Working ALY desk today. A frontal boundary is slipping south and east across the southern portion of the forecast area. Significant convection is already occurring along the boundary including a few large hail producing supercells. Moderately unstable airmass is shown over the region south of the boundary, with CAPE values on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong bulk shear around 60kts is more than sufficient to produce the rotating storms that are evident.
Alex Brown
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| 19Z surface plot 1926Z visible satellite clearly show boundary & intense convection |
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| 18Z AllSkyLAP CAPE showing moderate instability over far southern forecast area |
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| 18Z NUCAPS sounding over far southern forecast area |
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