ProbWind Model

The ProbWind model has done a good job handling the wind potential along the QLCS moving across NY/PA into northern NJ. Of course, this is a relatively simple example, but the base velocity from KDIX (Fig 1) is indicating wind speeds in excess of 70 kts (at a beam height of 8 kft). Meanwhile the ProbWind model (Fig 2) is indicating the probability of severe wind at 85%. This is much higher than the wind numbers I have observed from other storms.

Fig 1. KDIX Base Velocity at 1940 UTC observing wind gusts at or slightly above 70 kts.

Fig 2. ProbWind at 1936 UTC indicating 85% probability of severe wind.