Monday, May 2, 2016

The Value of Prob Severe and the Lightning Jump Algorithm on Warning Operations

An impressive supercell took shape in Fauquier county, Virginia earlier this evening. This supercell tracked east towards D.C. then split around the city. The right mover maintained a large hail core and even had a large TBSS. The left mover took a sharp turn to the left and appeared to weaken but the ProbSevere prompted me to reissue a warning for the left moving cell. On the next radar scan, ProbSevere peaked back up as the cell strengthened. Both the left and right movers maintained strength and near 100% ProbSevere Probabilities for at least 1.5 more hours.

Earlier in the storm evolution... (ProbSevere overlaid on top left panel with MRMS Composite Reflectivity, MRMS MESH on top right, MRMS Reflectivity at -20C on bottom left, MRMS Mid-level rotation track on bottom right)

A little bit later...
There was also significant lightning jumps shown by the GOES-R Lightning Jump Detection Algorithm. The max lightning jump was 8.0 Sigma near the time that the supercell split into right and left moving cells.
GOES-R Lightning Jump Detection Algorithm overlaid with KLWX Radar Reflectivity.
~Lilly Miller~

No comments:

Post a Comment