GOES LAP derived imagery proved to be quite useful in analyzing the environment prior to convective initiation today. The LAP CAPE imagery showed values of 2000 to 2500 over the CWA early this afternoon ahead of the dry line.
Convection started to develop on the western edge of the sharp CAPE gradient shown on the LAP imagery between 1 and 2 PM. The GOES CI algorithm showed increasing probabilities of convective development over the western half of the CWA by around 19Z, which ended up being accurate.
With good instability and Effective Bulk Shear values of 35 to 45 Kt in place, convection developed into thunderstorms fairly quickly. We ended up issuing numerous severe thunderstorm warnings and several tornado warnings. There were numerous hail reports from 1"-1.75" that verified some of the thunderstorm warnings. And at least 2 tornadoes were reported on the ground, including one that appeared to fairly strong and long-lived. The CIMSS Prob Severe Algorithm proved to be a useful tool today. We noted that sharp increases in the Prob Severe values seemed to coincide with stronger radar reflectivity signatures developing in the hail growth region. We also found some utility looking for lightning flash rate increases prior to the development of severe weather.
- JP/Yodamaster777
No comments:
Post a Comment