Floyd County VA Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Prob Severe Jump Due To Flash Rate Jump.

I issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Floyd County VA, due in part to the Prob Severe Model showing a dramatic increase from 48% at 1901 UTC to 91% by 1911 UTC. The only real change was a quick increase in the flash rate, which increased from 8 to 47 flashes per minute. This, along with using the all tilts reflectivity, gave me increased confidence to issue the Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Update: 1.00 inch hail reported at 1922 UTC with this storm. JJW