Rapid City's Mesoanalysis/Analysis/Warning Operations

Noticing a gradient in instability within the UNR forecast area. Will put image in showing this.  It is comparable to the NAM12 gradient in instability.  Did notice that the Layer precipitable H20 also has a gradient in moisture spreading into the eastern half of the forecaster area but especially to the east over Aberdeen.

 Would expect additional increase in intensity as storms that area already developing across the northeastern sector of Wyoming. Am noticing that the highest Prob products (severe, hail, and wind) are coinciding with the strongest updrafts within the storms located over Billings area (2102Z).  Did look at a few NUCAPEs soundings which show a pronounced dry layer from 700mb-sfc. In a NUCAPEs sounding, I do like the readout but would like to see where the cloud layer is, instability, PWATs, etc.; displayed on that readout so that when we move mouse over individual points we can instantly see that data (rather than having to click on each individual point.  Will try to insert an image to better describe.

The GOES R GLM data is challenging to understand given how far northwest in the CONUS this is.  Seeing a lot of parallax. So, not sure its too useful for this office until GOES-S becomes operational.  Loaded ENTLN and NLDN into a procedure to compare with the GLM data and garner a better picture of lightning. 

The UAH CI product had lapses in time or late between 2032-2100Z data. It was affecting my procedures that had both satellite and UAH CI data.

Noticed that core of storm in western portion of UNR CWA had a distinct reflectivity gradient while Prob hail was decreasing. So, it could be that the hail was descending from the core. Given the dry air layer in the environment, it may be more of a microburst than hail impact with this storm. Went ahead and issued a severe for 60 MPH and nickel sized hail. Prob Severe, prob hail, and prob wind then increased on the next couple of scans attendant with the storms moving over the gradient in instability at 2206Z.

Prob Hail was actually higher than Prob Wind at times which was a little surprising given the prevailing environment but may be because the storms were a little more elevated.  As additional storms moved into the "gradient of highest CAPE" in UNRs northern area the Prob Severe and Prob Hail increased.  I do like the cursor readouts with the Prob Severe/hail that include CAPE within the hail growth zone and MESH.

Some other notes: I think it would be helpful to have Near Storm Environment Cursor Readout to compare what we are seeing in NUCAPs, GOES- All-Sky LAP products for hail and wind environments.

Did notice that the warnings we are issuing are in all caps and don't have the tags on them (tornado/hail/wind) at the bottom. Perhaps to make it more high fidelity, it may be useful to have that as well.

The area was loud while other HWT participants (another project) came into our area and were talking for an hour or two about everything but the project.

V/R
Supercell