Giles County VA Severe Thunderstorm Warning - 2 Sigma Lightning Jump But Delayed Prob Severe Jump.

I issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Giles County, as this cell showed a three body scatter spike on the all tilts reflectivity product. The Prob Severe model did not show much, as it was mainly between 20% and 25% for the past 10 minutes or so. There was a 2 sigma lightning jump (not shown) with this cell, which combined with the low Prob Severe values would not have alerted me to this cell as being potentially severe. Update: The Prob Severe values jumped to the 75% to 80% range about 5 minutes after I issued the Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Classic three body scatter spike with this cell. 1.00 inch hail up to 1 inch deep in far southern Monroe County (in warning) at 2000 UTC. Also, 1.75 inch hail in Giles County at 2015 UTC. JJW