However, immediately after warning issuance, the ProbSevere cluster did split into 2 clusters with very high probs (>90%) and distinct characteristics.
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Severe Thunderstorm Warning #13 - Oklahoma
This storm in southwest OK had marginal radar signatures, but I chose to warn on it to highlight issues with the tracking algorithm with both ProbSevere and the lightning jump. The storm of concern (northwestern most storm) was close to an existing storm, so the ProbSevere and lightning jumps clusters for both storms had merged.
However, immediately after warning issuance, the ProbSevere cluster did split into 2 clusters with very high probs (>90%) and distinct characteristics.
-Toki Wartooth
However, immediately after warning issuance, the ProbSevere cluster did split into 2 clusters with very high probs (>90%) and distinct characteristics.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning #14 - Oklahoma
WUUS54 KOUN 262145
SVROUN
OKC011-043-093-262215-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0122.160426T2145Z-160426T2215Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
444 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 515 PM CDT
* AT 444 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF OAKWOOD...OR 11 MILES EAST OF TALOGA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORION...CANTON LAKE AND HUCMAC.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3593 9867 3598 9889 3634 9883 3628 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 194DEG 24KT 3603 9876
$$
BMS
Severe Thunderstorm Warning #12 - Oklahoma
WUUS54 KOUN 262134
SVROUN
OKC031-065-075-141-TXC487-262200-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0120.160426T2134Z-160426T2200Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
433 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTH CENTRAL WILBARGER COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 500 PM CDT
* AT 433 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TIPTON...OR 11 MILES WEST OF FREDERICK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...SNYDER...TIPTON...MOUNTAIN PARK...ROOSEVELT...HEADRICK...HUMPHREYS...TOM STEED RESERVOIR AND HESS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
&&
LAT...LON 3432 9917 3441 9935 3487 9908 3473 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 210DEG 41KT 3444 9921
$$
BMS
CIMMS Precipitable Water Image Confirms Dryline Presence and Convective Focus
The low to mid level channels of CIMMS Precipitable Water values show a well defined gradient for convective focus with the Layer Precipitable Water values depicting the tighest portion of the gradient in the dry-line region. Surface wind patterns confirm low level winds showing a more southeasterly component over southern Kansas.
NUCAPS depicted precipitable water values on either side of the dryline in South Central KS revealed conistency within 5 percent on the dry side and errors of around 15 to 20 percent in the adjacent moist sector. Due to time constraints, no modifications were made to the NUCAPS soundings, and speculation is that the two products could be in even closer agreement if the dewpoints in the moist sector were manually adusted upwards to reflect surface observations.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning #11 - Oklahoma
I was considering not re-issuing on the storm in northern Oklahoma since the radar signatures are fairly borderline and there have not been any spotter reports lately. However, ProbSevere remains in excess of 70% and there was a 4-sigma lightning jump. Given those signatures and the environment, I ended up re-issuing the warning.
-Toki Wartooth
-Toki Wartooth
Severe Thunderstorm Warning #10 - Oklahoma
WWUS54 KOUN 262116
SVSOUN
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
415 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
OKC065-141-TXC197-487-262145-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0118.000000T0000Z-160426T2145Z/
JACKSON OK-TILLMAN OK-HARDEMAN TX-WILBARGER TX-
415 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...WEST CENTRAL TILLMAN...EASTERN HARDEMAN AND NORTHWESTERN WILBARGER COUNTIES...
AT 415 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ODELL...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF VERNON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHILLICOTHE...ELMER...ODELL...FARGO AND HESS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3422 9940 3423 9952 3456 9936 3442 9908
3423 9928
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 211DEG 25KT 3428 9939
$$
BMS
16:13 - Trained Weather Spotters have reported Tennis Ball Sized Hail (2.50") in Crowell (Foard County, TX)
Forecaster: Schuerman
Severe Thunderstorm Warning #9 - Oklahoma
Signatures on the storm in northern Oklahoma continued to indicate that the storm is at severe levels. ProbSevere is at 83%, although there is no lightning jump. I suspect the lack of a lightning jump has to do with the fact that the storm has been at severe levels for nearly an hour. We are also keeping an eye on some weak rotation within this storm.
-Toki Wartooth
Severe Thunderstorm Warning #8 - Oklahoma
WUUS54 KOUN 262110
SVROUN
OKC011-039-043-093-262200-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0117.160426T2110Z-160426T2200Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
409 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTH CENTRAL MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 500 PM CDT
* AT 409 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF THOMAS...OR 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TALOGA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
THOMAS...CANTON...LONGDALE...OAKWOOD...EAGLE CITY AND CANTON LAKE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3620 9838 3617 9841 3587 9863 3572 9875
3580 9890 3627 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 209DEG 25KT 3584 9881
$$
BMS
ProbSevere with first storm in Topeka
Convection devleoped quickly along an outflow boudnary in the Topeka, KS CWA. ProbSevere probabilities started at 45% with the first storm at 1948 UTC, with strong satellite growth rates in a favorable environment. 10 minutes later (1958 UTC), ProbSevere had increased to 60% with the storm as MESH increased. Probabilities were up to 86% at 2002 UTC, and 89% at 2006 UTC.
The Topeka WFO issued a severe thunderstorm warning on the storm at 2007 UTC. The probabilities actually reached 100% at 2036 UTC.
Quarter sized hail was reported with this storm at 2028 UTC, 30 minutes after the first ProbSevere >50%, and 26 minutes after the probabilities first increased to over 80%. The strong satellite growth rates really helped to raise ProbSevere probabilities quickly early in the devleopment of this storm.
The Topeka WFO issued a severe thunderstorm warning on the storm at 2007 UTC. The probabilities actually reached 100% at 2036 UTC.
Quarter sized hail was reported with this storm at 2028 UTC, 30 minutes after the first ProbSevere >50%, and 26 minutes after the probabilities first increased to over 80%. The strong satellite growth rates really helped to raise ProbSevere probabilities quickly early in the devleopment of this storm.
Blue Sky SVR from Severe CI Prob
87 percent Severe CI Prob, so I'll test it's utility. Blue Sky SVR. Max was 90 minutes, decided to issue starting a county away from the current cloud.
Currently this is Fizzle McFizzle
Let's see what happens.
Hey hey! Here's a developing tower at the beginning of the polygon!
BAJ
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