Severe T-Storm Warning for Ashe County, NC

I was tracking a potential severe thunderstorm that was quickly developing just outside of the CWA in North Carolina.

I decided to put a warning on the cell because the Sigma for the lightning jump algorithm went to 1 (marginal) but the Prob. Severe jumped up to 82% very fast.

We have been checking with the NWS Chat window all afternoon and a trained spotter in Ashland in Ashe County reported quarter sized hail at 2250z. The warning I put out verified thanks to the heads up with the lightning jump detection and the Prob Severe Model.

-BW