Shifting Severe Threat Focus

Main Points:

•  GOES-16 derived stability: No changes to southern CWA, still not expecting deep convective growth.
• Main focus is dry sub-cloud layers and convective outflow threat. Surface obs/msas were main data used to have confidence in outflow threat

After inspecting GOES16 derived stability plots, have not seen any changes to the environment in the southern CWA ahead of the line of storms. Basically low instability and lack of Cu field development in VIS. MSAS dewpoint depression shows 30+ degrees of dew point depression, so this piece of information was used to continue to monitor threat for outflows. Think usefulness in lightning and Prob-severe is of limited use at this stage since not looking at renewed deep convection due to low instability and overall low lightning amounts due to the lack of deep convection as well. --Tahoe.