Random Michigan storm

A storm in lower Michigan stood out from a line of weak to moderate convection, thanks to increasing severe probability from the NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model. The storm, which was outside of the SPC marginal severe outlook, had steadily increasing MRMS MESH and flash rate before the warning was issued, at 21:42Z. ProbSevere was ≥ 50% fourteen minutes prior to the warning and ≥ 80% 4 minutes prior to the warning. Every other identified storm in Michigan had a probability of 5% or less. So far, no reports have been received.

Fig. 1: ProbSevere contours, MRMS composite reflectivity, and 5-min NLDN CG flashes in AWIPS2. Notice how this storm clearly stands out from all of its neighbors in the state

Fig. 2: KDTX base reflectivity and severe thunderstorm warning.