Overall Thoughts From Monday, May 2, 2016 - Prob Severe and Lightning Jump Helpful!

Overall, the Prob Severe model once again was a great asset for situational awareness for the storms for the Blacksburg, Virginia forecast area. It provided a heads up to the storms to watch for possible warnings. It was especially useful for when the Prob Severe values jumped quickly. This seemed to lead to an increase in reflectivity aloft via all tilts, and gave more confidence for issuing Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. The lightning jump product was also quite helpful with evaluating which storms to watch (similar to a jump in Prob Severe). This gave more confidence for issuing warnings with storms that showed the jumps in Prob Severe and lightning. JJW