A weak upper-level disturbance moving across northern central and northeast Wyoming south central and southeast Montana will help provide weak synoptic scale lift. Steeping lapse rates and increase CAPE into the afternoon will help the further development of thunderstorms. Dry low levels will enhance an isolated threat of strong thunderstorm outflow winds if storms become strong and or form an organized line of thunderstorms. Mid to upper level jet between 30-50 kts.
ProbSevere did well on alerting the forecaster to the strongest storm of the day, and which storm to pay closer attention to.
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| ProbSevere Upper Left Showing the Strongest Storm in Pink Polygon |
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As shown the ProbSevere is showing a strong to severe storm with ProbHail trend up with each consecutive volume scan. This image was captured right before the warning was issued. Mesh was estimating 1.51 inch hail. Also notice the lower right panel at nearly 21kft and the 50 to 60 dbz echos at this altitude.
Another graphic that was used was to look at the radar refl. between -10 and -20 degree C layer and determine if there was radar returns in this temperature layer over 50 dbz.
GOES All-Sky LAP Products:
A 4 panel was created to show the K Index, the Parcel Lifted Index, and the CAPE, with a 0.5 Refl panel. The panels showed the storms were moving east into increasing instability.
A 4 panel was created to show the All-Sky Lap Products PW layers Sfc-900mb, 900mb-700mb, 700mb-300mb, and 0.5 Refl. This image shows that the storms were moving into increasing 900mb-700mb moisture.
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