Week 4 Day 1 Wrap Up

We wrapped up yesterday's activities operating in Wilmington, OH and Albuquerque, NM. While there was wide spread convection, the severe potential was pretty marginal. Feedback is posted below:

ProbSevere

Provided very good confidence in the area with the storms moving through ABQ area

Seemed to be pretty well correlated with the radar characteristics

One storm the GLM lightning data provided more lead time than the ProbSevere did. The
ProbSevere took a few minutes to catch up with the features

Did good to provide awareness for which storms to track

Great tool to use with typical radar techniques

Good to use in comparison with other storms

Seemed to give more inflated values for a cluster of storms moving over Albuquerque

Use of a more segmented color curve might be more useful than the smooth gradient

Making it flash would be another idea

Liked having the full readout to see what all is going into the product

NUCAPS

Like having the color coding and point and click to pull it up from that location

CAPE values were actually quite a bit too high in ABQ yesterday due to really steep low level and
mid-level lapse rates that were a bit too steep

Being able to get multiple soundings from an area is very useful

All-Sky LAP

The CAPE gradients highlighted areas and was used as an observational check to the SPC
mesoanalysis. Nice to use in conjunction with other tools.

Values were a little low for the CAPE values as is usually the case

Having the all-sky with higher temporal resolution would be better. Having every 5 minutes would be
great.

Using a higher resolution model would probably be better or something to get a better gradient
between the non GFS and the clear or cloudy sky regions.

CI

It’s a little blocky or choppy looking, and taking out the lower end of the probabilities might take out
some of the noise and jumpiness of the data.

Did do pretty good in a null case of anticipating areas that were less likely for convection to form

Was able to compare the GOES West and Goes East in ABQ and having the increased time resolution
and spatial resolution from GOES East is much better

There were very many sporadic drastic jumps especially in the severe CI product where it would go
from 10 to 90 back to 10 which hurt the confidence in the product.

Would much rather see a steady increase or decrease instead of the sporadic jumps to increase the
confidence in the product.

Didn’t show any values for some of the more agitated cumulus areas

Cases where radar data is not available or less available it could be a beneficial product to continue to
work on and improve.

GLM

Used it a lot and was helpful for looking at lightning trends

Used Flash Extent Density the most

Not very strong correlation between lightning and severe weather in New Mexico.

There was not very much change in the FED in New Mexico as the storms were ramping up and
ramping down

FED and flash area seemed to do well to distinguish between some of the newer updrafts from some
of the older storms.

Mainly used the 5 minute with 1 minute update

The 1 minute data was a little noisy

The 2 minute data matches up well with the MRMS data and updates

Liked the color curve for the FED and was able to see some trends

The flash area curve seemed to be a little harder to see some of the trends