ProbSevere in Lincoln, NE

Amidst the tornado warning for the National Weather Center in Norman and photogenic (and tragically deadly) tornadoes to our south and southeast, storms have been quite active across the Plains. A slowly moving storm heading toward Lincoln, NE, had a strong glaciation rate and moderate satellite growth rate, as well as steadily increasing MESH and total flash rate of 25-35 flashes/min to increase the probability of severe to the 70-80% range, in the midst of large MUCAPE and moderate effective shear. An official NWS warning was issued at 20:56Z, 22 minutes after the first probability ≥ 70% (jumped from 45%). Softball-sized hail was later measured in Lincoln proper, as the probability topped out at 99%.

The figure below shows an animation from the ProbSevere website.

Fig. 1: ProbSevere contours, MRMS composite reflectivity, and GOES-East visible imagery near Lincoln, NE.