Tuesday, June 20, 2017

KDDC: SVR issuance based on Prob Severe



The cell in the middle of the image rapidly intensified with Prob Severe of 95% for hail and a MESH of 2.50 inches. Based on this alone I had enough confidence to issue a new warning with the environment and previous storm in the same region.

 At 4:32pm, right when the warning was issued, a report of 2.5" inch all was reported.

These storms today in the NW DDC area have been producing large hail, and the Prob Hail model within Prob Severe has been very consistent with what has been observed, and giving confidence in issuance of other experimental severe thunderstorm warnings in the region.

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