ProbSevere HUN Highest of day with Rotating Cell

ProbSevere achieved its highest percentage with a storm over northern Alabama that was rotating at 73%. Satellite growth rates were really strong with this storm and whether coincidence or not the ProbSevere did the best with what was easily the most dangerous storm of the day. Compared to other probsevere ratings today...it was the highest by over 20%. Below is a screen capture of the highlighted cell. Note that the actual rotation of concern was outside of the probsevere highlighted area just to the east. Included is a .gif of the progression of ProbSevere in this situation. -Jason Bourne

2030-2250 UTC GOES-14 SRSOR MEGA-LOOP

The 1-min loop over the past few hours provides the user with the aesthetic and meteorological beauty of the GOES-14 SRSOR-1-min imagery.

For example, a short-wave can be seen over IA, with plenty of post frontal stratocumulus and cumulus over the upper Midwest, western Great Lakes Region, and IL.

Upper level cirrus, and anvil blow-off from the convection over KY, TN, and OH continues to move into the central Great Lakes Region ahead of the cold front.

Finally, the overshooting tops and cumulonimbus evolution of the strong to severe thunderstorms can be beautifully seen over the TN Valley, Midwest, and the OH Valley.

May the Force be with You!

-Yodamaster777

NUCAPS Cross-Section Shows Cold Front

We learned today that we are able to look cross sections of NUCAPS data. With a cold front moving through the midwest toward the Ohio Valley today, we took a look at the 19Z NUCAPS data from the Suomi-NPP satellite pass. Below is a cross section of equivalent potential temperature (Theta E) running from northern Florida up through central Kansas.

In this image, Florida is to the right and Kansas is to the left. Based on METAR observations, the cold front was oriented over central Missouri and Arkansas at 19Z. The cold front appears to be approximately 600 km from western-most point of the cross-section.  Lower theta-E values can been at the lower levels west of this point, with the isotherms sloping upward from east to west on the cool side of the frontal boundary. This is a cool way to visualize the location and structure of a frontal boundary! -JP

Very High Lightning Flash Density Animation

Here is an animation of some very high lightning flash rates with a warned storm in Northern Alabama. These flash rates were the highest of the day. After re-evaluating the color curves presented for a flash rate this high, I determined I preferred the upper right color curve. This stood out the most to me and also did not mimic the color scale from other products like the default does. This storm also had a lightning jump of 6 sigma (top right in figure 2) which was one of the highest we saw of the day. Using the PGLM and the Lightning Jump products in tandem was a great confidence booster for warnings. As far as the PGLM was concerned I like that it is not tied to the individual cell as it can give an idea of how far away from the storm that lightning can travel. I could see this being a useful visual presentation for an Emergency Manager trying to decide to evacuate a stadium full of people or not. -Jason Bourne

NUCAPS Pop-Up SKEW-T

One of the beautiful things about NUCAPS in AWIPS is the ability to view pop-up Skew-T's.  One can move the cursor over the points from the Met-Op satellite. These pop-up Skew-T can give a quick-look of thermodynamic profile across the green dots.  Some of the yellow dots may look good too.  Overall, Pop-Up Skew-T's they rule!!!

Also, the cross-section is shown in the main-image, as the Pop-Up Skew-T is in the upper left.

-Yodamaster777

pGLM Color Table Discussion (continued)

One cell in the northern portion of Huntsville's forecast area produced a tremendous amount of lightning  in the last 2 mins.

At 2200 UTC, the pGLM Total lightning rate increased significantly for near full usage of the color tables.  After further review, the upper right looks like the best one transitioning from cool to warm colors, and then back to cool.

The cell at 2216 UTC started to produce over 120+ flashes per 2 minutes with a transition to white colors in all the color tables.  I like the lower left less now, and like the right two panels more.

At 2218 UTC, my final thoughts are the upper right "takes the cake", as my favorite color table for the HWT GOES-R testbed.

-Yodamaster777

PGLM compare and contrast

We were finally lucky enough to use the PGLM lightning tool today.  I found it visually pleasing and useful.  I like that fact that once you figure out the scale, it immediately conveys the severity of the lightning.  For example.

I learned that anything over dark blue (in the default frame) is OVER 30 flashes.
That's all I need to know.  I can tell by looking at this storm that there is a LOT of lightning.  If I want to get the exact amount I can scroll over, but I don't need to.  It's like a visual threshold for me.  I prefer the non-pixelated version, and as far as color tables...I prefer the default. I initially chose the top right corner because it was more intuitive with red bring stronger, but the blues in the default give a very clear demarcation of major vs. minor lightning.
-StormFront

Random Michigan storm

A storm in lower Michigan stood out from a line of weak to moderate convection, thanks to increasing severe probability from the NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model. The storm, which was outside of the SPC marginal severe outlook, had steadily increasing MRMS MESH and flash rate before the warning was issued, at 21:42Z. ProbSevere was ≥ 50% fourteen minutes prior to the warning and ≥ 80% 4 minutes prior to the warning. Every other identified storm in Michigan had a probability of 5% or less. So far, no reports have been received.

Fig. 1: ProbSevere contours, MRMS composite reflectivity, and 5-min NLDN CG flashes in AWIPS2. Notice how this storm clearly stands out from all of its neighbors in the state

Fig. 2: KDTX base reflectivity and severe thunderstorm warning.

CI Shows Additional Convective Threat With Trailing Cold Front

The main band of showers and thunderstorms has mostly cleared the Nashville CWA at this point. However, the CI algorithm has been highlighting convective potential along the pre-frontal trough and then along the trailing cold front later this afternoon and this evening. The CI values have been fairly modest, and the severe CI are low, so we are not expecting the additional showers moving in over the next few hours to be all that strong.

MRMS mosaic 0.5 deg. radar is now showing some better developed echoes associated with the pre-frontal trough draped from western TN down through northern MS and south AR. There are also some weak echoes showing up from south IL down through the MO panhandle associated with the cold front. -JP

pGLM Color Tables Thoughts

The activity has been kind of quiet over OHX forecast area.  However, here are some thoughts on the pGLM color tables.

Preference is for the color table in the upper right or lower left. They work the opposite from each other going from warmer to cooler colors in the lower left panel, and cooler to warmer colors in the upper right.  I do not like the color table in the upper left panel, since it is an AWIPS default color scheme for other convective parameters such as CAPE, stability indices, etc.  The lower right is decent but goes from gray-scale to cooler colors, and then to the warm or HOT colors.  It might take some time to make this jump.

-Yodamaster777