mesocyclone along with -20C reflectivity greater than 50 dBZ all indicating the potential for severe hail.
Interestingly enough, there continues to be little correlation between increasing trends in the GLM fields & increasing storm severity (gif below). This has been noted in past HWTs with western storms which may be a limitation with using GLM products in this region.
Zooming out, GOES-16 IR/VIS data shows some cu development & cooling cloud tops across southern NM.
Looking at the CI fields, not too much is expected with this development with values generally 50% or lower & severe CI probs only around 10%
And finally, little to no increasing trend in GLM Flash Density makes me even more confident in anticipating little to no development of this convection over southern NM
Peter Sunday
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