ProbSevere with first storm in Topeka

Convection devleoped quickly along an outflow boudnary in the Topeka, KS CWA. ProbSevere probabilities started at 45% with the first storm at 1948 UTC, with strong satellite growth rates in a favorable environment. 10 minutes later (1958 UTC), ProbSevere had increased to 60% with the storm as MESH increased. Probabilities were up to 86% at 2002 UTC, and 89% at 2006 UTC.

The Topeka WFO issued a severe thunderstorm warning on the storm at 2007 UTC. The probabilities actually reached 100% at 2036 UTC.

Quarter sized hail was reported with this storm at 2028 UTC, 30 minutes after the first ProbSevere >50%, and 26 minutes after the probabilities first increased to over 80%. The strong satellite growth rates really helped to raise ProbSevere probabilities quickly early in the devleopment of this storm.