The post about a severe wind gust in the Chicago WFO (http://goesrhwt.blogspot.com/2017/06/prob-severe-severe-outflow-wind-report.html) offers insight on a subtle, yet important point that should be communicated to ProbSevere users in the training module. In this example, a storm produced strong outflow winds that raised away from the reflectivity core far enough such that it no longer was encompassed by the ProbSevere object. As a result, the ProbSevere (ProbWind) probability was 0%. For storms were outflow is expected to race away from the reflectivity core, users should be aware the ProbWind model may underestimate (possibly by a large amount) the probability of severe winds. Additionally, this is another example of where maximum velocity magnitude could be a very useful observation for the automated prediction/detection of severe winds.
-Sieglaff
No comments:
Post a Comment